On the Hill estimator: a comparison of methods

Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with the occurrence of extreme phenomena. The tail index is a very important parameter appearing in the estimation of the probability of rare events. Under a semiparametric framework, inference requires the choice of a number k of upper order statistics to be considered. This is the crux of the matter and there is no definite formula to do it, since a small k leads to high variance and large values of k tend to increase the bias. Several methodologies have emerged in literature, specially concerning the most popular Hill estimator (Hill, 1975). In this work we compare through simulation well-known procedures presented in Drees and Kaufmann (1998), Matthys and Beirlant (2000), Beirlant et al. (2002) and de Sousa and Michailidis (2004), with a heuristic scheme considered in Frahm et al. (2005) within the estimation of a different tail measure but with a similar context. We will see that the new method may be an interesting alternative.

Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data on breast cancer

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências (Especialidade em Matemática)

Systems biology approaches for the design of novel Saccharomyces cerevisiae winemaking strains for enhanced flavour compounds synthesis

Tese de Doutoramento em Biologia Ambiental e Molecular

High-level of viral genomic diversity in cervical cancers: a Brazilian study on human papillomavirus type 16

Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is the third most frequent cancer among women worldwide and is associated with persistent infection by carcinogenic human papillomaviruses (HPVs). The combination of large populations of viral progeny and decades of sustained infection may allow for the generation of intra-patient diversity, in spite of the assumedly low mutation rates of PVs. While the natural history of chronic HPVs infections has been comprehensively described, within-host viral diversity remains largely unexplored. In this study we have applied next generation sequencing to the analysis of intra-host genetic diversity in ten ICC and one condyloma cases associated to single HPV16 infection. We retrieved from all cases near full-length genomic sequences. All samples analyzed contained polymorphic sites, ranging from 3 to 125 polymorphic positions per genome, and the median probability of a viral genome picked at random to be identical to the consensus sequence in the lesion was only 40%. We have also identified two independent putative duplication events in two samples, spanning the L2 and the L1 gene, respectively. Finally, we have identified with good support a chimera of human and viral DNA. We propose that viral diversity generated during HPVs chronic infection may be fueled by innate and adaptive immune pressures. Further research will be needed to understand the dynamics of viral DNA variability, differentially in benign and malignant lesions, as well as in tissues with differential intensity of immune surveillance. Finally, the impact of intralesion viral diversity on the long-term oncogenic potential may deserve closer attention.

Hazard assessment of storm events for the battery, New York

The environmental and socio-economic importance of coastal areas is widely recognized, but at present these areas face severe weaknesses and high-risk situations. The increased demand and growing human occupation of coastal zones have greatly contributed to exacerbating such weaknesses. Today, throughout the world, in all countries with coastal regions, episodes of waves overtopping and coastal flooding are frequent. These episodes are usually responsible for property losses and often put human lives at risk. The floods are caused by coastal storms primarily due to the action of very strong winds. The propagation of these storms towards the coast induces high water levels. It is expected that climate change phenomena will contribute to the intensification of coastal storms. In this context, an estimation of coastal flooding hazards is of paramount importance for the planning and management of coastal zones. Consequently, carrying out a series of storm scenarios and analyzing their impacts through numerical modeling is of prime interest to coastal decision-makers. Firstly, throughout this work, historical storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the northeastern region of United States coast, in terms of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with high potential of occurrence are generated using a specific tool of DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate ensemble simulations to assess storms' effects on coastal water levels. For the United States’ northeastern coast, a highly refined regional domain is considered surrounding the area of The Battery, New York, situated in New York Harbor. Based on statistical data of numerical modeling results, a review of the impact of coastal storms to different locations within the study area is performed.