Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

[An editorial to] Recent Advances on Knowledge Discovery and Business Intelligence

Special issue guest editorial, June, 2015.

Business intelligence in banking: A literature analysis from 2002 to 2013 using Text Mining and latent Dirichlet allocation

telligence applications for the banking industry. Searches were performed in relevant journals resulting in 219 articles published between 2002 and 2013. To analyze such a large number of manuscripts, text mining techniques were used in pursuit for relevant terms on both business intelligence and banking domains. Moreover, the latent Dirichlet allocation modeling was used in or- der to group articles in several relevant topics. The analysis was conducted using a dictionary of terms belonging to both banking and business intelli- gence domains. Such procedure allowed for the identification of relationships between terms and topics grouping articles, enabling to emerge hypotheses regarding research directions. To confirm such hypotheses, relevant articles were collected and scrutinized, allowing to validate the text mining proce- dure. The results show that credit in banking is clearly the main application trend, particularly predicting risk and thus supporting credit approval or de- nial. There is also a relevant interest in bankruptcy and fraud prediction. Customer retention seems to be associated, although weakly, with targeting, justifying bank offers to reduce churn. In addition, a large number of ar- ticles focused more on business intelligence techniques and its applications, using the banking industry just for evaluation, thus, not clearly acclaiming for benefits in the banking business. By identifying these current research topics, this study also highlights opportunities for future research.

From a NoSQL data source to a business intelligence solution: An experiment

We are living in the era of Big Data. A time which is characterized by the continuous creation of vast amounts of data, originated from different sources, and with different formats. First, with the rise of the social networks and, more recently, with the advent of the Internet of Things (IoT), in which everyone and (eventually) everything is linked to the Internet, data with enormous potential for organizations is being continuously generated. In order to be more competitive, organizations want to access and explore all the richness that is present in those data. Indeed, Big Data is only as valuable as the insights organizations gather from it to make better decisions, which is the main goal of Business Intelligence. In this paper we describe an experiment in which data obtained from a NoSQL data source (database technology explicitly developed to deal with the specificities of Big Data) is used to feed a Business Intelligence solution.

Improving selective collection of urban waste using a business intelligence system

Today recovering urban waste requires effective management services, which usually imply sophisticated monitoring and analysis mechanisms. This is essential for the smooth running of the entire recycling process as well as for planning and control urban waste recovering. In this paper we present a business intelligence system especially designed and im- plemented to support regular decision-making tasks on urban waste management processes. The system provides a set of domain-oriented analytical tools for studying and characterizing poten- tial scenarios of collection processes of urban waste, as well as for supporting waste manage- ment in urban areas, allowing for the organization and optimization of collection services. In or- der to clarify the way the system was developed and the how it operates, particularly in process visualization and data analysis, we also present the organization model of the system, the ser- vices it disposes, and the interface platforms for exploring data.

Step towards of a homemade business intelligence solution: A case study in textile industry

Nowadays, organizations are increasingly looking to invest in business intelligence solutions, mainly private companies in order to get advantage over its competitors, however they do not know what is necessary. Business intelligence allows an analysis of consolidated information in order to obtain more specific outlets and certain indications in order to support the decision making process. You can take the right decision based on the data collected from different information systems present in the organization and outside of them. The textile sector is a sector where concept of Business Intelligence it is not many explored yet. Actually there are few textile companies that have a BI platform. Thus, the article objective is present an architecture and show all the steps by which companies need to spend to implement a successful free homemade Business Intelligence system. As result the proposed approach it was validated using real data aiming assess the steps defined.

Pervasive business intelligence platform to improve the quality of decision process in primary and secondary education – A Portuguese case study

Business Intelligence (BI) can be seen as a method that gathers information and data from information systems in order to help companies to be more accurate in their decision-making process. Traditionally BI systems were associated with the use of Data Warehouses (DW). The prime purpose of DW is to serve as a repository that stores all the relevant information required for making the correct decision. The necessity to integrate streaming data became crucial with the need to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the decision process. In primary and secondary education, there is a lack of BI solutions. Due to the schools reality the main purpose of this study is to provide a Pervasive BI solution able to monitoring the schools and student data anywhere and anytime in real-time as well as disseminating the information through ubiquitous devices. The first task consisted in gathering data regarding the different choices made by the student since his enrolment in a certain school year until the end of it. Thereafter a dimensional model was developed in order to be possible building a BI platform. This paper presents the dimensional model, a set of pre-defined indicators, the Pervasive Business Intelligence characteristics and the prototype designed. The main contribution of this study was to offer to the schools a tool that could help them to make accurate decisions in real-time. Data dissemination was achieved through a localized application that can be accessed anywhere and anytime.

Plataforma para suporte ao ciclo de vida de organizações virtuais e seleção dinâmica de parceiros e fornecedores

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas

Grupos de facto enquanto fenómeno organizativo plurissocietário: (in)admissibilidade da aplicação analógica dos artigos 501º e 502º do CSC aos grupos de facto qualificados

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito dos Contratos e das Empresas

Um modelo para a gestão do conhecimento organizacional no contexto dos serviços partilhados com recurso à utilização do e-Learning

Tese de Doutoramento em Tecnologias e Sistemas de Informação

The trading relationship between the EU and Mercosur: the mediatory role of Brazil

Dissertação de mestrado em European and Transglobal Business Law

Corporate Performance Management através da integração de Business Intelligence e Business Process Management

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Business intelligence no suporte às autarquias locais e à sua gestão orçamental

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Exploração de dados para soluções de retalho em business intelligence

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia de Gestão e Sistemas de Informação

Modelação de governo electrónico para países emergentes: O caso de São Tomé e Príncipe

Tese de Doutoramento em Tecnologias e Sistemas de Informação