Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

A FEM-based model to study the behaviour of corroded RC beams shear repaired by NSM CFRP rods technique

This paper presents the main features of finite element FE numerical model developed using the computer code FEMIX to predict the near-surface mounted NSM carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer CFRP rods shear repair contribution to corroded reinforced concrete RC beams. In the RC beams shear repaired with NSM technique, the Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves onto the concrete cover of the RC beam’s lateral faces and are bonded to the concrete with high epoxy adhesive. Experimental and 3D numerical modelling results are presented in this paper in terms of load-deflection curves, and failure modes for 4 short corroded beams: two corroded beams (A1CL3-B and A1CL3-SB) and two control beams (A1T-B and A1T-SB), the beams noted with B were let repaired in bending only with NSM CFRP rods while the ones noted with SB were repaired in both bending and shear with NSM technique. The corrosion of the tensile steel bars and its effect on the shear capacity of the RC beams was discussed. Results showed that the FE model was able to capture the main aspects of the experimental load-deflection curves of the RC beams, moreover it has presented the experimental failure modes and FE numerical modelling crack patterns and both gave similar results for non-shear repaired beams which failed in diagonal tension mode of failure and for shear-repaired beams which failed due to large flexural crack at the middle of the beams along with the concrete crushing, three dimensional crack patterns were produced for shear-repaired beams in order to investigate the splitting cracks occurred at the middle of the beams and near the support.

A FEM-based model to study the behaviour of corroded RC beams shear repaired by NSM CFRP rods technique

This paper presents the main features of finite element FE numerical model developed using the computer code FEMIX to predict the near-surface mounted NSM carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer CFRP rods shear repair contribution to corroded reinforced concrete RC beams. In the RC beams shear repaired with NSM technique, the Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves onto the concrete cover of the RC beam’s lateral faces and are bonded to the concrete with high epoxy adhesive. Experimental and 3D numerical modelling results are presented in this paper in terms of load-deflection curves, failure modes and slip information of the tensile steel bars for 4 short corroded beams: two corroded beams (A1CL3-B and A1CL3-SB) and two control beams (A1T-B and A1T-SB), the beams noted with B were let repaired in bending only with NSM CFRP rods while the ones noted with SB were repaired in both bending and shear with NSM technique. The corrosion of the tensile steel bars and its effect on the shear capacity of the RC beams was discussed. Results showed that the FE model was able to capture the main aspects of the experimental load-deflection curves of the RC beams, moreover it has presented the experimental failure modes and FE numerical modelling crack patterns and both gave similar results for non-shear repaired beams which failed in diagonal tension mode of failure and for shear-repaired beams which failed due to large flexural crack at the middle of the beams along with the concrete crushing, three dimensional crack patterns were produced for shear-repaired beams in order to investigate the splitting cracks occurred at the middle of the beams and near the support.

Experimental analysis of the cyclic response of traditional timber joints and their influence on the seismic capacity of timber frame structures

Timber connections represent the crucial part of a timber structure and a great variability exists in terms of types of connections and mechanisms. Taking as case study the widespread traditional timber frame structures, in particular the Portuguese Pombalino buildings, one of the most common timber connection is the half-lap joint. Connections play a major role in the overall behaviour of a structure, particularly when assessing their seismic response, since damage is concentrated at the connections. For this reason, an experimental campaign was designed and distinct types of tests were carried out on traditional half-lap joints to assess their in-plane response. In particular, pull-out and in-plane cyclic tests were carried out on real scale unreinforced connections. Subsequently, the connections were retrofitted, using strengthening techniques such as self-tapping screws, steel plates and GFRP sheets. The tests chosen were meant to capture the hysteretic behaviour and dissipative capacity of the connections and characterise their response and, therefore, their influence on the seismic response of timber frame walls, particularly concerning their uplifting and rotation capacity, that could lead to rocking in the walls. In this paper, the results of the experimental campaign are presented in terms of hysteretic curves, dissipated energy and equivalent viscous damping ratio. Moreover, recommendations are provided on the most appropriate retrofitting solutions.

Tensile creep of a structural epoxy adhesive: experimental and analytical characterization

Epoxy adhesives are nowadays being extensively used in Civil Engineering applications, mostly in the scope of the rehabilitation of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. In this context, epoxy adhesives are used to provide adequate stress transference from fibre reinforced polymers (FRP) to the surrounding concrete substrate. Most recently, the possibility of using prestressed FRPs bonded with these epoxy adhesives is also being explored in order to maximize the potentialities of this strengthening approach. In this context, the understanding of the long term behaviour of the involved materials becomes essential. Even when non-prestressed FRPs are used a certain amount of stress is permanently applied on the adhesive interface during the serviceability conditions of the strengthened structure, and the creep of the adhesive may cause a continuous variation in the deformational response of the element. In this context, this paper presents a study aiming to experimentally characterize the tensile creep behaviour of an epoxy-based adhesive currently used in the strengthening of concrete structures with carbon FRP (CFRP) systems. To analytically describe the tensile creep behaviour, the modified Burgers model was fitted to the experimental creep curves, and the obtained results revealed that this model is capable of predicting with very good accuracy the long term behaviour of this material up to a sustained stress level of 60% of the adhesive’s tensile strength.

Mapping numbers onto space in preschool children and adults

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia - Especialidade em Psicologia Experimental e Ciências Cognitivas

High strain rate constitutive modeling forhistorical structures subjected to blast loading

Doctoral Thesis Civil Engineering