Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Development of a new 3D OpenFOAM® solver to model the cooling stage in profile extrusion

[Excerpt] The advantages resulting from the use of numerical modelling tools to support the design of processing equipment are almost consensual. The design of calibration systems in profile extrusion is not an exception . H owever , the complex geome tries and heat exchange phenomena involved in this process require the use of numerical solvers able to model the heat exchange in more than one domain ( calibrator and polymer), the compatibilization of the heat transfer at the profile - calibrator interface and with the ability to deal with complex geometries. The combination of all these features is usually hard to find in commercial software. Moreover , the dimension of the meshes required to ob tain accurate results, result in computational times prohibitive for industrial application. (...)

Development of a model for occupational risk acceptance criteria definition in industrial settings

Doctoral Dissertation for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering

Modelação, simulação e implementação de agitação acústica para aplicações em microfluídica

Tese de Doutoramento (Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Biomédica)

BIOMedical search engine framework: lightweight and customized implementation of domain-specific biomedical search engines

The Smart Drug Search is publicly accessible at http://sing.ei.uvigo.es/sds/. The BIOMedical Search Engine Framework is freely available for non-commercial use at https://github.com/agjacome/biomsef

O uso de Charges como instrumento para identificação de concepções individuais e representações sociais sobre a Dengue

A dengue é hoje uma das doenças com maior incidência no Brasil, com especial frequência no município de Fênix –Paraná. No presente estudo pretendeu-se analisar as concepções que as crianças têm sobre a dengue, identificando os componentes do modelo KVP, bem como conhecer as representações sociais deste grupo. Para o efeito optou-se pela utilização de charges com alunos do 5º ano do ensino fundamental de uma escola localizada no município de Fênix, cujos textos foram analisados para identificação de categorias e dos componentes do modelo KVP (conhecimentos, valores e práticas) a elas associadas. Foram identificadas quatro categorias de respostas sobre a interpretação da charge relativa à dengue: (i) prevenção da dengue, (ii) perigoso que pode levar à morte, (iii) problema de saúde pública e (iv) combater a dengue. Verificou-se que a “prevenção da dengue” foi a categoria em que se identificaram os três domínios K, V e P implicados na construção das concepções, enquanto as duas categorias “perigoso que pode levar à morte” e “problema de saúde pública” apresentaram apenas os domínios K e V, e a categoria “combater a dengue” apenas evidenciou o domínio V. Os resultados do estudo mostraram que os alunos já veem a dengue como um problema com consequências sérias e que todos têm sua responsabilidade no controle da doença. Percebe-se, portanto, que todo o trabalho que vem sendo realizado pela secretaria de saúde, pelas escolas ou campanhas publicitárias esta surtindo efeito, uma vez que no ano de 2014 houve uma redução do número de casos no município foco da pesquisa.

Experimental validation of a proposed single-phase five-level active rectifier operating with model predictive current control

This paper presents a model predictive current control applied to a proposed single-phase five-level active rectifier (FLAR). This current control strategy uses the discrete-time nature of the active rectifier to define its state in each sampling interval. Although the switching frequency is not constant, this current control strategy allows to follow the reference with low total harmonic distortion (THDF). The implementation of the active rectifier that was used to obtain the experimental results is described in detail along the paper, presenting the circuit topology, the principle of operation, the power theory, and the current control strategy. The experimental results confirm the robustness and good performance (with low current THDF and controlled output voltage) of the proposed single-phase FLAR operating with model predictive current control.