Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

The influence of low-frequency noise pollution on the quality of life and place in sustainable cities: a case study from northern Portugal

Discussing urban planning requires rethinking sustainability in cities and building healthy environments. Historically, some aspects of advancing the urban way of life have not been considered important in city planning. This is particularly the case where technological advances have led to conflicting land use, as with the installation of power poles and building electrical substations near residential areas. This research aims to discuss and rethink sustainability in cities, focusing on the environmental impact of low-frequency noise and electromagnetic radiation on human health. It presents data from a case study in an urban space in northern Portugal, and focuses on four guiding questions: Can power poles and power lines cause noise? Do power poles and power lines cause discomfort? Do power poles and power lines cause discomfort due to noise? Can power poles and power lines affect human health? To answer these questions, we undertook research between 2014 and 2015 that was comprised of two approaches. The first approach consisted of evaluating the noise of nine points divided into two groups â near the sourceâ (e.g., up to 50 m from power poles) and â away from the sourceâ (e.g., more than 250 m away from the source). In the second approach, noise levels were measured for 72 h in houses located up to 20 m from the source. The groups consist of residents living within the distance range specified for each group. The measurement values were compared with the proposed criteria for assessing low-frequency noise using the DEFRA Guidance (University of Salford). In the first approach, the noise caused discomfort, regardless of the group. In the second approach, the noise had fluctuating characteristics, which led us to conclude that the noise caused discomfort.

Comparing standard and low-cost tools for gradient evaluation along potential cycling paths

Promoting the use of non-motorized modes of transport, such as cycling, is an important contribution to the improvement of mobility, accessibility and equity in cities. Cycling offers a fast and cheap transportation option for short distances, helping to lower pollutant emissions and contributing to a healthier way of life. In order to make the cycling mode more competitive in relation to motorized traffic, it is necessary to evaluate the potential of alternatives from the perspective of the physical effort. One way to do so consists of assessing the suitability of locations for implementing cycling infrastructures. In this work, four tools to determine the gradient along potential cycling paths are compared. Furthermore, an evaluation of the reliability of some low-cost tools to measure this parameter was conducted, by comparison with standard measurements using cartographic plans, on a field case study applied to the city of Braga, Portugal. These tools revealed a good level of accuracy for the planning stage, but proved to be less reliable for use in design.

Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson produced in association with top quarks and decaying into bb in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the Standard Model Higgs boson produced in association with a pair of top quarks, tt¯H, is presented. The analysis uses 20.3 fb−1 of pp collision data at s√ = 8 TeV, collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider during 2012. The search is designed for the H to bb¯ decay mode and uses events containing one or two electrons or muons. In order to improve the sensitivity of the search, events are categorised according to their jet and b-tagged jet multiplicities. A neural network is used to discriminate between signal and background events, the latter being dominated by tt¯+jets production. In the single-lepton channel, variables calculated using a matrix element method are included as inputs to the neural network to improve discrimination of the irreducible tt¯+bb¯ background. No significant excess of events above the background expectation is found and an observed (expected) limit of 3.4 (2.2) times the Standard Model cross section is obtained at 95% confidence level. The ratio of the measured tt¯H signal cross section to the Standard Model expectation is found to be μ=1.5±1.1 assuming a Higgs boson mass of 125 GeV.

Search for the bb¯ decay of the Standard Model Higgs boson in associated (W/Z)H production with the ATLAS detector

A search for the bb¯ decay of the Standard Model Higgs boson is performed with the ATLAS experiment using the full dataset recorded at the LHC in Run 1. The integrated luminosities used from pp collisions at s√=7 and 8 TeV are 4.7 and 20.3 fb−1, respectively. The processes considered are associated (W/Z)H production, where W→eν/μν, Z→ee/μμ and Z→νν. The observed (expected) deviation from the background-only hypothesis corresponds to a significance of 1.4 (2.6) standard deviations and the ratio of the measured signal yield to the Standard Model expectation is found to be μ=0.52±0.32(stat.)±0.24(syst.) for a Higgs boson mass of 125.36 GeV. The analysis procedure is validated by a measurement of the yield of (W/Z)Z production with Z→bb¯ in the same final states as for the Higgs boson search, from which the ratio of the observed signal yield to the Standard Model expectation is found to be 0.74±0.09(stat.)±0.14(syst.).

COST Action TU1406: eBook of the 1st Workshop Meeting

COST Action TU1406 aims to address the European economic and societal needs by standardizing the condition assessment and maintenance level of roadway bridges. Currently, bridge quality control plans vary from country to country and, in some cases, within the same country. This therefore urges the establishment of a European guideline to surpass the lack of a standard methodology to assess bridge condition and to define quality control plans for roadway bridges. Such a guideline will comprise specific recommendations for assessing performance indicators as well as for the definition of performance goals, bringing together different stakeholders (e.g. universities, institutes, operators, consultants and owners) from various scientific disciplines (e.g. on-site testing, visual inspection, structural engineering, sustainability, etc.) in order to establish a common transnational language. COST Action TU1406 Workshops aim to facilitate the exchange of ideas and experiences between active researchers and practitioners as well as to stimulate discussions on new and emerging issues in line with the conference topics. This first Workshop essentially focuses on WG1 issues, namely, intends to address performance indicators, how these are assessed (e.g. visual inspection, nondestructive tests and monitoring systems), with what frequency and what values are generally obtained. The main outcomes, given in this eBook, were really important, not only for WG1 developments, but also for all the other WGs and for the Action itself.

Low frequency of TERT promoter mutations in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs).

Somatic mutations in the promoter region of telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene, mainly at positions c. − 124 and c. − 146 bp, are frequent in several human cancers; yet its presence in gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) has not been reported to date. Herein, we searched for the presence and clinicopathological association of TERT promoter mutations in genomic DNA from 130 bona fide GISTs. We found TERT promoter mutations in 3.8% (5/130) of GISTs. The c. − 124C4T mutation was the most common event, present in 2.3% (3/130), and the c. − 146C4T mutation in 1.5% (2/130) of GISTs. No significant association was observed between TERT promoter mutation and patient’s clinicopathological features. The present study establishes the low frequency (4%) of TERT promoter mutations in GISTs. Further studies are required to confirm our findings and to elucidate the hypothetical biological and clinical impact of TERT promoter mutation in GIST pathogenesis.

Implementação de sistemas de encriptação AES advanced encryption standard em hardware para segurança

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Electrónica Industrial e Computadores