Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Study to determine the cardiovascular risk ofthe population of Guimarães/Vizela, includingthe prevalence of arterial stiffness and early vascular aging syndrome

Tese de Doutoramento em Medicina.

Prevalence of thyroiditis and immunohistochemistry study searching for a morphologic consensus in morphology of autoimmune thyroiditis in a 4613 autopsies series

We sought to verify the prevalence of lymphocytic thyroiditis (LT) and Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) in autopsy materials. Cases examined between 2003 and 2007 at the Department of Pathology of Faculty of Medicine of São Paulo University were studied. Immunohistochemical analyses were conducted in selected cases to characterize the type of infiltrating mononuclear cells; in addition, we evaluated the frequency of apoptosis by TUNEL assay technique and caspase-3 immunostaining. Significant increase in overall thyroiditis frequency was observed in the present series when compared with the previous report (2.2978% vs. 0.0392%). Thyroiditis was more prevalent among older people. Selected cases of LT and HT (5 cases each) had their infiltrating lymphocytes characterized by immunohistochemical analyses. Both LT and HT showed similar immunostaining patterns for CD4, CD8, CD68, thus supporting a common pathophysiology mechanism and indicating that LT and HT should be considered different presentations of a same condition, that is, autoimmune thyroiditis. Moreover, apoptosis markers strongly evidenced that apoptosis was present in all studied cases. Our results demonstrated an impressive increase in the prevalence of thyroiditis during recent years and our data support that the terminology of autoimmune thyroiditis should be used to designate both LT and HT. This classification would facilitate comparison of prevalence data from different series and studies.