Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Sustainable mortars with incorporation of microencapsulated phase change materials

The construction industry is responsible for high energy and raw materials consumption. Thus, it is important to minimize the high energy consumption by taking advantage of renewable energy sources and reusing industrial waste, decreasing the extraction of natural materials. The mortars with incorporation of phase change materials (PCM) have the ability to regulate the temperature inside buildings, contributing to the thermal comfort and reduction of the use of heating and cooling equipment, using only the energy supplied by the sun. The simultaneous incorporation of PCM and fly ash (FA) can reduce the energy consumption and the amount of materials landfilled. However, the addition of these materials in mortars modifies its characteristics. The main purpose of this study was the production and characterization in the fresh and hardened state of mortars with incorporation of different contents of PCM and FA. The binders studied were aerial lime, hydraulic lime, gypsum and cement. The proportion of PCM studied was 0%, 20%, 40% and 60% of the mass of the sand. The content of fly ash added to the mortars was 0%, 20%, 40% and 60% of the mass of the binder. It was possible to observe that the incorporation of PCM and fly ash in mortars caused differences in properties such as workability, microstructure, water absorption, compressive strength, flexural strength and adhesion.

Assessing the feasibility of impregnating phase change materials in lightweight aggregate for development of thermal energy storage systems

This paper assesses the feasibility of impregnation/encasement of phase change materials (PCMs) in lightweight aggregates (LWAs). An impregnation process was adopted to carry out the encasement study of two different PCMs in four different LWAs. The leakage of the impregnated/encased PCMs was studied when they were submitted to freeze/thawing and oven drying tests, separately. The results confirmed that, the impregnation/encasement method is effective with respect to the large thermal energy storage density, and can be suitable for applications were PCMs cannot be incorporated directly such as asphalt road pavements.

HLT Hilotec: self-building manual for sustainable housing

The future of the construction industry will require changes at many levels. One is the ability of companies to adapt to new challenges, converting needs to opportunities and simultaneously contributing to the solving of social and environmental problems. In the coming decades we will see a change in attitude in the industry, with a strong tendency to adopt natural and recycled materials, as well as bet on green technology and social innovation oriented to emerging countries. On the other hand, emerging countries have a high demand for housing construction on a large scale, but the current techniques in the developed countries for building requires a large amount of natural resources and skilled labor. This contextualization brings sustainability problems for the construction sector in emerging countries, often with scarce natural resources and with the construction sector underdeveloped. Through a cooperative action between the construction company Mota-Engil Engineering and the University of Minho in Portugal, a construction technology was developed based on the use of Compressed Earth Blocks as part of a social concept for innovative small houses, favoring the adoption of local and natural materials and with the main premise of being dedicated to self-construction. The HiLoTec project - Development of a Sustainable Self-Construction System for Developing Countries was based on this idea. One of the several results of this project is this construction manual. To Mota-Engil the project was a platform for incubation of knowledge about earth construction and to obtain a constructive solution validated technically and scientifically, suitable to be implemented in the markets where it operates. For the University of Minho the project was an opportunity to strengthen skills in research, laboratory and scientific development, through the development of engineering studies, architecture and sustainability, as well as supporting the doctoral scholarships and dissemination of scientific publications. May the knowledge of this project be of benefit, in the future, for the welfare of those who build a HiLoTec house.

Recensão de Lee, E. (2005). How internet radio can change the world : an activist’s handbook. Nova Iorque : iUniverse, Inc.

(Excerto) O entusiasmo pela comunicação digital percorre transversalmente a obra How Internet Radio Can Change the World: An Activist’s Handbook, de Eric Lee. Esta postura tão apologista das possibilidades comunicativas oferecidas pela Internet reforça provavelmente um conjunto alargado de entendimentos sobre a conquista do quotidiano pelo digital. Em 1967, McLuhan e Fiore já se referiam aos circuitos eletrónicos como ‘extensões do sistema nervoso central’. Numa leitura mais contemporânea, José Bragança de Miranda refere: “vivemos, nos nossos dias, no meio de conexões, de links, do on‑line, estamos votados à participação, à ‘interactividade’, etc. Algo de novo está a emergir” (2001, p. 265). Maria Teresa Cruz (2001) define a convergência tecnológica das relações sociais como a ‘mobilização erótica da técnica’. Esta obra aqui recenseada pretende, assim, desafiar a utilização da rádio digital para “melhorar a comunicação e solidificar as organizações” (p. 1), em torno de três grupos de reflexão.

Fashion communication: a way to change comsumption behaviour towards ethical fashion

In view of the major social and environmental problems, with which we are faced nowadays, we noticed a certain absence of values in society, where man draws many more resources than nature can replace in the short or medium term. Within the framework of fashion emerges the ethical fashion as a movement in this direction, intending to change this current paradigm. Ethical fashion encompasses different concepts such as fair trade, sustainability, working conditions, raw materials, social responsibility and the protection of animals. This study aims to determine which type of communication are fashion brands using in this context, and if this communication aims at educating the consumer for a more ethical consumer behavior. For this study were selected 44 fashion brands associated with the Ethical Trade Initiative. The method used for the research development was content analysis for which first was made a data collection of the information provided on the websites and social networks of the selected fashion brands. The data was analyzed taking into account the quality and type of information published related to ethical fashion, for which an ordinal scale was created as a way of measuring and comparing results.

Narrative change in Gloria Films: Comparing various processes of therapeutic innovation

Aims: The present study focuses on the analysis of novelty emergence in classic Gloria Films with Rogers, Perls, and Ellis to understand how the same client formulated her own problem and if and how change occurred in those three sessions. Method: The Innovative Moments Coding System was applied to track innovative moments (IMs) and their themes. Results: The session with Rogers showed more diversity in disclosed problems and themes of IMs, as well as a higher proportion of reflection IMs. The session with Perls demonstrated a high proportion of protest IMs. The session with Ellis showed less innovation than other sessions. The changes found were based mostly on reflection and protest IMs in three sessions. Conclusion: Narrative innovations occurred in the three single sessions. The type of dominant innovation is consistent with the therapeutic model and the IMs model. The exploration of the IMs’ themes allowed a more precise identification of Gloria's new narrative positions and their development throughout those sessions.

Optimal behavior of responsive residential demand considering hybrid phase change materials

Due to communication and technology developments, residential consumers are enabled to participate in Demand Response Programs (DRPs), control their consumption and decrease their cost by using Household Energy Management (HEM) systems. On the other hand, capability of energy storage systems to improve the energy efficiency causes that employing Phase Change Materials (PCM) as thermal storage systems to be widely addressed in the building applications. In this paper, an operational model of HEM system considering the incorporation of more than one type of PCM in plastering mortars (hybrid PCM) is proposed not only to minimize the customerâ s cost in different DRPs but also to guaranty the habitantsâ  satisfaction. Moreover, the proposed model ensures the technical and economic limits of batteries and electrical appliances. Different case studies indicate that implementation of hybrid PCM in the buildings can meaningfully affect the operational pattern of HEM systems in different DRPs. The results reveal that the customerâ s electricity cost can be reduced up to 48% by utilizing the proposed model.

Ranking procedure based on mechanical, durability and thermal behavior of mortars with incorporation of phase change materials

Nowadays, considering the high variety of construction products, adequate material selection, based on their properties and function, becomes increasingly important. In this research, a ranking procedure developed by Czarnecki and Lukowski is applied in mortars with incorporation of phase change materials (PCM). The ranking procedure transforms experimental results of properties into one numerical value. The products can be classified according to their individual properties or even an optimized combination of different properties. The main purpose of this study was the ranking of mortars with incorporation of different contents of PCM based in different binders. Aerial lime, hydraulic lime, gypsum and cement were the binders studied. For each binder, three different mortars were developed. Reference mortars, mortars with incorporation of 40% of PCM and mortars with incorporation of 40% of PCM and 1% of fibers, were tested. Results show that the incorporation of PCM in mortars changes their global performance.

The efficient use of water in the context of climate change

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Dificuldades de expansão da infografia interativa: um problema de produção e receção

Dissertação de mestrado em Media Interativos

Influence of different fibers on the change of pore pressure of self-consolidating concrete exposed to fire

The focus of this paper is given to investigate the effect of different fibers on the pore pressure of fiber reinforced self-consolidating concrete under fire. The investigation on the pore pressure-time and temperature relationships at different depths of fiber reinforced self-consolidating concrete beams was carried out. The results indicated that micro PP fiber is more effective in mitigating the pore pressure than macro PP fiber and steel fiber. The composed use of steel fiber, micro PP fiber and macro PP fiber showed clear positive hybrid effect on the pore pressure reduction near the beam bottom subjected to fire. Compared to the effect of macro PP fiber with high dosages, the effect of micro PP fiber with low fiber contents on the pore pressure reduction is much stronger. The significant factor for reduction of pore pressure depends mainly on the number of PP fibers and not only on the fiber content. An empirical formula was proposed to predict the relative maximum pore pressure of fiber reinforced self-consolidating concrete exposed to fire by considering the moisture content, compressive strength and various fibers. The suggested model corresponds well with the experimental results of other research and tends to prove that the micro PP fiber can be the vital component for reduction in pore pressure, temperature as well spalling of concrete.

The Pope’s encyclical as a call for democratic social change

(Excerto) By addressing the ideologies and practices of the social dynamics entwined with climate change, the encyclical exposes the profoundly political character of global environmental change and its connection with economics and culture. The publication of the encyclical is action in the public space via language oriented to persuasion which, in Hannah Arendt’s terms, is the very essence of politics.

Climate change research and policy in Portugal

This article offers a review of research and policy on climate change in Portugal and is organized into three main themes: scientific knowledge and assessment of climate change; policy analysis and evaluation; and public engagement. Modern scientific research on meteorology and climatology started in Portugal in the 1950s and a strong community of researchers in climate science, vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation has since developed, particularly in the last decade. Nevertheless, there are still many gaps in research, especially regarding the economic costs of climate change in Portugal and costs and benefits of adaptation. Governmental policies with a strong emphasis on mitigation were introduced at the end of the 1990s. As greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise beyond its Kyoto target for 2012, the country had to resort to the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in order to comply. Climate change adaptation policies were introduced in 2010 but are far from being fully implemented. Regarding public engagement with climate change, high levels of concern contrast with limited understanding and rather weak behavioral dispositions to address climate change. Citizens display a heavy reliance on the media as sources of information, which are dominated by a techno-managerial discourse mainly focused on the global level. The final part of the article identifies research gaps and outlines a research agenda. Connections between policy and research are also discussed

Cultural circuits of climate change in U.K. broadsheet newspapers, 1985–2003

This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the “circuit of culture” model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985–2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change—1985–1990, 1991–1996, 1997–2003—which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.’s broadsheet newspapers’ discourse on “dangerous” climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.