Hierarchical modelling of timber reference properties using probabilistic methods: Maximum Likelihood Method, Bayesian Methods and Probability Networks

In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.

Equity offerings, stock price crash risk, and the impact of securities regulation: international evidence

We examine whether earnings manipulation around seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) is associated with an increase in the likelihood of a stock price crash post-issue and test whether the enactment of securities regulations attenuate the relation between SEOs and crash risk. Empirical evidence documents that managerial tendency to conceal bad news increases the likelihood of a stock price crash (Jin and Myers, 2006; Hutton, Marcus, and Tehranian, 2009). We test this hypothesis using a sample of firms from 29 EU countries that enacted the Market Abuse Directive (MAD). Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that equity issuers that engage in earnings management experience a significant increase in crash risk post-SEO relative to control groups of non-issuers; this effect is stronger for equity issuers with poor information environments. In addition, our findings show a significant decline in crash risk post-issue after the enactment of MAD that is stronger for firms that actively manage earnings. This decline in post-issue crash risk is more effective in countries with high ex-ante institutional quality and enforcement. These results suggest that the implementation of MAD helps to mitigate managers’ ability to manipulate earnings around SEOs.

Measurement of the top pair production cross-section in 8 TeV proton-proton collisions using kinematic information in the lepton+jets final state with ATLAS

A measurement is presented of the tt¯ inclusive production cross section in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of s√=8  TeV using data collected by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurement was performed in the lepton+jets final state using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3  fb−1. The cross section was obtained using a likelihood discriminant fit and b-jet identification was used to improve the signal-to-background ratio. The inclusive tt¯ production cross section was measured to be 260±1(stat)+22−23(stat)±8(lumi)±4(beam)  pb assuming a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV, in good agreement with the theoretical prediction of 253+13−15  pb. The tt¯→(e,μ)+jets production cross section in the fiducial region determined by the detector acceptance is also reported.

Alcohol sponsored events: the impact on attitudes and intentions, and the mitigating impact of persuasion knowledge

Doctor of Philosophy in Marketing and Strategy

Search for s-channel single top-quark production in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This Letter presents a search at the LHC for s-channel single top-quark production in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The analyzed data set was recorded by the ATLAS detector and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1. Selected events contain one charged lepton, large missing transverse momentum and exactly two b-tagged jets. A multivariate event classifier based on boosted decision trees is developed to discriminate s-channel single top-quark events from the main background contributions. The signal extraction is based on a binned maximum-likelihood fit of the output classifier distribution. The analysis leads to an upper limit on the s-channel single top-quark production cross-section of 14.6 pb at the 95% confidence level. The fit gives a cross-section of σs=5.0±4.3 pb, consistent with the Standard Model expectation.

Measurement of the top-quark mass in the fully hadronic decay channel from ATLAS data at s√=7 TeV

The mass of the top quark is measured in a data set corresponding to 4.6 fb−1 of proton--proton collisions with centre-of-mass energy s√=7 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events consistent with hadronic decays of top--antitop quark pairs with at least six jets in the final state are selected. The substantial background from multijet production is modelled with data-driven methods that utilise the number of identified b-quark jets and the transverse momentum of the sixth leading jet, which have minimal correlation. The top-quark mass is obtained from template fits to the ratio of three-jet to dijet mass. The three-jet mass is calculated from the three jets of a top-quark decay. Using these three jets the dijet mass is obtained from the two jets of the W boson decay. The top-quark mass obtained from this fit is thus less sensitive to the uncertainty in the energy measurement of the jets. A binned likelihood fit yields a top-quark mass of mt = 175.1 ± 1.4 (stat.) ± 1.2 (syst.) GeV.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

On the length of bank-firm relationships: an empirical application to a major French bank

NIPE - WP 01/ 2016

Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts

Many democratic decision making institutions involve quorum rules. Such rules are commonly motivated by concerns about the “legitimacy” or “representativeness” of decisions reached when only a subset of eligible voters participates. A prominent example of this can be found in the context of direct democracy mechanisms, such as referenda and initiatives. We conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the consequences of the two most common types of quorum rules: a participation quorum and an approval quorum. We find that both types of quora lead to lower participation rates, dramatically increasing the likelihood of full-fledged electoral boycotts on the part of those who endorse the Status Quo. This discouraging effect is significantly larger under a participation quorum than under an approval quorum.

Search for flavour-changing neutral current top quark decays t → Hq in pp collisions at √s=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for flavour-changing neutral current decays of a top quark to an uptype quark (q = u, c) and the Standard Model Higgs boson, where the Higgs boson decays to bb¯¯, is presented. The analysis searches for top quark pair events in which one top quark decays to Wb, with the W boson decaying leptonically, and the other top quark decays to Hq. The search is based on pp collisions at s√=8 TeV recorded in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and uses an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1. Data are analysed in the lepton-plus-jets final state, characterised by an isolated electron or muon and at least four jets. The search exploits the high multiplicity of b-quark jets characteristic of signal events, and employs a likelihood discriminant that uses the kinematic differences between the signal and the background, which is dominated by tt¯→WbWb decays. No significant excess of events above the background expectation is found, and observed (expected) 95% CL upper limits of 0.56% (0.42%) and 0.61% (0.64%) are derived for the t → Hc and t → Hu branching ratios respectively. The combination of this search with other ATLAS searches in the H → γγ and H → WW *, ττ decay modes significantly improves the sensitivity, yielding observed (expected) 95% CL upper limits on the t → Hc and t → Hu branching ratios of 0.46% (0.25%) and 0.45% (0.29%) respectively. The corresponding combined observed (expected) upper limits on the |λ tcH | and |λ tuH | couplings are 0.13 (0.10) and 0.13 (0.10) respectively. These are the most restrictive direct bounds on tqH interactions measured so far.

Escritas da utopia na literatura contemporânea – da utopia à distopia

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Literatura (Especialidade em Literatura Comparada)

Global validation of the WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections: a prospective multicentre study (WISS Study).

BACKGROUND To validate a new practical Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) including the clinical conditions at the admission (severe sepsis/septic shock), the origin of the cIAIs, the delay in source control, the setting of acquisition and any risk factors such as age and immunosuppression. METHODS The WISS study (WSES cIAIs Score Study) is a multicenter observational study underwent in 132 medical institutions worldwide during a four-month study period (October 2014-February 2015). Four thousand five hundred thirty-three patients with a mean age of 51.2 years (range 18-99) were enrolled in the WISS study. RESULTS Univariate analysis has shown that all factors that were previously included in the WSES Sepsis Severity Score were highly statistically significant between those who died and those who survived (p < 0.0001). The multivariate logistic regression model was highly significant (p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.54) and showed that all these factors were independent in predicting mortality of sepsis. Receiver Operator Curve has shown that the WSES Severity Sepsis Score had an excellent prediction for mortality. A score above 5.5 was the best predictor of mortality having a sensitivity of 89.2 %, a specificity of 83.5 % and a positive likelihood ratio of 5.4. CONCLUSIONS WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated Intra-abdominal infections can be used on global level. It has shown high sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio that may help us in making clinical decisions.

Exploring the factor structure of neurocognitive measures in older individuals

Here we focus on factor analysis from a best practices point of view, by investigating the factor structure of neuropsychological tests and using the results obtained to illustrate on choosing a reasonable solution. The sample (n=1051 individuals) was randomly divided into two groups: one for exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and principal component analysis (PCA), to investigate the number of factors underlying the neurocognitive variables; the second to test the "best fit" model via confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). For the exploratory step, three extraction (maximum likelihood, principal axis factoring and principal components) and two rotation (orthogonal and oblique) methods were used. The analysis methodology allowed exploring how different cognitive/psychological tests correlated/discriminated between dimensions, indicating that to capture latent structures in similar sample sizes and measures, with approximately normal data distribution, reflective models with oblimin rotation might prove the most adequate.

Ingestão de plásticos por aves marinhas na Costa Norte de Portugal

Dissertação de mestrado em Ecologia

The real economic effects of cross-delistingfrom the united states: evidence on post-operating performance, financial constraints and stock crash risk

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Empresariais.