Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Desenvolvimento de estruturas fibrosas com comportamento auxético

Tese de Doutoramento Engenharia Têxtil

Measurement of the forward-backward asymmetry of electron and muon pair-production in pp collisions at s√ = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements from the ATLAS experiment of the forward-backward asymmetry in the reaction pp→Z/γ∗→l+l−, with l being electrons or muons, and the extraction of the effective weak mixing angle. The results are based on the full set of data collected in 2011 in pp collisions at the LHC at s√ = 7 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.8 fb−1. The measured asymmetry values are found to be in agreement with the corresponding Standard Model predictions. The combination of the muon and electron channels yields a value of the effective weak mixing angle of 0.2308±0.0005(stat.)±0.0006(syst.)±0.0009(PDF), where the first uncertainty corresponds to data statistics, the second to systematic effects and the third to knowledge of the parton density functions. This result agrees with the current world average from the Particle Data Group fit.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

“Learning-by-producing” in the fashion value chain

Proceedings da AUTEX 2015, Bucareste, Roménia.

Goblet cell density association with tear function and ocular surface physiology

Purpose: To determine the relationship of goblet cell density (GCD) with tear function and ocular surface physiology. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 35 asymptomatic subjects with mean age 23.8±3.6 years. Tear film assessment, conjunctiva and cornea examination were done in each subject. Conjunctival impression cytology was performed by applying Nitrocellulose Millipore MFTM-Membrane filter over the superior bulbar conjunctiva. The filter paper was than fixed with 96% ethanol and stained with Periodic Acid Schiff, Hematoxylin and Eosin. GCD was determined by optical microscopy. Relation between GCD and Schirmer score, tear break-up time (TBUT), bulbar redness, limbal redness and corneal staining was determined. Results: The mean GCD was 151±122 cells/mm2. GCD was found higher in eyes with higher Schirmer score but it was not significant (p = 0.75). There was a significant relationship ofGCDwith TBUT (p = 0.042). GCD was not correlated with bulbar redness (p = 0.126), and limbal redness (p = 0.054) as well as corneal staining (p = 0.079). No relationship of GCD with age and gender of the subjects (p > 0.05) was observed. Conclusion: GCD was found correlated with TBUT but no significant correlation was found with the aqueous portion of the tear, limbal as well as bulbar redness and corneal staining.

Vanishing spin stiffness in the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain for any nonzero temperature

Whether at the zero spin density m = 0 and finite temperatures T > 0 the spin stiffness of the spin-1/2 XXX chain is finite or vanishes remains an unsolved and controversial issue, as different approaches yield contradictory results. Here we explicitly compute the stiffness at m = 0 and find strong evidence that it vanishes. In particular, we derive an upper bound on the stiffness within a canonical ensemble at any fixed value of spin density m that is proportional to m2L in the thermodynamic limit of chain length L → ∞, for any finite, nonzero temperature, which implies the absence of ballistic transport for T > 0 for m = 0. Although our method relies in part on the thermodynamic Bethe ansatz (TBA), it does not evaluate the stiffness through the second derivative of the TBA energy eigenvalues relative to a uniform vector potential. Moreover, we provide strong evidence that in the thermodynamic limit the upper bounds on the spin current and stiffness used in our derivation remain valid under string deviations. Our results also provide strong evidence that in the thermodynamic limit the TBA method used by X. Zotos [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 1764 (1999)] leads to the exact stiffness values at finite temperature T > 0 for models whose stiffness is finite at T = 0, similar to the spin stiffness of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain but unlike the charge stiffness of the half-filled 1D Hubbard model.

Effect of argon ion energy on the performance of silicon nitridemultilayer permeation barriers grown by hot-wire CVD on polymers

One of the authors (S.M.) acknowledges Direction des Relations Extérieures of Ecole Polytechnique for financial support.

Nutritional value, bioactive compounds and antioxidant properties of three edible mushrooms from Poland

Mushrooms contain a multitude of biomolecules with nutritional and/or biological activity. Among the bioactive molecules, phenolic compounds and tocopherols are the most responsible for their antioxidant activity. In the present work, Boletus edulis, Lentinus edodes and Xerocomus badius, three edible mushroom species originated from Poland, were analyzed for their chemical composition and antioxidant activity. Carbohydrates were the most abundant macronutrients, followed by proteins and ash. Fructose, mannitol and trehalose were the prevalent sugars, but glucose was only found in B. edulis. Polyunsaturated fatty acids predominated over mono and saturated fatty acids. Palmitic, oleic and linoleic acids were abundant in the three samples. α- and β- Tocopherols were quantified in all the samples, but γ-tocopherol was only identified in X. badius. Oxalic and fumaric acids were quantified in the three samples; quinic acid was only present in L. edodes, and malic and citric acids were only found in X. badius. p-Hydroxybenzoic, protocatechuic and cinnamic acids were quantified in all the species, while p-coumaric acid was only found in B. edulis. This species and X. badius revealed the highest antioxidant properties, being B. edulis more effective in radicals scavenging activity and reducing power, and X. badius in lipid peroxidation inhibition, which is related with the highest amounts in phenolic compounds and tocopherols, respectively.

Regulation of human mesenchymal stem cell osteogenesis by specific surface density of fibronectin: a gradient study

 The success of synthetic bone implants requires good interface between the material and the host tissue. To study the biological relevance of fi bronectin (FN) density on the osteogenic commitment of human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (hBMMSCs), human FN was adsorbed in a linear density gradient on the surface of PCL. The evolution of the osteogenic markers alkaline phosphatase and collagen 1 alpha 1 was monitored by immunohistochemistry, and the cytoskeletal organization and the cell-derived FN were assessed. The functional analysis of the gradient revealed that the lower FN-density elicited stronger osteogenic expression and higher cytoskeleton spreading, hallmarks of the stem cell commitment to the osteoblastic lineage. The identifi cation of the optimal FN density regime for the osteogenic commitment of hBM-MSCs presents a simple and versatile strategy to signifi cantly enhance the surface properties of polycaprolactone as a paradigm for other synthetic polymers intended for bone-related applications.

Sustainability assessment of envelope wall solutions using MAXergy methodology

Projeto de investigação integrado de International Master in Sustainable Built Environment

Lewis Score - Prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel Crohn's disease

Background and aims: Small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) allows mapping of small bowel inflammation in Crohn’s disease (CD). We aimed to assess the prognostic value of the severity of inflammatory lesions, quantified by the Lewis score (LS), in patients with isolated small bowel CD. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in which 53 patients with isolated small bowel CD were submitted to SBCE at the time of diagnosis. The Lewis score was calculated and patients had at least 12 months of follow-up after diagnosis. As adverse events we defined disease flare requiring systemic corticosteroid therapy, hospitalization and/or surgery during follow-up. We compared the incidence of adverse events in 2 patient subgroups, i.e. those with moderate or severe inflammatory activity (LS =790) and those with mild inflammatory activity (135 = LS < 790). Results: The LS was =790 in 22 patients (41.5%), while 58.5% presented with LS between 135 and 790. Patients with a higher LS were more frequently smokers (p = 0.01), males (p = 0017) and under immunosuppressive therapy (p = 0.004). In multivariate analysis, moderate to severe disease at SBCE was independently associated with corticosteroid therapy during follow-up, with a relative risk (RR) of 5 (p = 0.011; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5–17.8), and for hospitalization, with an RR of 13.7 (p = 0 .028; 95% CI 1.3–141.9). Conclusion: In patients with moderate to severe inflammatory activity there were higher prevalences of corticosteroid therapy demand and hospitalization during follow-up. Thus, stratifying the degree of small bowel inflammatory activity with SBCE and LS calculation at the time of diagnosis provided relevant prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel CD.

A importância dos espaços verdes para a promoção de Guimarães a capital verde da Europa

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Geografia (área de especialização em Planeamento e Gestão do Território)

Exploitation of Ashbya gossypii for the production of high-value products from glycerol feedstocks

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioengenharia