Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Integration of geometric consistency contributory factors in three-leg junctions collision prediction models of Portuguese two-lane national highways

This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctionsâ area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.

The economic assessment of health benefits of active transport

Purpose:This chapter addresses the economic assessment of health benefits of active transport and presents most recent valuation studies with an overview of progresses made towards the inclusion of health benefits in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of active transport. Methodology/approach: It is built upon the contracted study for the World Health Organization (WHO) on the economic appraisal of health benefits of walking and cycling investments at the city of Viana do Castelo, the former pilot study in Portugal for evaluating the health benefits of non-motorized transport using the WHO Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT). The relative risk values adopted in the HEAT for walking refer to adult population of the age group 20â 74 years and the assessment focus in on average physical activity/regular behaviour of groups of pedestrians and all-cause mortality health impacts. During the case study, it was developed and implemented a mobility survey which aimed to collect behavioural data before and after a street intervention in the historic centre. Findings: Most recent appraisal guidance of walking and cycling and health impact modelling studies reviewed confirm that further research is expected before a more comprehensive appraisal procedure can be adopted in Europe, able to integrate physical activity effects along with other health risks such as those related to road traffic injuries and exposure to air pollution. Social implications: The health benefits assessment of walking investments helped local decision-makers to progress towards sustainable mobility options in the city. Making the population aware of the potential health benefits of regular walking can encourage more people to uptake active transport as part of their daily activities. Originality/value: This study provides a useful review of the health benefits of active transport with a comprehensive analysis of valuation studies, presenting value-added information. It then reports a former assessment of the health effects of active transport in the Portuguese context (case study) using the state-of-the-art economic analysis tool (HEAT) of the World Health Organization which is believed to contribute to a paradigm shift in the transport policy and appraisal practice given the need of shaping future cities (and their citizens) for health through more investments in active transport.

Economic evaluation of occupational safety preventive measures in a hospital

BACKGROUND: When an organization performs an integrated analysis of risks through its Occupational Health and Safety Management System, several steps are suggested to address the implications of the identified risks. Namely, the organization should make a detailed analysis of the monetary impact for the organization of each of the preventive measures considered. However, it is also important to perform an analysis of the impact of each measure on society (externalities). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to present a case study related to the application of the proposed economic evaluation methodology. METHODS: An analysis of the work accidents in a hospital has been made. Three of the major types of accidents have been selected: needle stings, falls and excessive strain. Following the risk assessment, some preventive measures have been designed. Subsequently, the Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C) of these measures has been calculated, both in financial terms (from the organization’s perspective) and in economic terms (including the benefits for the worker and for the Society). RESULTS: While the financial ratio is only advantageous in some cases, when the externalities are taken into account, the B/C ratio increases significantly. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to consider external

Exploring female mice interstrain differences relevant for models of depression

Depression is an extremely heterogeneous disorder. Diverse molecular mechanisms have been suggested to underlie its etiology. To understand the molecular mechanisms responsible for this complex disorder, researchers have been using animal models extensively, namely mice from various genetic backgrounds and harboring distinct genetic modifications. The use of numerous mouse models has contributed to enrich our knowledge on depression. However, accumulating data also revealed that the intrinsic characteristics of each mouse strain might influence the experimental outcomes, which may justify some conflicting evidence reported in the literature. To further understand the impact of the genetic background, we performed a multimodal comparative study encompassing the most relevant parameters commonly addressed in depression, in three of the most widely used mouse strains: Balb/c, C57BL/6, and CD-1. Moreover, female mice were selected for this study taken into account the higher prevalence of depression in women and the fewer animal studies using this gender. Our results show that Balb/c mice have a more pronounced anxious-like behavior than CD-1 and C57BL/6 mice, whereas C57BL/6 animals present the strongest depressive-like trait. Furthermore, C57BL/6 mice display the highest rate of proliferating cells and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (Bdnf) expression levels in the hippocampus, while hippocampal dentate granular neurons of Balb/c mice show smaller dendritic lengths and fewer ramifications. Of notice, the expression levels of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNos) predict 39.5% of the depressive-like behavior index, which suggests a key role of hippocampal iNOS in depression. Overall, this study reveals important interstrain differences in several behavioral dimensions and molecular and cellular parameters that should be considered when preparing and analyzing experiments addressing depression using mouse models. It further contributes to the literature by revealing the predictive value of hippocampal iNos expression levels in depressive-like behavior, irrespectively of the mouse strain.

Cylindrically symmetric models of gravitational collapse to black holes: a short review

We survey results about exact cylindrically symmetric models of gravitational collapse in General Relativity. We focus on models which result from the matching of two spacetimes having collapsing interiors which develop trapped surfaces and vacuum exteriors containing gravitational waves. We collect some theorems from the literature which help to decide a priori about eventual spacetime matchings. We revise, in more detail, some toy models which include some of the main mathematical and physical issues that arise in this context, and compute the gravitational energy flux through the matching boundary of a particular collapsing region. Along the way, we point out several interesting open problems.

The state of art of biological processes in paternal care

This review of the state of art aimed to present the most recent data on neuronal, neurochemical, hormonal and genetic bases of paternal care using MEDLINE and PsycInfo databases (1970-2013). An integrated model of biological substrates that assist men in the transition to fatherhood is presented. Guided by a genetic background, hypothalamic-midbrain-limbic-paralimbic-cortical circuits were found to be activated in fathers when infant stimuli are presented. A set of specifi c neuropeptides and steroid hormones are produced and seem to be related to brain activation, potentiating the paternal phenotype. Together, genetic, brain and hormonal processes suggest the existence of biological bases of paternal care in humans, activated and enhanced by infant stimuli and responsive to variations in the father-infant relationship.

The real economic effects of cross-delistingfrom the united states: evidence on post-operating performance, financial constraints and stock crash risk

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Empresariais.