Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Aplicação da metodologia ROC na avaliação de desempenho de índices de gravidade clínica em unidades de neonatologia de Portugal

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas

Preoperative staging of rectal cancer with MRI: correlation with pathologic staging

[INTRODUCTION] An accurate preoperative rectal cancer staging is crucial to the correct management of the disease. Despite great controversy around this issue, pelvic magnetic resonance (RM) is said to be the imagiologic standard modality. This work aimed to evaluate magnetic resonance accuracy in preoperative rectal cancer staging comparing with the anatomopathological results. METHODS We calculated sensibility, specificity, positive (VP positive) and negative (VP negative) predictive values for each T and N. We evaluated the concordance between both methods of staging using the Cohen weighted K (Kw), and through ROC curves, we evaluated magnetic resonance accuracy in rectal cancer staging. RESULTS 41 patients met the inclusion criteria. We achieved an efficacy of 43.9% for T and 61% for N staging. The respective sensibility, specificity, positive and negative predictive values are 33.3%, 94.7%, 33.3% and 94.7% for T1; 62.5%, 32%, 37.0% and 57.1% for T2; 31.8%, 79%, 63.6% and 50% for T3 and 27.8%, 87%, 62.5% and 60.6% for N. We obtained a poor concordance for T and N staging and the anatomopathological results. The ROC curves indicated that magnetic resonance is ineffective in rectal cancer staging. CONCLUSION Magnetic resonance has a moderate efficacy in rectal cancer staging and the major difficulty is in differentiating T2 and T3.

Avaliação do desempenho de indicadores com base na metodologia ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic)

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioinformática