Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

A spatial multicriteria model for urban accessibility mapping

Accessibility is nowadays an important issue for the development of cities. It is seen as a priority in order toguarantee equal access to fundamental rights, to improve the quality of life of citizens and to ensure that everyone, regardless of age, mobility or ability, have equal access to all the resources and benefits cities have to offer. Consequently, factors closely related to the accessibility have gained a higher relevance for identifying and assessing the location of urban facilities. The main goal of the paper is to present an accessibility evaluation model applied in Santarém, in Brazil, a city located midway between the larger cities of Belem and Manaus. The research instruments, sampling method and data analysis proposed for mapping urban accessibility are described. Daily activities were used to identify and group key destinations. The model was implemented within a geographic information system and integrates the individualâ s perspective through the definition of each key destination weight, reflecting their significance for daily activities in the urban area. Accessibility to key destinations was mapped over 24 districts of the city of Santarém. The results of this model application can support city administration decision-making for new investments in order to improve urban quality of life.

A GIS extension model to calculate urban heat island intensity based on urban geometry

This paper presents a simulation model, which was incorporated into a Geographic Information System (GIS), in order to calculate the maximum intensity of urban heat islands based on urban geometry data. The method-ology of this study stands on a theoretical-numerical basis (Okeâ s model), followed by the study and selection of existing GIS tools, the design of the calculation model, the incorporation of the resulting algorithm into the GIS platform and the application of the tool, developed as exemplification. The developed tool will help researchers to simulate UHI in different urban scenarios.

Multilevel model of safety climate for furniture industries

BACKGROUND: Furniture companies can analyze their safety status using quantitative measures. However, the data needed are not always available and the number of accidents is under-reported. Safety climate scales may be an alternative. However, there are no validated Portuguese scales that account for the specific attributes of the furniture sector. OBJECTIVE: The current study aims to develop and validate an instrument that uses a multilevel structure to measure the safety climate of the Portuguese furniture industry. METHODS: The Safety Climate in Wood Industries (SCWI) model was developed and applied to the safety climate analysis using three different scales: organizational, group and individual. A multilevel exploratory factor analysis was performed to analyze the factorial structure. The studied companies’ safety conditions were also analyzed. RESULTS: Different factorial structures were found between and within levels. In general, the results show the presence of a group-level safety climate. The scores of safety climates are directly and positively related to companies’ safety conditions; the organizational scale is the one that best reflects the actual safety conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The SCWI instrument allows for the identification of different safety climates in groups that comprise the same furniture company and it seems to reflect those groups’ safety conditions. The study also demonstrates the need for a multilevel analysis of the studied instrument.

Seismic vulnerability of vernacular buildings in urban centres: the case of Vila Real de Santo António

Following detailed studies of Portuguese vernacular building typologies, this paper deals with buildings located in historical urban centres. An analysis of the history of the urban centre and, in particular, of some vernacular buildings is enhanced. Additionally, a discussion on the influence of changes of the geometry, and on added built volumes to original buildings in the seismic vulnerability of the buildings is also provided.

Improving selective collection of urban waste using a business intelligence system

Today recovering urban waste requires effective management services, which usually imply sophisticated monitoring and analysis mechanisms. This is essential for the smooth running of the entire recycling process as well as for planning and control urban waste recovering. In this paper we present a business intelligence system especially designed and im- plemented to support regular decision-making tasks on urban waste management processes. The system provides a set of domain-oriented analytical tools for studying and characterizing poten- tial scenarios of collection processes of urban waste, as well as for supporting waste manage- ment in urban areas, allowing for the organization and optimization of collection services. In or- der to clarify the way the system was developed and the how it operates, particularly in process visualization and data analysis, we also present the organization model of the system, the ser- vices it disposes, and the interface platforms for exploring data.

Safety climate and its relationship with furniture companies’ safety performance and workers’ risk acceptance

This study aims to analyse the relationship between safety climate and the level of risk acceptance, as well as its relationship with workplace safety performance. The sample includes 14 companies and 403 workers. The safety climate assessment was performed by the application of a Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire and safety performance was assessed with a checklist. Judgements about risk acceptance were measured through questionnaires together with four other variables: trust, risk perception, benefit perception and emotion. Safety climate was found to be correlated with workgroup safety performance, and it also plays an important role in workers’ risk acceptance levels. Risk acceptance tends to be lower when safety climate scores of workgroups are high, and subsequently, their safety performance is better. These findings seem to be relevant, as they provide Occupational, Safety and Health practitioners with a better understanding of workers’ risk acceptance levels and of the differences among workgroups.

The urban morphology of Braga between Late Antiquity and the fourteenth-fifteenth centuries

This paper aims to approach the urban transformation processes occurring in the city of Braga between Late Antiquity and the fourteenth-fifteenth centuries. Our approach is based upon the cross-referencing of documental, iconographic and cartographic data with data emerging from archaeological works conducted across the city throughout the last two decades. Despite the scarcity in sources documenting the historical period under study, a similar circumstance registered in other western European cities, new and emerging archaeological data associated with a regressive analysis of available information for the forthcoming centuries —documents, maps, plans and illustrations, have been contributing towards an advance in the overall knowledge regarding the continuity and changing processes impacting upon the urban area of Braga. Thereby, our goal is to develop a synthesis work describing the major evolutionary stages happening in Braga from the fifth to the fifteenth centuries and based upon anintegrated analysis of the architectonic markers, the morphology present in the urban setting, the existing Christian topography, the defensive system and the main road network.

Influence of climate on clinical diagnostic dry eye tests: pilot study

Purpose. To analyze dry eye disease (DED) tests and their consistency in similar nonsymptomatic population samples living in two geographic locations with different climates (Continental vs. Atlantic). Methods. This is a pilot study including 14 nonsymptomatic residents from Valladolid (Continental climate, Spain) and 14 sex-matched and similarly aged residents from Braga (Atlantic climate, Portugal); they were assessed during the same season (spring) of two consecutive years. Phenol red thread test, conjunctival hyperemia, fluorescein tear breakup time, corneal and conjunctival staining, and Schirmer test were evaluated on three different consecutive visits. Reliability was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient and weighted kappa (J) coefficient for quantitative and ordinal variables, respectively. Results. Fourteen subjects were recruited in each city with a mean (TSD) age of 63.0 (T1.7) and 59.1 (T0.9) years (p = 0.08) in Valladolid and Braga, respectively. Intraclass correlation coefficient and J values of the tests performed were below 0.69 and 0.61, respectively, for both samples, thus showing moderate to poor reliability. Subsequently, comparisons were made between the results corresponding to the middle and higher outdoor relative humidity (RH) visit in each location as there were no differences in mean temperature (p Q 0.75) despite RH values significantly differing (p e 0.005). Significant (p e 0.05) differences were observed between Valladolid and Braga samples on tear breakup time (middle RH visit, 2.76 T 0.60 vs. 5.26 T 0.64 seconds; higher RH visit, 2.61 T 0.32 vs. 5.78 T 0.88 seconds) and corneal (middle RH, 0.64 T 0.17 vs. 0.14 T 0.10; higher RH, 0.60 T 0.22 vs. 0.0 T 0.0) and conjunctival staining (middle RH, 0.61 T 0.17 vs. 0.14 T 0.08; higher RH, 0.57 T 0.15 vs. 0.18 T 0.09). Conclusions. This pilot study provides initial evidence to support that DED test outcomes assessing the ocular surface integrity and tear stability are climate dependent. Future large-sample studies should support these outcomes also in DED patients. This knowledge is fundamental for multicenter clinical trials. Lack of consistency in diagnostic clinical tests for DED was also corroborated. (Optom Vis Sci 2015;92:e284Ye289)

Energy and carbon prices: a comparison of interactions in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and the Western Climate Initiative market

We provide a comparative analysis of how short-run variations in carbon and energy prices relate to each other in the emerging greenhouse gas market in California (Western Climate Initiative [WCI], and the European Union Emission Trading Scheme [EU ETS]). We characterize the relationship between carbon, gas, coal, electricity and gasoline prices and an indicator for economic activity, and present a first analysis of carbon prices in the WCI. We also provide a comparative analysis of the structures of the two markets. We estimate a vector autoregressive model and the impulse--response functions. Our main findings show a positive impact from a carbon shock toward electricity, in both markets, but larger in the WCI electricity price, indicating more efficiency. We propose that the widening of carbon market sectors, namely fuels transport and electricity imports, may contribute to this result. To conclude, the research shows significant and coherent relations between variables in WCI, which demonstrate some degree of success for a first year in operation. Reversely, the EU ETS should complete its intended market reform, to allow for more impact of the carbon price. Finally, in both markets, there is no evidence of carbon pricing depleting economic activity.

3D representation of the urban evolution of Braga using the cityengine tool

The morphological evolution of the city of Braga has been the subject of several studies focusing on different urban areas in different periods. Using the accumulated knowledge provided by the available archaeological, historical and iconographic data of Braga, from the Roman times to the nineteenth century, we intend to present a working methodology for 3D representation of urban areas and its evolution, using the CityEngine ESRI tool. Different types of graphic and cartographic data will be integrated in an archaeological information system for the characterization of urban buildings. Linking this information system to the rules of characterization of urban spaces through the CityEngine tool, we can create the 3D urban spaces and their changes. The building characterization rules include several parameters of architectural elements that can be dynamically changed according the latest information. This methodology will be applied to the best known areas within of the city allowing the creation of different and dynamic layouts. Considerations about the concepts, challenges and constraints of using the CityEngine tool for recording and representing urban evolution knowledge will be discussed.

The impact of urban noise on primary schools: perceptive evaluation and objective assessment

This paper aims to assess the impact of environmental noise in the vicinity of primary schools and to analyze its influence in the workplace and in student performance through perceptions and objective evaluation. The subjective evaluation consisted of the application of questionnaires to students and teachers, and the objective assessment consisted of measuring in situ noise levels. The survey covered nine classes located in three primary schools. Statistical Package for Social Sciences was used for data processing and to draw conclusions. Additionally, the relationship of the difference between environmental and background noise levels of each classroom and students with difficulties in hearing the teacherâ s voice was examined. Noise levels in front of the school, the schoolyard, and the most noise-exposed classrooms (occupied and unoccupied) were measured. Indoor noise levels were much higher than World Health Organization (WHO) recommended values: LAeq,30min averaged 70.5 dB(A) in occupied classrooms, and 38.6 dB(A) in unoccupied ones. Measurements of indoor and outdoor noise suggest that noise from the outside (road, schoolyard) affects the background noise level in classrooms but in varying degrees. It was concluded that the façades most exposed to road traffic noise are subjected to values higher than 55.0 dB(A), and noise levels inside the classrooms are mainly due to the schoolyard, students, and the road traffic. The difference between background (LA95,30min) and the equivalent noise levels (LAeq,30min) in occupied classrooms was 19.2 dB(A), which shows that studentsâ activities are a significant source of classroom noise.

Sustentabilidade do uso de água em zonas urbanas

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

The efficient use of water in the context of climate change

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Climate change research and policy in Portugal

This article offers a review of research and policy on climate change in Portugal and is organized into three main themes: scientific knowledge and assessment of climate change; policy analysis and evaluation; and public engagement. Modern scientific research on meteorology and climatology started in Portugal in the 1950s and a strong community of researchers in climate science, vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation has since developed, particularly in the last decade. Nevertheless, there are still many gaps in research, especially regarding the economic costs of climate change in Portugal and costs and benefits of adaptation. Governmental policies with a strong emphasis on mitigation were introduced at the end of the 1990s. As greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise beyond its Kyoto target for 2012, the country had to resort to the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in order to comply. Climate change adaptation policies were introduced in 2010 but are far from being fully implemented. Regarding public engagement with climate change, high levels of concern contrast with limited understanding and rather weak behavioral dispositions to address climate change. Citizens display a heavy reliance on the media as sources of information, which are dominated by a techno-managerial discourse mainly focused on the global level. The final part of the article identifies research gaps and outlines a research agenda. Connections between policy and research are also discussed