Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

The role of temporary accommodation buildings for post-disaster housing reconstruction

The number of houses damaged or destroyed after disasters is frequently large, and re-housing of homeless people is one of the most important tasks of reconstruction programmes. Reconstruction works often last long and during that time, it is essential to provide victims with the minimum conditions to live with dignity, privacy, and protection. This research intends to demonstrate the crucial role of temporary accommodation buildings to provide spaces where people can live and gradually resume their life until they have a permanent house. The study also aims to identify the main problems of temporary accommodation strategies and to discuss some principles and guidelines in order to reach better design solutions. It is found that temporary accommodation is an issue that goes beyond the simple provision of buildings, since the whole space for temporary settlement is important. Likewise, temporary accommodation is a process that should start before a disaster occurs, as a preventive pre-planning. In spite of being temporary constructions, these housing buildings are one of the most important elements to provide in emergency scenarios, contributing for better recovery and reconstruction actions.

O preço da água nos municípios portugueses: quais as razões para as suas disparidades?

Dissertação de mestrado em Economia Monetária, Bancária e Financeira

Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: evidence from emerging markets

We test the predictive ability of the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labour income, cay, for both future equity and housing risk premia in emerging market economies. Using quarterly data for 31 markets, our country-level evidence shows that forecasting power of cay vis-à-vis stock returns is high for Brazil, China, Colombia, Israel, Korea, Latvia and Malaysia. As for housing returns, the empirical evidence suggests that financial and housing assets are perceived as complements in the case of Chile, Russia, South Africa and Thailand, and as substitutes in Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Taiwan. Using a panel econometric framework, we find that the cross-country heterogeneity observed in asset return predictability does not accrue to regional location, but can be attributed to differences in the degree of equity market development and in the level of income.

Psychosocial adjustment and physical health in children of divorce

Objective: To review the literature on the effects of parental divorce over the psychological maladjustment and physical health problems in children of divorced parents, thus contributing to the integration of existing scientific knowledge based on the biopsychosocial model of the impact of divorce on children’s physical health as proposed by Troxel and Matthews (2004). Sources: Review of the literature using MEDLINE and PsycInfo (1980-2007) databases, selecting the most representative articles on the subject. Special attention was paid to contributions by internationally renowned investigators on the subject. Summary of the findings: Divorce may be responsible for a decline of physical and psychological health in children. The developmental maladjustment of children is not triggered by divorce itself, but rather by other risk factors associated with it, such as interparental conflict, parental psychopathology, decline in socio-economic level, inconsistency in parenting styles, a parallel and conflicting co-parenting relationship between parents and low levels of social support. Such risk factors trigger maladjusted developmental pathways, marked by psychopathological symptoms, poor academic performance, worst levels of physical health, risk behavior, exacerbated psychophysiological responses to stress and weakening of the immune system. Conclusions: Clear links were observed between experiencing parental divorce and facing problems of physical and psychological maladjustment in children. Divorce is a stressor that should be considered by health professionals as potentially responsible for maladjusted neuropsychobiological responses and for decline in children’s physical health.

Contribution to an efficient transmission of information to the textile fashion consumer and the influence in sustainable attitudes

The concepts involved in sustainable textile fashion, demanding good knowledge about raw materials, processes, end use properties and circuits amongst others, are able to determine the way the textile product is designed and the behavior of the consumer, regarding life style and buying decisions. The textile product`s life integrates raw materials, their processing, distribution, use by the consumer and destination of the product after useful lifetime, this is, his complete life cycle. It is very important to recognize the power of the consumer to influence parameters related to sustainability, namely when he decides how, when and why he buys and afterwards by the attitudes taken during and after use. The conscious act of consumption involves ethical, ecological and technical knowledge in which the concern is overall lifecycle of the fashion product and not exclusively aesthetic and symbolic values strongly related with its ephemeral nature. The present work proposes the classification of textile products by means of an innovative label aiming to establish a rating related to the Life of Fashion Products, by using parameters considered with especial impact in lifecycle, as textile fibers, processing conditions, generated wastes, commercialization circuits, durability and cleaning procedures. This label for sustainable fashion products aims to assist the stakeholders with informed attitudes and correct decisions in order to promote the objectives of sustainable fashion near designers, consumers and industrial experts.