Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

External and internal dynamics in the EU's counter-terrorism policy: a political and legal analysis

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais

The Portuguese programme one laptop per child: political, educational and social impact

In 2008, the XVII Portuguese Constitutional Government launched the ‘e.escolinha’ programme, within the Technological Plan for Education, which set out the distribution of a computer, called ‘Magalhães’, designed for chil-dren attending the 1st cycle of basic education. Suspended in 2011 by the XIX Government, this programme has allowed, however, almost 500 000 children to have access to a personal computer. It was expected that this political measure would “revolutionise” the national education system by bringing changes to the pedagogical practices of teachers and the learning processes of children and by achieving educational success, in general. Based on documental analysis and on a set of interviews with key decision-makers in conceiving, implementing and monitoring this governmental initiative, the fi rst part of this chapter presents and analyses the ‘e.escolinha’ initiative and the policies be-hind that governmental programme, seeking to disassemble those objectives and provide some insights into the relationship between discourses, rhetoric, and reality. After that, the chapter focuses on children’s uses and practices with the ‘Magalhães’ laptop, at school and at home. Based on the results of questionnaires fi lled in by approximately 1500 children from 32 First Cycle public schools of the municipality of Braga (north of Portugal) and also from questionnaires applied to their parents and teachers, this chapter intends to analyse the real impact of this initiative for children, family and school. It also seeks to discuss the contribution of this educational policy to children’s digital literacy and also to their own and their families’ social and digital inclusion. To understand if it represented an added value to teachers’ pedagogical practice is another of its aims. The fi ndings point out a major focus on technology and access rather than on uses and competences or even on social, educational and cultural change. In fact, a major conclusion is the existence of a strong gap between the policy and the practices, typical of a top-down policy design. This study is an integrant part of a research project titled “Navigating with ‘Magalhães’: Study on the Impact of Digital Media in Schoolchildren” conducted at the University of Minho, Portugal, financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology [PTDC/CCI-COM/101381/2008] and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund [COMPETE: FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-009056].