A bayesian approach for NDT data fusion: The Saint Torcato Church case study

This paper presents a methodology based on the Bayesian data fusion techniques applied to non-destructive and destructive tests for the structural assessment of historical constructions. The aim of the methodology is to reduce the uncertainties of the parameter estimation. The Young's modulus of granite stones was chosen as an example for the present paper. The methodology considers several levels of uncertainty since the parameters of interest are considered random variables with random moments. A new concept of Trust Factor was introduced to affect the uncertainty related to each test results, translated by their standard deviation, depending on the higher or lower reliability of each test to predict a certain parameter.

Jet energy measurement and its systematic uncertainty in proton-proton collisions at s√=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The jet energy scale (JES) and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of s√=7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb −1 . Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells using the anti- kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0.4 or R=0.6 , and are calibrated using MC simulations. A residual JES correction is applied to account for differences between data and MC simulations. This correction and its systematic uncertainty are estimated using a combination of in situ techniques exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference object such as a photon or a Z boson, for 20≤pjetT<1000 GeV and pseudorapidities |η|<4.5 . The effect of multiple proton–proton interactions is corrected for, and an uncertainty is evaluated using in situ techniques. The smallest JES uncertainty of less than 1 % is found in the central calorimeter region ( |η|<1.2 ) for jets with 55≤pjetT<500 GeV . For central jets at lower pT , the uncertainty is about 3 %. A consistent JES estimate is found using measurements of the calorimeter response of single hadrons in proton–proton collisions and test-beam data, which also provide the estimate for pjetT>1 TeV. The calibration of forward jets is derived from dijet pT balance measurements. The resulting uncertainty reaches its largest value of 6 % for low- pT jets at |η|=4.5 . Additional JES uncertainties due to specific event topologies, such as close-by jets or selections of event samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks or gluons, are also discussed. The magnitude of these uncertainties depends on the event sample used in a given physics analysis, but typically amounts to 0.5–3 %.

Measurement of the top-quark mass in the fully hadronic decay channel from ATLAS data at s√=7 TeV

The mass of the top quark is measured in a data set corresponding to 4.6 fb−1 of proton--proton collisions with centre-of-mass energy s√=7 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events consistent with hadronic decays of top--antitop quark pairs with at least six jets in the final state are selected. The substantial background from multijet production is modelled with data-driven methods that utilise the number of identified b-quark jets and the transverse momentum of the sixth leading jet, which have minimal correlation. The top-quark mass is obtained from template fits to the ratio of three-jet to dijet mass. The three-jet mass is calculated from the three jets of a top-quark decay. Using these three jets the dijet mass is obtained from the two jets of the W boson decay. The top-quark mass obtained from this fit is thus less sensitive to the uncertainty in the energy measurement of the jets. A binned likelihood fit yields a top-quark mass of mt = 175.1 ± 1.4 (stat.) ± 1.2 (syst.) GeV.

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

A data-driven analytics approach in the study of pneumonia’s fatalities

As huge amounts of data become available in organizations and society, specific data analytics skills and techniques are needed to explore this data and extract from it useful patterns, tendencies, models or other useful knowledge, which could be used to support the decision-making process, to define new strategies or to understand what is happening in a specific field. Only with a deep understanding of a phenomenon it is possible to fight it. In this paper, a data-driven analytics approach is used for the analysis of the increasing incidence of fatalities by pneumonia in the Portuguese population, characterizing the disease and its incidence in terms of fatalities, knowledge that can be used to define appropriate strategies that can aim to reduce this phenomenon, which has increased more than 65% in a decade.

Fatores de sucesso e dificuldades das spin-offs empresariais: o caso das agências de mediação de seguros

Dissertação de mestrado em Marketing e Estratégia

Using data mining for prediction of hospital length of stay: an application of the CRISP-DM Methodology

Hospitals are nowadays collecting vast amounts of data related with patient records. All this data hold valuable knowledge that can be used to improve hospital decision making. Data mining techniques aim precisely at the extraction of useful knowledge from raw data. This work describes an implementation of a medical data mining project approach based on the CRISP-DM methodology. Recent real-world data, from 2000 to 2013, were collected from a Portuguese hospital and related with inpatient hospitalization. The goal was to predict generic hospital Length Of Stay based on indicators that are commonly available at the hospitalization process (e.g., gender, age, episode type, medical specialty). At the data preparation stage, the data were cleaned and variables were selected and transformed, leading to 14 inputs. Next, at the modeling stage, a regression approach was adopted, where six learning methods were compared: Average Prediction, Multiple Regression, Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network ensemble, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The best learning model was obtained by the Random Forest method, which presents a high quality coefficient of determination value (0.81). This model was then opened by using a sensitivity analysis procedure that revealed three influential input attributes: the hospital episode type, the physical service where the patient is hospitalized and the associated medical specialty. Such extracted knowledge confirmed that the obtained predictive model is credible and with potential value for supporting decisions of hospital managers.

Integrated management systems as complex adaptive systems

It is a difficult task to avoid the “smart systems” topic when discussing smart prevention and, similarly, it is a difficult task to address smart systems without focusing their ability to learn. Following the same line of thought, in the current reality, it seems a Herculean task (or an irreparable omission) to approach the topic of certified occupational health and safety management systems (OHSMS) without discussing the integrated management systems (IMSs). The available data suggest that seldom are the OHSMS operating as the single management system (MS) in a company so, any statement concerning OHSMS should mainly be interpreted from an integrated perspective. A major distinction between generic systems can be drawn between those that learn, i.e., those systems that have “memory” and those that have not. These former systems are often depicted as adaptive since they take into account past events to deal with novel, similar and future events modifying their structure to enable success in its environment. Often, these systems, present a nonlinear behavior and a huge uncertainty related to the forecasting of some events. This paper seeks to portray, for the first time as we were able to find out, the IMSs as complex adaptive systems (CASs) by listing their properties and dissecting the features that enable them to evolve and self-organize in order to, holistically, fulfil the requirements from different stakeholders and thus thrive by assuring the successful sustainability of a company. Based on the revision of literature carried out, this is the first time that IMSs are pointed out as CASs which may develop fruitful synergies both for the MSs and for CASs communities. By performing a thorough revision of literature and based on some concepts embedded in the “DNA” of the subsystems implementation standards it is intended, specifically, to identify, determine and discuss the properties of a generic IMS that should be considered to classify it as a CAS.

Combining data mining and evolutionary computation for multi-criteria optimization of earthworks

Earthworks tasks aim at levelling the ground surface at a target construction area and precede any kind of structural construction (e.g., road and railway construction). It is comprised of sequential tasks, such as excavation, transportation, spreading and compaction, and it is strongly based on heavy mechanical equipment and repetitive processes. Under this context, it is essential to optimize the usage of all available resources under two key criteria: the costs and duration of earthwork projects. In this paper, we present an integrated system that uses two artificial intelligence based techniques: data mining and evolutionary multi-objective optimization. The former is used to build data-driven models capable of providing realistic estimates of resource productivity, while the latter is used to optimize resource allocation considering the two main earthwork objectives (duration and cost). Experiments held using real-world data, from a construction site, have shown that the proposed system is competitive when compared with current manual earthwork design.

From a NoSQL data source to a business intelligence solution: An experiment

We are living in the era of Big Data. A time which is characterized by the continuous creation of vast amounts of data, originated from different sources, and with different formats. First, with the rise of the social networks and, more recently, with the advent of the Internet of Things (IoT), in which everyone and (eventually) everything is linked to the Internet, data with enormous potential for organizations is being continuously generated. In order to be more competitive, organizations want to access and explore all the richness that is present in those data. Indeed, Big Data is only as valuable as the insights organizations gather from it to make better decisions, which is the main goal of Business Intelligence. In this paper we describe an experiment in which data obtained from a NoSQL data source (database technology explicitly developed to deal with the specificities of Big Data) is used to feed a Business Intelligence solution.

A geographic opportunistic forwarding strategy for vehicular named data networking

Studies in Computational Intelligence, 616

A domain-specific language for ETL patterns specification in Data Warehousing Systems

During the last few years many research efforts have been done to improve the design of ETL (Extract-Transform-Load) systems. ETL systems are considered very time-consuming, error-prone and complex involving several participants from different knowledge domains. ETL processes are one of the most important components of a data warehousing system that are strongly influenced by the complexity of business requirements, their changing and evolution. These aspects influence not only the structure of a data warehouse but also the structures of the data sources involved with. To minimize the negative impact of such variables, we propose the use of ETL patterns to build specific ETL packages. In this paper, we formalize this approach using BPMN (Business Process Modelling Language) for modelling more conceptual ETL workflows, mapping them to real execution primitives through the use of a domain-specific language that allows for the generation of specific instances that can be executed in an ETL commercial tool.

Categorização do consumo de energia em sistemas de povoamento de Data Warehouses

Os recursos computacionais exigidos durante o processamento de grandes volumes de dados durante um processo de povoamento de um data warehouse faz com que a necessidade da procura de novas implementações tenha também em atenção a eficiência energética dos diversos componentes processuais que integram um qualquer sistema de povoamento. A lacuna de técnicas ou metodologias para categorizar e avaliar o consumo de energia em sistemas de povoamento de data warehouses é claramente notória. O acesso a esse tipo de informação possibilitaria a construção de sistemas de povoamento de data warehouses com níveis de consumo de energia mais baixos e, portanto, mais eficientes. Partindo da adaptação de técnicas aplicadas a sistemas de gestão de base de dados para a obtenção dos consumos energéticos da execução de interrogações, desenhámos e implementámos uma nova técnica que nos permite obter os consumos de energia para um qualquer processo de povoamento de um data warehouse, através da avaliação do consumo de cada um dos componentes utilizados na sua implementação utilizando uma ferramenta convencional. Neste artigo apresentamos a forma como fazemos tal avaliação, utilizando na demonstração da viabilidade da nossa proposta um processo de povoamento bastante típico em data warehouses – substituição encadeada de chaves operacionais -, que foi implementado através da ferramenta Kettle.

Predicting preterm birth in maternity care by means of data mining

Worldwide, around 9% of the children are born with less than 37 weeks of labour, causing risk to the premature child, whom it is not prepared to develop a number of basic functions that begin soon after the birth. In order to ensure that those risk pregnancies are being properly monitored by the obstetricians in time to avoid those problems, Data Mining (DM) models were induced in this study to predict preterm births in a real environment using data from 3376 patients (women) admitted in the maternal and perinatal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto. A sensitive metric to predict preterm deliveries was developed, assisting physicians in the decision-making process regarding the patients’ observation. It was possible to obtain promising results, achieving sensitivity and specificity values of 96% and 98%, respectively.