Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

Forecasting human entrances at a commercial store using facial recognition data

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Previsão de cheias em Barcelos

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

A aprendizagem baseada na resolução de problemas na aprendizagem da Geologia: uma intervenção centrada no tópico "Ocupação antrópica e problemas de ordenamento"

Dissertação de mestrado em Ensino de Biologia e Geologia no 3º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e no Ensino Secundário

Integrated management systems as complex adaptive systems

It is a difficult task to avoid the “smart systems” topic when discussing smart prevention and, similarly, it is a difficult task to address smart systems without focusing their ability to learn. Following the same line of thought, in the current reality, it seems a Herculean task (or an irreparable omission) to approach the topic of certified occupational health and safety management systems (OHSMS) without discussing the integrated management systems (IMSs). The available data suggest that seldom are the OHSMS operating as the single management system (MS) in a company so, any statement concerning OHSMS should mainly be interpreted from an integrated perspective. A major distinction between generic systems can be drawn between those that learn, i.e., those systems that have “memory” and those that have not. These former systems are often depicted as adaptive since they take into account past events to deal with novel, similar and future events modifying their structure to enable success in its environment. Often, these systems, present a nonlinear behavior and a huge uncertainty related to the forecasting of some events. This paper seeks to portray, for the first time as we were able to find out, the IMSs as complex adaptive systems (CASs) by listing their properties and dissecting the features that enable them to evolve and self-organize in order to, holistically, fulfil the requirements from different stakeholders and thus thrive by assuring the successful sustainability of a company. Based on the revision of literature carried out, this is the first time that IMSs are pointed out as CASs which may develop fruitful synergies both for the MSs and for CASs communities. By performing a thorough revision of literature and based on some concepts embedded in the “DNA” of the subsystems implementation standards it is intended, specifically, to identify, determine and discuss the properties of a generic IMS that should be considered to classify it as a CAS.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

Exploração de séries temporais em processos de previsão de vendas

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas

Assessment of distinctive road runoff quality in coastal areas, based on a monitoring case study

High levels of marine salt deposition present in coastal areas have a relevant effect on road runoff characteristics. This study assesses this effect with the purpose of identifying the relationships between monitored water quality parameters and intrinsic site variables. To achieve this objective, an extensive monitoring program was conducted on a Portuguese coastal highway. The study included 30 rainfall events, in different weather, traffic, and salt deposition conditions. The evaluations of various water quality parameters were carried out in over 200 samples. In addition, the meteorological, hydrological, and traffic parameters were continuously measured. The salt deposition rates were determined by means of a wet candle device, which is an innovative feature of the monitoring program. The relation between road runoff pollutants and independent variables associated with weather, traffic, and salt deposition conditions was assessed. Significant correlations among pollutants were observed. A high salinity concentration and its influence on the road runoff were confirmed. Furthermore, the concentrations of the most relevant pollutants seemed to be very dependent on some meteorological variables, particularly the duration of the antecedent dry period prior to each rainfall event and the average wind speed.

Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: evidence from emerging markets

We test the predictive ability of the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labour income, cay, for both future equity and housing risk premia in emerging market economies. Using quarterly data for 31 markets, our country-level evidence shows that forecasting power of cay vis-à-vis stock returns is high for Brazil, China, Colombia, Israel, Korea, Latvia and Malaysia. As for housing returns, the empirical evidence suggests that financial and housing assets are perceived as complements in the case of Chile, Russia, South Africa and Thailand, and as substitutes in Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Taiwan. Using a panel econometric framework, we find that the cross-country heterogeneity observed in asset return predictability does not accrue to regional location, but can be attributed to differences in the degree of equity market development and in the level of income.

Exploração de dados para soluções de retalho em business intelligence

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia de Gestão e Sistemas de Informação

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

Optimização do processo de recolha de resíduos: desenvolvimento de ferramentas de investigação operacional para o problema de orientação de equipas com multi-restrições

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas.