Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Institutional posters’ eBook: according to 1st Workshop with “Focus on experimental testing of cement based materials”

COST TU 1404

Changes in institutional governance and management of higher education in Laos: National University of Laos

PhD thesis in Educational Sciences (specialization in Politics of Education).

Quality of institutional care and early childhood development

Institutional rearing adversely affects children’s development, but the extent to which specific characteristics of the institutional context and the quality of care provided contribute to problematic development remains unclear. In this study, 72 preschoolers institutionalised for at least 6 months were evaluated by their caregiver using the Child Behavior Checklist and the Disturbances of Attachment Interview. Distal and proximate indices of institutional caregiving quality were assessed using both staff reports and direct observation. Results revealed that greater caregiver sensitivity predicted reduced indiscriminate behaviour and secure-base distortions. A closer relationship with the caregiver predicted reduced inhibited attachment behaviour. Emotional and behavioural problems proved unrelated to caregiving quality. Results are discussed in terms of (non)-shared caregiving factors that influence institutionalised children’s development.

The trading relationship between the EU and Mercosur: the mediatory role of Brazil

Dissertação de mestrado em European and Transglobal Business Law

Social entrepreneurship: does institutional environment make a difference?

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of the link between social entrepreneurs and institutional environment in Portugal. A quantitative approach is used in the study, and primary data were collected through an online survey. A questionnaire was emailed to, both, Portuguese Non-Governmental organizations and projects available on the Portuguese social stock exchange. In the analysis of the data were used descriptive statistics, factorial analysis and t-student tests to validate (or not) the research hypotheses. The results show that a favorable institutional environment has a low importance in the decision to develop social initiatives. This conclusion supports the idea that many social entrepreneurs can emerge even in developing regions where the institutional environment is weak. Therefore, social entrepreneurship could be an instrument of regional development and contribute to attenuate the social and economic differences among Portuguese regions.

The role of liquid-based cytology and ancillary techniques in pleural and pericardic effusions: An institutional experience

BACKGROUND: Fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) of serous membrane effusions may fulfil a challenging role in the diagnostic analysis of both primary and metastatic disease. From this perspective, liquid-based cytology (LBC) represents a feasible and reliable method for empowering the performance of ancillary techniques (ie, immunocytochemistry and molecular testing) with high diagnostic accuracy. METHODS: In total, 3171 LBC pleural and pericardic effusions were appraised between January 2000 and December 2013. They were classified as negative for malignancy (NM), suspicious for malignancy (SM), or positive for malignancy (PM). RESULTS: The cytologic diagnoses included 2721 NM effusions (2505 pleural and 216 pericardic), 104 SM effusions (93 pleural and 11 pericardic), and 346 PM effusions (321 pleural and 25 pericardic). The malignant pleural series included 76 unknown malignancies (36 SM and 40 PM effusions), 174 metastatic lesions (85 SM and 89 PM effusions), 14 lymphomas (3 SM and 11 PM effusions), 16 mesotheliomas (5 SM and 11 SM effusions), and 3 myelomas (all SM effusions). The malignant pericardic category included 20 unknown malignancies (5 SM and 15 PM effusions), 15 metastatic lesions (1 SM and 14 PM effusions), and 1 lymphoma (1 PM effusion). There were 411 conclusive immunocytochemical analyses and 47 molecular analyses, and the authors documented 88% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 98% diagnostic accuracy, 98% negative predictive value, and 100% positive predictive value for FNAC. CONCLUSIONS: FNAC represents a primary diagnostic tool for effusions and a reliable approach with which to determine the correct follow-up. Furthermore, LBC is useful for ancillary techniques, such as immunocytochemistry and molecular analysis, with feasible diagnostic and predictive utility.

Our place in history: young feminists at the margins

Feminisms in Portugal, as elsewhere, have been shaped historically. From the revolutions of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, which ended monarchy and established a republican system, women have taken a stand. In the late 1970s, after 48 years of dictatorship during which feminist issues were effectively silenced, feminist groups began to appear in Portugal. It was then, in 1976, that UMAR (Unia˜o de Mulheres Alternativa e Resposta [‘Union of Women for Alternatives and Answers’]) began its fight against discrimination and violence against women.

Caracterização dos pais das crianças com NEE e análise do sistema de apoio: um estudo exploratório na cidade de Manaus

Dissertação de mestrado em Educação Especial (área de especialização em Dificuldades de Aprendizagem Específicas)

Velhas e novas drogas: impactos da toxicodependência: estudo de caso na cidade de Braga

Dissertação de mestrado em Sociologia (área de especialização em Organizações e Trabalho)

Childhood history of abuse and child abuse potential: the role of parent’s gender and timing of childhood abuse

It has been suggested that being physically abused leads to someone becoming a perpetrator of abuse which could be associated to parents' gender, timing of the physical abuse and specific socio-demographic variables. This study aims to investigate the role the parents' gender, timing of childhood abuse and socio-demographic variables on the relationship between parents' history of childhood physical abuse and current risk for children. The sample consisted of 920 parents (414 fathers, 506 mothers) from the Portuguese National Representative Study of Psychosocial Context of Child Abuse and Neglect who completed the Childhood History Questionnaire and the Child Abuse Potential Inventory. The results showed that fathers had lower current potential risk of becoming physical abuse perpetrators with their children than mothers although they did not differed in their physical victimization history. Moreover, the risk was higher in parents (both genders) with continuous history of victimization than in parents without victimization. Prediction models showed that for fathers and mothers separately similar socio-demographic variables (family income, number of children at home, employment status and marital status) predicted the potential risk of becoming physical abuses perpetrators. Nevertheless, the timing of victimization was different for fathers (before 13 years old) and mothers (after 13 years old). Then our study targets specific variables (timing of physical abuse, parents' gender and specific socio-demographic variables), which may enable professionals to select groups of parents at greater need of participating in abuse prevention programs.