Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Influence of saliva and mucin on the adhesion of Candida oral clinical isolates

Objectives: This research work intends to clarify the role of artificial saliva, in particularly the role of mucin, a salivary protein, on the surface properties and adhesion ability of Candida spp. oral clinical isolates to abiotic surfaces. Methods: Four oral clinical isolates of Candida spp. were used: two Candida albicans strains (AC; AM) and two Candida parapsilosis strains (AD; AM2). The strains were isolated from patients using oral prosthesis. The microorganisms were cultured in the absence or presence of mucin and artificial saliva, and their adhesion to an abiotic surface (coated with mucin and artificial saliva) was evaluated. Results: The presence of mucin per se onto the abiotic surface decreased the adhesion of all strains, although the combination of mucin with artificial saliva had reduced this effect. No direct correlation between adhesion and the surface free energies of adhesion of the microorganisms was found. Significance: Candida spp. were human commensal microorganisms that became pathogenic when the host immune defenses were compromised. Medical devices were colonized by Candida spp. particularly, oral prostheses, which might lead to the degradation of the prostheses and systemic infections. The salivary secretions that constantly cover the oral cavity influenced Candida spp. adhesion process. Therefore, it was important to understand the interactions between Candida spp., salivary proteins and the characteristic of oral prosthesis when developing materials for oral prostheses.

O uso das palavras: estatuto da comunicação oral nas aulas de Português e de Espanhol

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino do Português no 3º ciclo do Ensino Básico e Ensino Secundário e do Espanhol nos Ensinos Básico e Secundário