Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Looking for mechanisms regulating lung growth in CDH: rat and human studies

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Saúde

Can the dopaminergic-related effects of general anesthetics be linked to mechanisms involved in drug abuse and addiction?

BACKGROUND: General anesthetics (GA) are well known for the ability to induce a state of reversible loss of consciousness and unresponsiveness to painful stimuli. However, evidence from animal models and clinical studies show that GA exposure may induce behavioral changes beyond acute effects. Most research and concerns are focused on changes in cognition and memory. METHODS: We will look at effects of GA on behavior that is mediated by the dopaminergic system. RESULTS: Pharmacological resemblance of GA with drugs of abuse, and the complexity and importance of dopaminergic systems in both reward seeking and addictive illnesses make us believe that it deserves an overview about what is already known and what matters to us as healthcare workers and specifically as anesthesiologists. CONCLUSION: A review of available evidence strongly suggests that there may be a link between the effects of GA on the brain and substance abuse, partly explained by their influence on the dopaminergic system.

Genetic regulatory mechanisms by means of extended interactive Petri nets

In our work we have chosen to integrate formalism for knowledge representation with formalism for process representation as a way to specify and regulate the overall activity of a multi-cellular agent. The result of this approach is XP,N, another formalism, wherein a distributed system can be modeled as a collection of interrelated sub-nets sharing a common explicit control structure. Each sub-net represents a system of asynchronous concurrent threads modeled by a set of transitions. XP,N combines local state and control with interaction and hierarchy to achieve a high-level abstraction and to model the complex relationships between all the components of a distributed system. Viewed as a tool XP,N provides a carefully devised conflict resolution strategy that intentionally mimics the genetic regulatory mechanism used in an organic cell to select the next genes to process.