Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Development and psychometric properties of ECPICID-AVC to measure informal caregivers’ skills when caring for older stroke survivors at home

Introduction: Informal caregivers provide a significant part of the total care needed by dependent older people poststroke. Although informal care is often the preferred option of those who provide and those who receive informal care, informal caregivers often report lack of preparation to take care of older dependent people. This article outlines the development and psychometric testing of informal caregivers’ skills when providing care to older people after a stroke – ECPICID-AVC. Design: Prospective psychometric instrument validation study. Methods: Eleven experts participated in a focus group in order to delineate, develop and validate the instrument. Data were gathered among adult informal caregivers (n = 186) living in the community in Northern Portugal from August 2013 to January 2014. Results: The 32-item scale describes several aspects of informal caregiver’s skills. The scale has eight factors: skill to feed/hydrate by nasogastric feeding, skill to assist the person in personal hygiene, skill to assist the person for transferring, skill to assist the person for positioning, skill to provide technical aids, skill to assist the person to use the toilet, skill to feed/hydrate and skill to provide technical aids for dressing/undressing. Analysis demonstrated adequate internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.83) and good temporal stability 0.988 (0.984–0.991). Conclusion: The psychometric properties of the measurement tool showed acceptable results allowing its implementation in clinical practice by the nursing community staff for evaluating practical skills in informal caregivers when providing care to older stroke survivors living at home.

Cortisol, family coping and burden in informal caregivers of addicts

This study focuses on the prospective mediation role of family coping between burden and cortisol levels in informal caregivers of addicts as well as on the feasible use of two different ways to analyse the salivary cortisol levels. Participants were 120 Portuguese informal caregivers of addicts. The cortisol samples were collected at awakening, 45 minutes later and after a 30 minute presentation of images taken from the International Affective Picture System. Family coping and caregiver burden were measured using the Portuguese versions of the Caregiver Reaction Assessment, and the Family Crisis Oriented Personal Evaluation Scale. Cortisol samples were collected in salivettes and the results were computed in order to determine the Area Under the Curve scores (AUCg, AUCi). Results found family coping to be negatively correlated with burden and AUCg levels (i.e. overall intensity) and positively correlated with either AUCg and AUCi (i.e. change over time). The mediation model revealed that family coping was a partial mediator in the relationship between the burden and AUCg levels. Therefore, Family Coping appears to be an essential variable in understanding the stress response and should be considered in further studies and interventions. In addition, the use of two different formulas for calculating cortisol levels provided important new information concerning the relationship between cortisol, burden and family coping. It seems that burden has a more profound effect on the overall intensity of the neuroendocrine response to caregiver stress and not so much on the sensitivity of the system.