Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental data

Programa Doutoral em Matemática e Aplicações.

A spatial multicriteria model for urban accessibility mapping

Accessibility is nowadays an important issue for the development of cities. It is seen as a priority in order toguarantee equal access to fundamental rights, to improve the quality of life of citizens and to ensure that everyone, regardless of age, mobility or ability, have equal access to all the resources and benefits cities have to offer. Consequently, factors closely related to the accessibility have gained a higher relevance for identifying and assessing the location of urban facilities. The main goal of the paper is to present an accessibility evaluation model applied in Santarém, in Brazil, a city located midway between the larger cities of Belem and Manaus. The research instruments, sampling method and data analysis proposed for mapping urban accessibility are described. Daily activities were used to identify and group key destinations. The model was implemented within a geographic information system and integrates the individualâ s perspective through the definition of each key destination weight, reflecting their significance for daily activities in the urban area. Accessibility to key destinations was mapped over 24 districts of the city of Santarém. The results of this model application can support city administration decision-making for new investments in order to improve urban quality of life.

Spatial-temporal modellization of the NO2 concentration data through geostatistical tools

The nitrogen dioxide is a primary pollutant, regarded for the estimation of the air quality index, whose excessive presence may cause significant environmental and health problems. In the current work, we suggest characterizing the evolution of NO2 levels, by using geostatisti- cal approaches that deal with both the space and time coordinates. To develop our proposal, a first exploratory analysis was carried out on daily values of the target variable, daily measured in Portugal from 2004 to 2012, which led to identify three influential covariates (type of site, environment and month of measurement). In a second step, appropriate geostatistical tools were applied to model the trend and the space-time variability, thus enabling us to use the kriging techniques for prediction, without requiring data from a dense monitoring network. This method- ology has valuable applications, as it can provide accurate assessment of the nitrogen dioxide concentrations at sites where either data have been lost or there is no monitoring station nearby.

Analysis of a Local HIV-1 Epidemic in Portugal Highlights Established Transmission of non-B and -G Subtypes

Existing data supports Portugal as the Western Europe country with highest HIV-1 subtype diversity. However, detailed phylogenetic studies of Portuguese HIV-1 epidemics are still scarce. Thus, our main goal was to analyze the phylodynamics of a local HIV-1 infection in the Portuguese region of Minho. Molecular epidemiological analysis was applied to data from 289 HIV-1 infected individuals followed in the reference Hospital of the province of Minho, Portugal, in which isolated viruses had been sequenced between 2000 and 2012. Viruses of the G (29.1%) and B (27.0%) subtypes were the most frequent, followed by recombinant forms (17.6%), C (14.5%), F1 (7.3%) and A1 (4.2%) subtypes. Multinomial logistic regression revealed that the odds of being infected with A1 and F1 subtype increased over the years when compared with B, G, C or recombinant viruses. As expected, polyphyletic patterns suggesting multiple and old introductions of subtypes B and G were found. However, transmission clusters of non-B and -G viruses among native individuals were also found with the dates of the most recent common ancestor estimated to the early 2000s. Our study supports that the HIV-1 subtype diversity in the Portuguese region of Minho is high and has been increasing in a manner that is apparently driven by factors other than immigration and international travel. Infections with A1 and F1 viruses in the region of Minho are becoming established and were mainly found in sexually transmitted clusters, reinforcing the need for more efficacious control measures targeting this infection route.