Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Educação para a sustentabilidade: O uso de Sistemas de Informação Geográfica Participativos como instrumento de participação de crianças e adolescentes na construção de sociedades mais sustentáveis

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação (Área de Conhecimento: Educação ambiental e para a Sustentabilidade)

Discurso mediático e sociedade: repensar a Análise Crítica do Discurso

A análise do discurso jornalístico e do seu enraizamento social tem conhecido avanços significativos nas últimas duas décadas, especialmente devido ao surgimento e desenvolvimento da Análise Crítica do Discurso. No entanto, há três aspectos importantes que merecem mais investigação: o plano temporal na análise do discurso, as estratégias discursivas dos atores sociais, e os efeitos extra e supra-textual do discurso mediatizado. Em primeiro lugar, a compreensão da biografia dos assuntos públicos exige uma análise longitudinal dos textos mediatizados e dos seus contextos sociais, mas a maioria das formas de análise do discurso jornalístico não tem em conta a sequência temporal dos textos e as suas implicações. Em segundo lugar, como a representação mediática das questões sociais é, em grande medida, função da construção discursiva de eventos, problemas e posições por diferentes atores sociais, as estratégias discursivas que eles empregam numa variedade de arenas e canais ‘antes’ e ‘depois’ dos textos jornalísticos precisam de ser examinados. Em terceiro lugar, o facto de que muitos dos modos de operação do discurso são extra- ou supra-textuais requer que se tenha em consideração vários processos sociais ‘fora’ do texto. Este trabalho tem como objetivo produzir um contributo teórico e metodológico para a integração destas questões em análise do discurso, propondo um quadro analítico que combina uma dimensão textual com uma contextual.

Media(ted) discourse and society: rethinking the framework of critical discourse analysis

The analysis of journalistic discourse and its social embeddedness has known significant advances in the last two decades, especially due to the emergence and development of Critical Discourse Analysis. However, three important aspects remain under-researched: the time plane in discourse analysis, the discursive strategies of social actors, and the extra- and supra-textual effects of mediated discourse. Firstly, understanding the biography of public matters requires a longitudinal examination of mediated texts and their social contexts but most forms of analysis of journalistic discourse do not account for the time sequence of texts and its implications. Secondly, as the media representation of social issues is, to a large extent, a function of the discursive construction of events, problems and positions by social actors, the discursive strategies that they employ in a variety of arenas and channels ‘‘before’’ and ‘‘after’’ journalistic texts need to be examined. Thirdly, the fact that many of the modes of operation of discourse are extra- or supra-textual calls for a consideration of various social processes ‘‘outside’’ the text. This paper aims to produce a theoretical and methodological contribution to the integration of these issues in discourse analysis by proposing a framework that combines a textual dimension with a contextual one

Processos de melhoria social: a requalificação do Bairro Social de Santa Tecla

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Arquitectura

The Portuguese programme one laptop per child: political, educational and social impact

In 2008, the XVII Portuguese Constitutional Government launched the ‘e.escolinha’ programme, within the Technological Plan for Education, which set out the distribution of a computer, called ‘Magalhães’, designed for chil-dren attending the 1st cycle of basic education. Suspended in 2011 by the XIX Government, this programme has allowed, however, almost 500 000 children to have access to a personal computer. It was expected that this political measure would “revolutionise” the national education system by bringing changes to the pedagogical practices of teachers and the learning processes of children and by achieving educational success, in general. Based on documental analysis and on a set of interviews with key decision-makers in conceiving, implementing and monitoring this governmental initiative, the fi rst part of this chapter presents and analyses the ‘e.escolinha’ initiative and the policies be-hind that governmental programme, seeking to disassemble those objectives and provide some insights into the relationship between discourses, rhetoric, and reality. After that, the chapter focuses on children’s uses and practices with the ‘Magalhães’ laptop, at school and at home. Based on the results of questionnaires fi lled in by approximately 1500 children from 32 First Cycle public schools of the municipality of Braga (north of Portugal) and also from questionnaires applied to their parents and teachers, this chapter intends to analyse the real impact of this initiative for children, family and school. It also seeks to discuss the contribution of this educational policy to children’s digital literacy and also to their own and their families’ social and digital inclusion. To understand if it represented an added value to teachers’ pedagogical practice is another of its aims. The fi ndings point out a major focus on technology and access rather than on uses and competences or even on social, educational and cultural change. In fact, a major conclusion is the existence of a strong gap between the policy and the practices, typical of a top-down policy design. This study is an integrant part of a research project titled “Navigating with ‘Magalhães’: Study on the Impact of Digital Media in Schoolchildren” conducted at the University of Minho, Portugal, financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology [PTDC/CCI-COM/101381/2008] and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund [COMPETE: FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-009056].