Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Automatic generation of ETL physical systems from BPMN conceptual models

ETL conceptual modeling is a very important activity in any data warehousing system project implementation. Owning a high-level system representation allowing for a clear identification of the main parts of a data warehousing system is clearly a great advantage, especially in early stages of design and development. However, the effort to model conceptually an ETL system rarely is properly rewarded. Translating ETL conceptual models directly into something that saves work and time on the concrete implementation of the system process it would be, in fact, a great help. In this paper we present and discuss a hybrid approach to this problem, combining the simplicity of interpretation and power of expression of BPMN on ETL systems conceptualization with the use of ETL patterns to produce automatically an ETL skeleton, a first prototype system, which has the ability to be executed in a commercial ETL tool like Kettle.

Importance of contact lens power and thickness in oxygen transmissibility

PURPOSE: The aim of this work was to study the central and peripheral thickness of several contact lenses (CL) with different powers and analyze how thickness variation affects CL oxygen transmissibility. METHODS: Four daily disposable and five monthly or biweekly CL were studied. The powers of each CL were: the maximum negative power of each brand; -6.00 D; -3.00 D; zero power (-0.25 D or -0.50 D), +3.00 D and +6.00 D. Central and peripheral thicknesses were measured with an electronic thickness gauge. Each lens was measured five times (central and 3mm paracentral) and the mean value was considered. Using the values of oxygen permeability given by the manufacturers and the measured thicknesses, the variation of oxygen transmissibility with lens power was determined. RESULTS: For monthly or biweekly lenses, central thickness changed between 0.061 ± 0.002 mm and 0.243 ± 0.002 mm, and peripheral thickness varied between 0.084 ± 0.002 mm and 0.231 ± 0.015 mm. Daily disposable lenses showed central values ranging between 0.056 ± 0.0016 mm and 0.205 ± 0.002 mm and peripheral values between 0.108 ± 0.05 and 0.232 ± 0.011 mm. Oxygen transmissibility (in units) of monthly or biweekly CL ranged between 39.4 ± 0.3 and 246.0 ± 14.4 and for daily disposable lenses the values range between 9.5 ± 0.5 and 178.1 ± 5.1. CONCLUSIONS: The central and peripheral thicknesses change significantly when considering the CL power and this has a significant impact on the oxygen transmissibility. Eyecare practitioners must have this fact in account when high power plus or minus lenses are fitted or when continuous wear is considered.

BIOMedical search engine framework: lightweight and customized implementation of domain-specific biomedical search engines

The Smart Drug Search is publicly accessible at http://sing.ei.uvigo.es/sds/. The BIOMedical Search Engine Framework is freely available for non-commercial use at https://github.com/agjacome/biomsef