Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Abstract computation in schizophrenia detection through artificial neural network based systems

Schizophrenia stands for a long-lasting state of mental uncertainty that may bring to an end the relation among behavior, thought, and emotion; that is, it may lead to unreliable perception, not suitable actions and feelings, and a sense of mental fragmentation. Indeed, its diagnosis is done over a large period of time; continuos signs of the disturbance persist for at least 6 (six) months. Once detected, the psychiatrist diagnosis is made through the clinical interview and a series of psychic tests, addressed mainly to avoid the diagnosis of other mental states or diseases. Undeniably, the main problem with identifying schizophrenia is the difficulty to distinguish its symptoms from those associated to different untidiness or roles. Therefore, this work will focus on the development of a diagnostic support system, in terms of its knowledge representation and reasoning procedures, based on a blended of Logic Programming and Artificial Neural Networks approaches to computing, taking advantage of a novel approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, which aims to solve the problems associated in the handling (i.e., to stand for and reason) of defective information.

Determination of the top-quark pole mass using t(t)over-bar+1-jet events collected with the ATLAS experiment in 7 TeV pp collisions

The normalized differential cross section for top-quark pair production in association with at least one jet is studied as a function of the inverse of the invariant mass of the tt¯+1-jet system. This distribution can be used for a precise determination of the top-quark mass since gluon radiation depends on the mass of the quarks. The experimental analysis is based on proton--proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. The selected events were identified using the lepton+jets top-quark-pair decay channel, where lepton refers to either an electron or a muon. The observed distribution is compared to a theoretical prediction at next-to-leading-order accuracy in quantum chromodynamics using the pole-mass scheme. With this method, the measured value of the top-quark pole mass, mpolet, is: mpolet =173.7 ± 1.5 (stat.) ± 1.4 (syst.) +1.0−0.5 (theory) GeV. This result represents the most precise measurement of the top-quark pole mass to date.

Measurement of the t(t)over-barW and t(t)over-barZ production cross sections in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The production cross sections of top-quark pairs in association with massive vector bosons have been measured using data from pp collisions at s√=8 TeV. The dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector in 2012 at the LHC. Final states with two, three or four leptons are considered. A fit to the data considering the tt¯W and tt¯Z processes simultaneously yields a significance of 5.0σ (4.2σ) over the background-only hypothesis for tt¯W (tt¯Z) production. The measured cross sections are σtt¯W=369+100−91 fb and σtt¯Z=176+58−52 fb. The background-only hypothesis with neither tt¯W nor tt¯Z production is excluded at 7.1σ. All measurements are consistent with next-to-leading-order calculations for the tt¯W and tt¯Z processes.

A search for t(t)over-bar resonances using lepton-plus-jets events in proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for new particles that decay into top quark pairs is reported. The search is performed with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC using an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV. The lepton-plus-jets final state is used, where the top pair decays to W+bW−b¯¯, with one W boson decaying leptonically and the other hadronically. The invariant mass spectrum of top quark pairs is examined for local excesses or deficits that are inconsistent with the Standard Model predictions. No evidence for a top quark pair resonance is found, and 95% confidence-level limits on the production rate are determined for massive states in benchmark models. The upper limits on the cross-section times branching ratio of a narrow Z′ boson decaying to top pairs range from 4.2 pb to 0.03 pb for resonance masses from 0.4 TeV to 3.0 TeV. A narrow leptophobic topcolour Z′ boson with mass below 1.8 TeV is excluded. Upper limits are set on the cross-section times branching ratio for a broad colour-octet resonance with Γ/m = 15% decaying to tt¯. These range from 4.8 pb to 0.03 pb for masses from 0.4 TeV to 3.0 TeV. A Kaluza-Klein excitation of the gluon in a Randall-Sundrum model is excluded for masses below 2.2 TeV.

Measurement of colour flow with the jet pull angle in t(t)over-bar events using the ATLAS detector at root s=8 TeV

The distribution and orientation of energy inside jets is predicted to be an experimental handle on colour connections between the hard--scatter quarks and gluons initiating the jets. This Letter presents a measurement of the distribution of one such variable, the jet pull angle. The pull angle is measured for jets produced in tt¯ events with one W boson decaying leptonically and the other decaying to jets using 20.3 fb−1 of data recorded with the ATLAS detector at a centre--of--mass energy of s√=8 TeV at the LHC. The jet pull angle distribution is corrected for detector resolution and acceptance effects and is compared to various models.

All over the place localization system

The MAP-i Doctoral Programme in Informatics, of the Universities of Minho, Aveiro and Porto

Why should we expect worlds to collide? - Exploratory reflections departing from a case study analysis of “Jornal de Notícias” (Portugal)

As 2008 came to a close the avalanche of discourse on the demise of newspapers (and traditional media in general) grew to such an extent that consideration of any alternative scenario became almost difficult to utter. Academic articles, conferences, newspaper and magazine features were abundantly produced on thematic variations which went from ‘The End of Newspapers’ to ‘The End of Journalism’ (testing these expressions in a popular search engine we can easily get in excess of 23 thousand references for the first one and over 290 thousand references for the second one and there is even a dedicated ‘Newspaper Death Watch’ site with constant updates). The broad assumption of this production – particularly the one that identifies one possibility with the other – revolves around notions like the collapse of rigid business models, the breakdown of producer/user fidelity/trust, and the failings of a self-centred and entrenched professional (the journalist). The present seems to be enunciated as a ‘the end of days’ period, with images of irrevocable perdition funnelling our reasoning towards one single possible outcome – the imperious necessity of complete reinvention, not necessarily with the same agents.

Psychosocial adjustment and physical health in children of divorce

Objective: To review the literature on the effects of parental divorce over the psychological maladjustment and physical health problems in children of divorced parents, thus contributing to the integration of existing scientific knowledge based on the biopsychosocial model of the impact of divorce on children’s physical health as proposed by Troxel and Matthews (2004). Sources: Review of the literature using MEDLINE and PsycInfo (1980-2007) databases, selecting the most representative articles on the subject. Special attention was paid to contributions by internationally renowned investigators on the subject. Summary of the findings: Divorce may be responsible for a decline of physical and psychological health in children. The developmental maladjustment of children is not triggered by divorce itself, but rather by other risk factors associated with it, such as interparental conflict, parental psychopathology, decline in socio-economic level, inconsistency in parenting styles, a parallel and conflicting co-parenting relationship between parents and low levels of social support. Such risk factors trigger maladjusted developmental pathways, marked by psychopathological symptoms, poor academic performance, worst levels of physical health, risk behavior, exacerbated psychophysiological responses to stress and weakening of the immune system. Conclusions: Clear links were observed between experiencing parental divorce and facing problems of physical and psychological maladjustment in children. Divorce is a stressor that should be considered by health professionals as potentially responsible for maladjusted neuropsychobiological responses and for decline in children’s physical health.