19 resultados para Railroad safety, Bayesian methods, Accident modification factor, Countermeasure selection
em Universidade do Minho
Resumo:
Measurements of inclusive jet production are performed in pp and Pb+Pb collisions at sNN−−−√=2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, corresponding to integrated luminosities of 4.0 pb−1 and 0.14 nb−1 , respectively. The jets are identified with the anti-kt algorithm with R=0.4, and the spectra are measured over the kinematic range of jet transverse momentum 32
Resumo:
In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.
Resumo:
The assessment of existing timber structures is often limited to information obtained from non or semi destructive testing, as mechanical testing is in many cases not possible due to its destructive nature. Therefore, the available data provides only an indirect measurement of the reference mechanical properties of timber elements, often obtained through empirical based correlations. Moreover, the data must result from the combination of different tests, as to provide a reliable source of information for a structural analysis. Even if general guidelines are available for each typology of testing, there is still a need for a global methodology allowing to combine information from different sources and infer upon that information in a decision process. In this scope, the present work presents the implementation of a probabilistic based framework for safety assessment of existing timber elements. This methodology combines information gathered in different scales and follows a probabilistic framework allowing for the structural assessment of existing timber elements with possibility of inference and updating of its mechanical properties, through Bayesian methods. The probabilistic based framework is based in four main steps: (i) scale of information; (ii) measurement data; (iii) probability assignment; and (iv) structural analysis. In this work, the proposed methodology is implemented in a case study. Data was obtained through a multi-scale experimental campaign made to old chestnut timber beams accounting correlations of non and semi-destructive tests with mechanical properties. Finally, different inference scenarios are discussed aiming at the characterization of the safety level of the elements.
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Polymer binder modification with inorganic nanomaterials (NM) could be a potential and efficient solution to control matrix flammability of polymer concrete (PC) materials without sacrificing other important properties. Occupational exposures can occur all along the life cycle of a NM and “nanoproducts” from research through scale-up, product development, manufacturing, and end of life. The main objective of the present study is to analyse and compare different qualitative risk assessment methods during the production of polymer mortars (PM) with NM. The laboratory scale production process was divided in 3 main phases (pre-production, production and post-production), which allow testing the assessment methods in different situations. The risk assessment involved in the manufacturing process of PM was made by using the qualitative analyses based on: French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety method (ANSES); Control Banding Nanotool (CB Nanotool); Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne method (EPFL); Guidance working safely with nanomaterials and nanoproducts (GWSNN); Istituto Superiore per la Prevenzione e la Sicurezza del Lavoro, Italy method (ISPESL); Precautionary Matrix for Synthetic Nanomaterials (PMSN); and Stoffenmanager Nano. It was verified that the different methods applied also produce different final results. In phases 1 and 3 the risk assessment tends to be classified as medium-high risk, while for phase 2 the more common result is medium level. It is necessary to improve the use of qualitative methods by defining narrow criteria for the methods selection for each assessed situation, bearing in mind that the uncertainties are also a relevant factor when dealing with the risk related to nanotechnologies field.
Resumo:
To solve a health and safety problem on a waste treatment facility, different multicriteria decision methods were used, including the PROV Exponential decision method. Four alternatives and ten attributes were considered. We found a congruent solution, validated by the different methods. The AHP and the PROV Exponential decision method led us to the same options ordering, but the last method reinforced one of the options as being the best performing one, and detached the least performing option. Also, the ELECTRE I method results led to the same ordering which allowed to point the best solution with reasonable confidence. This paper demonstrates the potential of using multicriteria decision methods to support decision making on complex problems such as risk control and accidents prevention.
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This paper presents a methodology based on the Bayesian data fusion techniques applied to non-destructive and destructive tests for the structural assessment of historical constructions. The aim of the methodology is to reduce the uncertainties of the parameter estimation. The Young's modulus of granite stones was chosen as an example for the present paper. The methodology considers several levels of uncertainty since the parameters of interest are considered random variables with random moments. A new concept of Trust Factor was introduced to affect the uncertainty related to each test results, translated by their standard deviation, depending on the higher or lower reliability of each test to predict a certain parameter.
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BACKGROUND: Furniture companies can analyze their safety status using quantitative measures. However, the data needed are not always available and the number of accidents is under-reported. Safety climate scales may be an alternative. However, there are no validated Portuguese scales that account for the specific attributes of the furniture sector. OBJECTIVE: The current study aims to develop and validate an instrument that uses a multilevel structure to measure the safety climate of the Portuguese furniture industry. METHODS: The Safety Climate in Wood Industries (SCWI) model was developed and applied to the safety climate analysis using three different scales: organizational, group and individual. A multilevel exploratory factor analysis was performed to analyze the factorial structure. The studied companies’ safety conditions were also analyzed. RESULTS: Different factorial structures were found between and within levels. In general, the results show the presence of a group-level safety climate. The scores of safety climates are directly and positively related to companies’ safety conditions; the organizational scale is the one that best reflects the actual safety conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The SCWI instrument allows for the identification of different safety climates in groups that comprise the same furniture company and it seems to reflect those groups’ safety conditions. The study also demonstrates the need for a multilevel analysis of the studied instrument.
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Nowadays, road accidents are a major public health problem, which increase is forecasted if road safety is not treated properly, dying about 1.2 million people every year around the globe. In 2012, Portugal recorded 573 fatalities in road accidents, on site, revealing the largest decreasing of the European Union for 2011, along with Denmark. Beyond the impact caused by fatalities, it was calculated that the economic and social costs of road accidents weighted about 1.17% of the Portuguese gross domestic product in 2010. Visual Analytics allows the combination of data analysis techniques with interactive visualizations, which facilitates the process of knowledge discovery in sets of large and complex data, while the Geovisual Analytics facilitates the exploration of space-time data through maps with different variables and parameters that are under analysis. In Portugal, the identification of road accident accumulation zones, in this work named black spots, has been restricted to annual fixed windows. In this work, it is presented a dynamic approach based on Visual Analytics techniques that is able to identify the displacement of black spots on sliding windows of 12 months. Moreover, with the use of different parameterizations in the formula usually used to detect black spots, it is possible to identify zones that are almost becoming black spots. Through the proposed visualizations, the study and identification of countermeasures to this social and economic problem can gain new grounds and thus the decision- making process is supported and improved.
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This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctionsâ area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.
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Given the current economic situation of the Portuguese municipalities, it is necessary to identify the priority investments in order to achieve a more efficient financial management. The classification of the road network of the municipality according to the occurrence of traffic accidents is fundamental to set priorities for road interventions. This paper presents a model for road network classification based on traffic accidents integrated in a geographic information system. Its practical application was developed through a case study in the municipality of Barcelos. An equation was defined to obtain a road safety index through the combination of the following indicators: severity, property damage only and accident costs. In addition to the road network classification, the application of the model allows to analyze the spatial coverage of accidents in order to determine the centrality and dispersion of the locations with the highest incidence of road accidents. This analysis can be further refined according to the nature of the accidents namely in collision, runoff and pedestrian crashes.
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BACKGROUND: Machinery safety issues are a challenge facing manufacturers who are supposed to create and provide products in a better and faster way. In spite of their construction and technological advance, they still contribute to many potential hazards for operators and those nearby. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to investigate safety aspects of metal machinery offered for sale on Internet market according to compliance with minimum and fundamental requirements. METHODS: The study was carried out with the application of a checklist prepared on the basis of Directive 2006/42/EC and Directive 2009/104/EC and regulations enforcing them into Polish law. RESULTS: On the basis of the study it was possible to reveal the safety aspects that were not met in practice. It appeared that in the case of minimum requirements the most relevant problems concerned information, signal and control elements, technology and machinery operations, whereas as far as fundamental aspects are concerned it was hard to assure safe work process. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of the fact that more and more legal acts binding in the Member Countries of the European Union are being introduced to alleviate the phenomenon, these regulations are often not fulfilled.
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BACKGROUND: When an organization performs an integrated analysis of risks through its Occupational Health and Safety Management System, several steps are suggested to address the implications of the identified risks. Namely, the organization should make a detailed analysis of the monetary impact for the organization of each of the preventive measures considered. However, it is also important to perform an analysis of the impact of each measure on society (externalities). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to present a case study related to the application of the proposed economic evaluation methodology. METHODS: An analysis of the work accidents in a hospital has been made. Three of the major types of accidents have been selected: needle stings, falls and excessive strain. Following the risk assessment, some preventive measures have been designed. Subsequently, the Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C) of these measures has been calculated, both in financial terms (from the organization’s perspective) and in economic terms (including the benefits for the worker and for the Society). RESULTS: While the financial ratio is only advantageous in some cases, when the externalities are taken into account, the B/C ratio increases significantly. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to consider external
Resumo:
Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) became one of the biggest health problems in the workplace and one of the main concerns of ergonomics and despite all the technical improvements manual handling is still an important risk factor for WMSD. The current study was performed with the main objective of conducting an ergonomic analysis in a workplace that consists in packaging products in a pallet, in a food distribution industry, also called picking. In this perspective, the aim of the study is to identify if the tasks performed by operators present any risk of WMSD and, if so, to suggest proposals for minimizing the associated effort. The methodologies of ergonomic risk assessment that were initially applied were the Risk Reckoner and the Manual Handling Assessment Chart (MAC). Subsequently, in order to, on the one hand, complement the analysis performed using the two methods previously mentioned, and, on the other hand, allow an assessment of two important risk factors associated with this activity (work postures and loads handling), two additional methodologies were also selected: the Revised NIOSH Lifting Equation and the Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). In all the performed approaches, the tasks of palletizing at lower levels were identified as the ones that most penalize workers in what regards the risk of development of WMSD. All methodologies identified levels of risk that require an immediate or short-term ergonomic intervention, aiming at ensuring the safety and health of workers performing such activity. The implementation of measures designed to eliminate or minimize the risk may involve the allocation of significant human and material resources that is increasingly necessary to manage efficiently. Taking into account the complexity and variability of the developed tasks, it is recommended that such a decision can be preceded by a new study using more accurate risk assessment methodologies, such as those that use monitoring tools.
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This paper analyzes the safety, environmental and occupational health of workers in the small construction industry in Brazil. In this sector there are still many unsafe practices, which are very common in small work sites. We used a qualitative approach to understand these problems by long interviews with people who work directly in small construction sites, including occupational physicians, civil engineers, safety engineers, safety technicians, general foremen, construction workers, labor unionists and auditors. This paper aims to demonstrate that the "invisibility" of the small sites workers makes them less safe and therefore more prone to accidents, also weakening their health. The results show that small constructions workers are less visible to society and supervision because of their short periods of work. Therefore, they are also uncovered to the rigorous applicability of principles of safety and accident prevention. Thus, it has been seen in this field of work a precarious application of NR - 18, which was specifically made for the construction sites and it needs simplification to meet normative characteristics of small construction sites. In the State of Rio de Janeiro, some laws on small sites were recently created and implemented. This study concludes that the rules to work are not being taken as seriously as the legislation determinates, remaining practically unknown by many professionals, from the plot command, supervisors, engineers, architects and technicians who work on construction sites. This ignorance creates space for the lack of safety and consequently to accidents, leading to by weakness in the workers health. Therefore, the work process needs to be modified, the safety regulation must be disseminated through safer practices, promoting employee health and ensure that the work of small sites can be visible, especially ensuring the construction workers health and safety.
Resumo:
PhD Thesis in Bioengineering