Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

The effect of high-fat diet on rat’s mood, feeding behavior and response to stress

An association between obesity and depression has been indicated in studies addressing common physical (metabolic) and psychological (anxiety, low self-esteem) outcomes. Of consideration in both obesity and depression are chronic mild stressors to which individuals are exposed to on a daily basis. However, the response to stress is remarkably variable depending on numerous factors, such as the physical health and the mental state at the time of exposure. Here a chronic mild stress (CMS) protocol was used to assess the effect of high-fat diet (HFD)-induced obesity on response to stress in a rat model. In addition to the development of metabolic complications, such as glucose intolerance, diet-induced obesity caused behavioral alterations. Specifically, animals fed on HFD displayed depressive- and anxious-like behaviors that were only present in the normal diet (ND) group upon exposure to CMS. Of notice, these mood impairments were not further aggravated when the HFD animals were exposed to CMS, which suggest a ceiling effect. Moreover, although there was a sudden drop of food consumption in the first 3 weeks of the CMS protocol in both ND and HFD groups, only the CMS-HFD displayed an overall noticeable decrease in total food intake during the 6 weeks of the CMS protocol. Altogether, the study suggests that HFD impacts on the response to CMS, which should be considered when addressing the consequences of obesity in behavior.