Pervasive decision support to predict football corners and goals by means of data mining

Football is considered nowadays one of the most popular sports. In the betting world, it has acquired an outstanding position, which moves millions of euros during the period of a single football match. The lack of profitability of football betting users has been stressed as a problem. This lack gave origin to this research proposal, which it is going to analyse the possibility of existing a way to support the users to increase their profits on their bets. Data mining models were induced with the purpose of supporting the gamblers to increase their profits in the medium/long term. Being conscience that the models can fail, the results achieved by four of the seven targets in the models are encouraging and suggest that the system can help to increase the profits. All defined targets have two possible classes to predict, for example, if there are more or less than 7.5 corners in a single game. The data mining models of the targets, more or less than 7.5 corners, 8.5 corners, 1.5 goals and 3.5 goals achieved the pre-defined thresholds. The models were implemented in a prototype, which it is a pervasive decision support system. This system was developed with the purpose to be an interface for any user, both for an expert user as to a user who has no knowledge in football games.

Predicting preterm birth in maternity care by means of data mining

Worldwide, around 9% of the children are born with less than 37 weeks of labour, causing risk to the premature child, whom it is not prepared to develop a number of basic functions that begin soon after the birth. In order to ensure that those risk pregnancies are being properly monitored by the obstetricians in time to avoid those problems, Data Mining (DM) models were induced in this study to predict preterm births in a real environment using data from 3376 patients (women) admitted in the maternal and perinatal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto. A sensitive metric to predict preterm deliveries was developed, assisting physicians in the decision-making process regarding the patients’ observation. It was possible to obtain promising results, achieving sensitivity and specificity values of 96% and 98%, respectively.

Predicting type of delivery by identification of obstetric risk factors through data mining

In Maternity Care, a quick decision has to be made about the most suitable delivery type for the current patient. Guidelines are followed by physicians to support that decision; however, those practice recommendations are limited and underused. In the last years, caesarean delivery has been pursued in over 28% of pregnancies, and other operative techniques regarding specific problems have also been excessively employed. This study identifies obstetric and pregnancy factors that can be used to predict the most appropriate delivery technique, through the induction of data mining models using real data gathered in the perinatal and maternal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto (CHP). Predicting the type of birth envisions high-quality services, increased safety and effectiveness of specific practices to help guide maternity care decisions and facilitate optimal outcomes in mother and child. In this work was possible to acquire good results, achieving sensitivity and specificity values of 90.11% and 80.05%, respectively, providing the CHP with a model capable of correctly identify caesarean sections and vaginal deliveries.

Peptaibolin analogues by incorporation of α,α-dialkylglycines: synthesis and study of their membrane permeating ability

Analogues of Peptaibolin, a peptaibol with antibiotic activity, incorporating α,α-dialkylglycines (Deg, Dpg, and Ac6c) at selected positions were synthesised by MW-SPPS and fully characterized. A control analogue incorporating L-alanine was also prepared. The native peptide and the analogues were studied by fluorescence spectroscopy for their membrane permeating activity. Small unilamellar vesicles (SUVs) of egg phosphatidylcholine/ cholesterol (70:30) containing an encapsulated fluorescence probe (6-carboxyfluorescein) were used as membrane models. The assays of carboxyfluorescein release from SUVs upon peptide addition showed that Peptaibolin-Dpg and Peptaibolin-Ac6c are the most active peptides. These results indicate that the structure of the α,α-dialkylglycines is crucial for the membrane permeating ability of these Peptaibolin analogues.

Predicting SO2 pollution incidents by means of additive models with optimum variable selection

The aim of this paper is to predict time series of SO2 concentrations emitted by coal-fired power stations in order to estimate in advance emission episodes and analyze the influence of some meteorological variables in the prediction. An emission episode is said to occur when the series of bi-hourly means of SO2 is greater than a specific level. For coal-fired power stations it is essential to predict emission epi- sodes sufficiently in advance so appropriate preventive measures can be taken. We proposed a meth- odology to predict SO2 emission episodes based on using an additive model and an algorithm for variable selection. The methodology was applied to the estimation of SO2 emissions registered in sampling lo- cations near a coal-fired power station located in Northern Spain. The results obtained indicate a good performance of the model considering only two terms of the time series and that the inclusion of the meteorological variables in the model is not significant.

By-products of beer fermentation

Among the most important factors influencing beer quality is the presence of well-adjusted amounts of higher alcohols and esters; as well as the successful reduction of undesirable by-products such as diacetyl. While higher alcohols and esters contribute rather positively to the beer aroma, diacetyl is mostly unwelcome for beer types with lighter taste. Thus, the complex metabolic pathways in yeast responsible for the synthesis of both pleasant and unpleasant by-products of fermentation were given special attention in this last chapter.

Genetic regulatory mechanisms by means of extended interactive Petri nets

In our work we have chosen to integrate formalism for knowledge representation with formalism for process representation as a way to specify and regulate the overall activity of a multi-cellular agent. The result of this approach is XP,N, another formalism, wherein a distributed system can be modeled as a collection of interrelated sub-nets sharing a common explicit control structure. Each sub-net represents a system of asynchronous concurrent threads modeled by a set of transitions. XP,N combines local state and control with interaction and hierarchy to achieve a high-level abstraction and to model the complex relationships between all the components of a distributed system. Viewed as a tool XP,N provides a carefully devised conflict resolution strategy that intentionally mimics the genetic regulatory mechanism used in an organic cell to select the next genes to process.

Predicting triage waiting time in maternity emergency care by means of data mining

Healthcare organizations often benefit from information technologies as well as embedded decision support systems, which improve the quality of services and help preventing complications and adverse events. In Centro Materno Infantil do Norte (CMIN), the maternal and perinatal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto (CHP), an intelligent pre-triage system is implemented, aiming to prioritize patients in need of gynaecology and obstetrics care in two classes: urgent and consultation. The system is designed to evade emergency problems such as incorrect triage outcomes and extensive triage waiting times. The current study intends to improve the triage system, and therefore, optimize the patient workflow through the emergency room, by predicting the triage waiting time comprised between the patient triage and their medical admission. For this purpose, data mining (DM) techniques are induced in selected information provided by the information technologies implemented in CMIN. The DM models achieved accuracy values of approximately 94% with a five range target distribution, which not only allow obtaining confident prediction models, but also identify the variables that stand as direct inducers to the triage waiting times.

Step towards to improve the voluntary interruption of pregnancy by means of business intelligence

With the implementation of Information and Communication Technologies in the health sector, it became possible the existence of an electronic record of information for patients, enabling the storage and the availability of their information in databases. However, without the implementation of a Business Intelligence (BI) system, this information has no value. Thus, the major motivation of this paper is to create a decision support system that allows the transformation of information into knowledge, giving usability to the stored data. The particular case addressed in this chapter is the Centro Materno Infantil do Norte, in particular the Voluntary Interruption of Pregnancy unit. With the creation of a BI system for this module, it is possible to design an interoperable, pervasive and real-time platform to support the decision-making process of health professionals, based on cases that occurred. Furthermore, this platform enables the automation of the process for obtaining key performance indicators that are presented annually by this health institution. In this chapter, the BI system implemented in the VIP unity in CMIN, some of the KPIs evaluated as well as the benefits of this implementation are presented.