6 resultados para Statistical modeling technique

em Universidade do Minho


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Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil.

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This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctionsâ area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.

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Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

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This study presents an experimental program to assess the tensile strain distribution along prestressed carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) reinforcement flexurally applied on the tensile surface of RC beams according to near surface mounted (NSM) technique. Moreover, the current study aims to propose an analytical formulation, with a design framework, for the prediction of distribution of CFRP tensile strain and bond shear stress and, additionally, the prestress transfer length. After demonstration the good predictive performance of the proposed analytical approach, parametric studies were carried out to analytically evaluate the influence of the main material properties, and CFRP and groove cross section on the distribution of the CFRP tensile strain and bond shear stress, and on the prestress transfer length. The proposed analytical approach can also predict the evolution of the prestress transfer length during the curing time of the adhesive by considering the variation of its elasticity modulus during this period.

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This paper addresses the potential of polypropylene (PP) as a candidate for fused deposition modeling (FDM)-based 3D printing technique. The entire filament production chain is evaluated, starting with the PP pellets, filament production by extrusion and test samples printing. This strategy enables a true comparison between parts printed with parts manufactured by compression molding, using the same grade of raw material. Printed samples were mechanically characterized and the influence of filament orientation, layer thickness, infill degree and material was assessed. Regarding the latter, two grades of PP were evaluated: a glass-fiber reinforced and a neat, non-reinforced, one. The results showed the potential of the FDM to compete with conventional techniques, especially for the production of small series of parts/components; also, it was showed that this technique allows the production of parts with adequate mechanical performance and, therefore, does not need to be restricted to the production of mockups and prototypes.