Aplicação da teoria das opções reais em análise de projetos estratégicos: um estudo de caso sobre o valor da opção de prosseguir com os investimentos no programa de desenvolvimento de submarinos da Marinha do Brasil

Dissertação de mestrado em Estudos de Gestão

Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

“Learning-by-producing” in the fashion value chain

Proceedings da AUTEX 2015, Bucareste, Roménia.

Influence of river ecological condition on changes in physico-chemical water parameters along rivers

Dissertação de mestrado em Ecology

Nutritional value, bioactive compounds and antioxidant properties of three edible mushrooms from Poland

Mushrooms contain a multitude of biomolecules with nutritional and/or biological activity. Among the bioactive molecules, phenolic compounds and tocopherols are the most responsible for their antioxidant activity. In the present work, Boletus edulis, Lentinus edodes and Xerocomus badius, three edible mushroom species originated from Poland, were analyzed for their chemical composition and antioxidant activity. Carbohydrates were the most abundant macronutrients, followed by proteins and ash. Fructose, mannitol and trehalose were the prevalent sugars, but glucose was only found in B. edulis. Polyunsaturated fatty acids predominated over mono and saturated fatty acids. Palmitic, oleic and linoleic acids were abundant in the three samples. α- and β- Tocopherols were quantified in all the samples, but γ-tocopherol was only identified in X. badius. Oxalic and fumaric acids were quantified in the three samples; quinic acid was only present in L. edodes, and malic and citric acids were only found in X. badius. p-Hydroxybenzoic, protocatechuic and cinnamic acids were quantified in all the species, while p-coumaric acid was only found in B. edulis. This species and X. badius revealed the highest antioxidant properties, being B. edulis more effective in radicals scavenging activity and reducing power, and X. badius in lipid peroxidation inhibition, which is related with the highest amounts in phenolic compounds and tocopherols, respectively.

Smart interior design of buildings and its relationship to land use

Architectural design is often associated with aesthetics and style, but it is also very important to building performance and sustainability. There are some studies associating architectural design to the choice for materials from sustainable sources, to indoor air quality, to energy efficiency and productivity. This article takes a step further to analyse how the use of efficient interior design techniques can impact the habitable space in order to improve building sustainability in land use. Smart interior design, a current trend related to the use of efficient and flexible furniture and movable walls in tiny or compact apartments, is analysed. A building with a standard design is used as a case study reference building and compared to a proposed theoretical design alternative using smart interior design techniques. In order to correctly assess sustainability performance, a quantifiable and verified method is used. Results showed that the use of smart interior design techniques can greatly reduce buildingsâ impact on the environment.

Assessment of the effects of the expansion of the city of Estarreja on the rational land use

The management of urban environment, together with the preservation of the natural environment and the creation of a sustainable built environment, is a complex challenge for contemporary societies. In the name of progress, cities are contributing for the degradation of all surrounding ecosystems. Therefore there is an arising demand for developing new strategies and a new urban development paradigm settled in the search for the equilibrium between natural and built environments and efficient use of resources. The objective of this paper is to analyse how the urban expansion of the city of Estarreja took place in relation to the land use, based on the land capability classification maps of the area. Based in the results some sustainable development strategies that might be applied to the city are discussed. The obtained results demonstrate that the city has been growing faster then its population, consuming vast portions of land, since its growth as been occurring in a linear form. Despite this fact, results show that most of this expansion took place towards a territory of lower agricultural potential, when comparing to the location of its original settlement.

Study of the of the concept of community buildings and its importance for land use efficiency

Nowadays cities are facing several environmental problems due to the population migration to urban areas, which is causing urban sprawl. This way, it is very important to define solutions to improve Land Use Efficiency (LUE). This article proposes the use of community buildings features as a solution to increase land use efficiency. Community buildings consider the design of shared building spaces to reduce the floor area of buildings. This work tests the performance of some case-study buildings regarding LUE to analyse its possible pros and cons. A quantifiable method is used to assess buildingsâ LUE, which considers the number of occupants, the gross floor area, the functional area, the implantation area and the allotment area. Buildings with higher values for this index have reduced environmental impacts because they use less construction materials, produce less construction and demolition wastes and require less energy for building operation. The results showed that the use of community building features can increase Land Use Efficiency of buildings.

Sustainability assessment of envelope wall solutions using MAXergy methodology

Projeto de investigação integrado de International Master in Sustainable Built Environment

Lewis Score - Prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel Crohn's disease

Background and aims: Small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) allows mapping of small bowel inflammation in Crohn’s disease (CD). We aimed to assess the prognostic value of the severity of inflammatory lesions, quantified by the Lewis score (LS), in patients with isolated small bowel CD. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in which 53 patients with isolated small bowel CD were submitted to SBCE at the time of diagnosis. The Lewis score was calculated and patients had at least 12 months of follow-up after diagnosis. As adverse events we defined disease flare requiring systemic corticosteroid therapy, hospitalization and/or surgery during follow-up. We compared the incidence of adverse events in 2 patient subgroups, i.e. those with moderate or severe inflammatory activity (LS =790) and those with mild inflammatory activity (135 = LS < 790). Results: The LS was =790 in 22 patients (41.5%), while 58.5% presented with LS between 135 and 790. Patients with a higher LS were more frequently smokers (p = 0.01), males (p = 0017) and under immunosuppressive therapy (p = 0.004). In multivariate analysis, moderate to severe disease at SBCE was independently associated with corticosteroid therapy during follow-up, with a relative risk (RR) of 5 (p = 0.011; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5–17.8), and for hospitalization, with an RR of 13.7 (p = 0 .028; 95% CI 1.3–141.9). Conclusion: In patients with moderate to severe inflammatory activity there were higher prevalences of corticosteroid therapy demand and hospitalization during follow-up. Thus, stratifying the degree of small bowel inflammatory activity with SBCE and LS calculation at the time of diagnosis provided relevant prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel CD.

A importância dos espaços verdes para a promoção de Guimarães a capital verde da Europa

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Geografia (área de especialização em Planeamento e Gestão do Território)

Exploitation of Ashbya gossypii for the production of high-value products from glycerol feedstocks

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioengenharia