Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

A spectrum-driven damage Identification technique : application and validation through the numerical simulation of the Z24 Bridge

The present paper focuses on a damage identification method based on the use of the second order spectral properties of the nodal response processes. The explicit dependence on the frequency content of the outputs power spectral densities makes them suitable for damage detection and localization. The well-known case study of the Z24 Bridge in Switzerland is chosen to apply and further investigate this technique with the aim of validating its reliability. Numerical simulations of the dynamic response of the structure subjected to different types of excitation are carried out to assess the variability of the spectrum-driven method with respect to both type and position of the excitation sources. The simulated data obtained from random vibrations, impulse, ramp and shaking forces, allowed to build the power spectrum matrix from which the main eigenparameters of reference and damage scenarios are extracted. Afterwards, complex eigenvectors and real eigenvalues are properly weighed and combined and a damage index based on the difference between spectral modes is computed to pinpoint the damage. Finally, a group of vibration-based damage identification methods are selected from the literature to compare the results obtained and to evaluate the performance of the spectral index.

Age effects on EEG correlates of the Wisconsin card sorting test

Body and brain undergo several changes with aging. One of the domains in which these changes are more remarkable relates with cognitive performance. In the present work, electroencephalogram (EEG) markers (power spectral density and spectral coherence) of age-related cognitive decline were sought whilst the subjects performed the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST). Considering the expected age-related cognitive deficits, WCST was applied to young, mid-age and elderly participants, and the theta and alpha frequency bands were analyzed. From the results herein presented, higher theta and alpha power were found to be associated with a good performance in the WCST of younger subjects. Additionally, higher theta and alpha coherence were also associated with good performance and were shown to decline with age and a decrease in alpha peak frequency seems to be associated with aging. Additionally, inter-hemispheric long-range coherences and parietal theta power were identified as age-independent EEG correlates of cognitive performance. In summary, these data reveals age-dependent as well as age-independent EEG correlates of cognitive performance that contribute to the understanding of brain aging and related cognitive deficits.

Sex differences in the fetal heart rate variability indices of twins

Aims: To evaluate the differences in linear and complex heart rate dynamics in twin pairs according to fetal sex combination [male-female (MF), male-male (MM), and female-female (FF)]. Methods: Fourteen twin pairs (6 MF, 3 MM, and 5 FF) were monitored between 31 and 36.4 weeks of gestation. Twenty-six fetal heart rate (FHR) recordings of both twins were simultaneously acquired and analyzed with a system for computerized analysis of cardiotocograms. Linear and nonlinear FHR indices were calculated. Results: Overall, MM twins presented higher intrapair average in linear indices than the other pairs, whereas FF twins showed higher sympathetic-vagal balance. MF twins exhibited higher intrapair average in entropy indices and MM twins presented lower entropy values than FF twins considering the (automatically selected) threshold rLu. MM twin pairs showed higher intrapair differences in linear heart rate indices than MF and FF twins, whereas FF twins exhibited lower intrapair differences in entropy indices. Conclusions: The results of this exploratory study suggest that twins have sex-specific differences in linear and nonlinear indices of FHR. MM twins expressed signs of a more active autonomic nervous system and MF twins showed the most active complexity control system. These results suggest that fetal sex combination should be taken into consideration when performing detailed evaluation of the FHR in twins.

An R package for the integrated analysis of metabolomics and spectral data

Recently, there has been a growing interest in the field of metabolomics, materialized by a remarkable growth in experimental techniques, available data and related biological applications. Indeed, techniques as Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, Gas or Liquid Chromatography, Mass Spectrometry, Infrared and UV-visible spectroscopies have provided extensive datasets that can help in tasks as biological and biomedical discovery, biotechnology and drug development. However, as it happens with other omics data, the analysis of metabolomics datasets provides multiple challenges, both in terms of methodologies and in the development of appropriate computational tools. Indeed, from the available software tools, none addresses the multiplicity of existing techniques and data analysis tasks. In this work, we make available a novel R package, named specmine, which provides a set of methods for metabolomics data analysis, including data loading in different formats, pre-processing, metabolite identification, univariate and multivariate data analysis, machine learning, and feature selection. Importantly, the implemented methods provide adequate support for the analysis of data from diverse experimental techniques, integrating a large set of functions from several R packages in a powerful, yet simple to use environment. The package, already available in CRAN, is accompanied by a web site where users can deposit datasets, scripts and analysis reports to be shared with the community, promoting the efficient sharing of metabolomics data analysis pipelines.