Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Systematics, functional morphology and distribution of a bivalve (Apachecorbula muriatica gen. et sp. nov.) from the rim of the ‘Valdivia Deep’ brine pool in the Red Sea

The deep brine pools of the Red Sea comprise extreme, inhospitable habitats yet house microbial communities that potentially may fuel adjacent fauna. We here describe a novel bivalve from a deep-sea (1525 m) brine pool in the Red Sea, where conditions of high salinity, lowered pH, partial anoxia and high temperatures are prevalent. Remotely operated vehicle (ROV) footage showed that the bivalves were present in a narrow (20 cm) band along the rim of the brine pool, suggesting that it is not only tolerant of such extreme conditions but is also limited to them. The bivalve is a member of the Corbulidae and named Apachecorbula muriatica gen. et sp. nov. The shell is atypical of the family in being modioliform and thin. The semi-infaunal habit is seen in ROV images and reflected in the anatomy by the lack of siphons. The ctenidia are large and typical of a suspension feeding bivalve, but the absence of guard cilia and the greatly reduced labial palps suggest that it is non-selective as a response to low food availability. It is proposed that the low body mass observed is a consequence of the extreme habitat and low food availability. It is postulated that the observed morphology of Apachecorbula is a result of paedomorphosis driven by the effects of the extreme environment on growth but is in part mitigated by the absence of high predation pressures.

Patterns of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-complex excretion and characterization of super-shedders in naturally-infected wild boar and red deer

Wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) are the main maintenance hosts for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in continental Europe. Understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) excretion routes is crucial to define strategies to control bTB in free-ranging populations, nevertheless available information is scarce. Aiming at filling this gap, four different MTC excretion routes (oronasal, bronchial-alveolar, fecal and urinary) were investigated by molecular methods in naturally infected hunter-harvested wild boar and red deer. In addition MTC concentrations were estimated by the Most Probable Number method. MTC DNA was amplified in all types of excretion routes. MTC DNA was amplified in at least one excretion route from 83.0% (CI95 70.8-90.8) of wild ungulates with bTB-like lesions. Oronasal or bronchial-alveolar shedding were detected with higher frequency than fecal shedding (p < 0.001). The majority of shedders yielded MTC concentrations <10(3) CFU/g or mL. However, from those ungulates from which oronasal, bronchial-alveolar and fecal samples were available, 28.2% of wild boar (CI95 16.6-43.8) and 35.7% of red deer (CI95 16.3-61.2) yielded MTC concentrations >10(3) CFU/g or mL (referred here as super-shedders). Red deer have a significantly higher risk of being super-shedders compared to wild boar (OR = 11.8, CI95 2.3-60.2). The existence of super-shedders among the naturally infected population of wild boar and red deer is thus reported here for the first time and MTC DNA concentrations greater than the minimum infective doses were estimated in excretion samples from both species.

On the length of bank-firm relationships: an empirical application to a major French bank

NIPE - WP 01/ 2016

Removal of ochratoxin A from contaminated white and red wines using oenological fining agents

Mycotoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by certain moulds, being ochratoxin A (OTA) one of the most relevant. Its chemical structure is a dihydro-isocoumarin connected at the 7-carboxy group to a molecule of L--phenylalanine via an amide bond. OTA contamination of wines might be a risk to consumer health, thus requiring treatments to achieve acceptable standards for human consumption [1]. According to the Regulation No. 1881/2006 of the European Commission, the maximum limit for OTA in wine is 2 µg/kg [2]. Therefore, the aim of this work was to know the effect of different fining agents on OTA removal, as well as their impact on white and red wine physicochemical characteristics. To evaluate their efficiency, 11 commercial fining agents (mineral, synthetic, animal and vegetable proteins) were used to get new approaches on OTA removal from white and red wines. Trials were performed in wines artificially supplemented (at a final concentration of 10 µg/L) with OTA. The most effective fining agent in removing OTA (80%) from white wine was a commercial formulation that contains gelatine, bentonite and activated carbon. Removals between 10-30% were obtained with potassium caseinate, yeast cell walls and pea protein. With bentonites, carboxymethylcellulose, polyvinylpolypyrrolidone and chitosan no considerable OTA removal was verified. In red wine, removals between 6-19% were obtained with egg albumin, yeast cell walls, pea protein, isinglass, gelatine, polyvinylpolypyrrolidone and chitosan. The most effective fining agents in removing OTA from red wine were an activated carbon (66%) followed again by the commercial formulation (55%), being activated carbon a well-known adsorbent of mycotoxins. These results may provide useful information for winemakers, namely for the selection of the most appropriate oenological product for OTA removal, reducing wine toxicity and simultaneously enhancing food safety and wine quality.

Comparative genomics reveals adaptations of a halotolerant thaumarchaeon in the interfaces of brine pools in the Red Sea

The bottom of the Red Sea harbors over 25 deep hypersaline anoxic basins that are geochemically distinct and characterized by vertical gradients of extreme physicochemical conditions. Because of strong changes in density, particulate and microbial debris get entrapped in the brine-seawater interface (BSI), resulting in increased dissolved organic carbon, reduced dissolved oxygen toward the brines and enhanced microbial activities in the BSI. These features coupled with the deep-sea prevalence of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) in the global ocean make the BSI a suitable environment for studying the osmotic adaptations and ecology of these important players in the marine nitrogen cycle. Using phylogenomic-based approaches, we show that the local archaeal community of five different BSI habitats (with up to 18.2% salinity) is composed mostly of a single, highly abundant Nitrosopumilus-like phylotype that is phylogenetically distinct from the bathypelagic thaumarchaea; ammonia-oxidizing bacteria were absent. The composite genome of this novel Nitrosopumilus-like subpopulation (RSA3) co-assembled from multiple single-cell amplified genomes (SAGs) from one such BSI habitat further revealed that it shares [sim]54% of its predicted genomic inventory with sequenced Nitrosopumilus species. RSA3 also carries several, albeit variable gene sets that further illuminate the phylogenetic diversity and metabolic plasticity of this genus. Specifically, it encodes for a putative proline-glutamate 'switch' with a potential role in osmotolerance and indirect impact on carbon and energy flows. Metagenomic fragment recruitment analyses against the composite RSA3 genome, Nitrosopumilus maritimus, and SAGs of mesopelagic thaumarchaea also reiterate the divergence of the BSI genotypes from other AOA.