Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Assessment of overlay masonry strengthening system under in-plane monotonic and cyclic loading using the diagonal tensile test

The development of novel strengthening techniques to address the seismic vulnerability of masonry elements is gradually leading to simpler, faster and more effective strengthening strategies. In particular, the use of fabric reinforced cementitious matrix systems is considered of great potential, given the increase of ductility achieved with simple and economic strengthening procedures. To assess the effectiveness of these strengthening systems, and considering that the seismic action is involved, one important component of the structural behaviour is the in-plane cyclic response. In this work is discussed the applicability of the diagonal tensile test for the assessment of the cyclic response of strengthened masonry. The results obtained allowed to assess the contribution of the strengthening system to the increase of the load carrying capacity of masonry elements, as well as to evaluate the damage evolution and the stiffness degradation mechanisms developing under cyclic loading.

Experimental analysis of the cyclic response of traditional timber joints and their influence on the seismic capacity of timber frame structures

Timber connections represent the crucial part of a timber structure and a great variability exists in terms of types of connections and mechanisms. Taking as case study the widespread traditional timber frame structures, in particular the Portuguese Pombalino buildings, one of the most common timber connection is the half-lap joint. Connections play a major role in the overall behaviour of a structure, particularly when assessing their seismic response, since damage is concentrated at the connections. For this reason, an experimental campaign was designed and distinct types of tests were carried out on traditional half-lap joints to assess their in-plane response. In particular, pull-out and in-plane cyclic tests were carried out on real scale unreinforced connections. Subsequently, the connections were retrofitted, using strengthening techniques such as self-tapping screws, steel plates and GFRP sheets. The tests chosen were meant to capture the hysteretic behaviour and dissipative capacity of the connections and characterise their response and, therefore, their influence on the seismic response of timber frame walls, particularly concerning their uplifting and rotation capacity, that could lead to rocking in the walls. In this paper, the results of the experimental campaign are presented in terms of hysteretic curves, dissipated energy and equivalent viscous damping ratio. Moreover, recommendations are provided on the most appropriate retrofitting solutions.

Effect of ionic liquid anion and cation on the physico-chemical properties of poly(vinylidene fluoride)/ionic liquid blends

Poly(vinylidene fluoride), PVDF, has been blended with different ionic liquids (IL) in order to evaluate the effect of the different IL anions and cations on the electroative -phase, thermal, mechanical and electrical properties of the polymer blend. [C2MIM][Cl], [C6MIM][Cl], [C10MIM][Cl], [C2MIM][NTf2], [C6MIM][NTf2], [C10MIM][NTf2] have been selected and were introduced in the polymer at a weight percentage of 40 wt%. It was found that the incorporation of ILs into the PVDF matrix leads to an increase of the -phase content due to the strong electrostatic interactions between the dipolar moments of PVDF and the ILs. Further, the incorporation of ILs into PVDF strongly decreases the elastic modulus and increases the electrical conductivity of the blend with respect to the pure polymer matrix, all these effects being accompanied by a modification of the crystallization kinetics, as indicated by the modified spherulitic microstructure. Thus, novel PVDF/IL blends films with high transparency, excellent antistatic properties, and highly polar crystal form fraction were successfully achieved.

Measurements of the Total and Differential Higgs Boson Production Cross Sections Combining the H→γγ and H→ZZ∗→4ℓ Decay Channels at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

Measurements of the total and differential cross sections of Higgs boson production are performed using 20.3 fb−1 of pp collisions produced by the Large Hadron Collider at a center-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV and recorded by the ATLAS detector. Cross sections are obtained from measured H→γγ and H→ZZ∗→4ℓ event yields, which are combined accounting for detector efficiencies, fiducial acceptances and branching fractions. Differential cross sections are reported as a function of Higgs boson transverse momentum, Higgs boson rapidity, number of jets in the event, and transverse momentum of the leading jet. The total production cross section is determined to be σpp→H=33.0±5.3(stat)±1.6(sys)pb. The measurements are compared to state-of-the-art predictions.

Measurements of the top quark branching ratios into channels with leptons and quarks with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the inclusive cross section for top quark pair production in pp collisions using events with an isolated lepton (muon or electron) and a τ lepton decaying to hadrons (τhad) is reported. Measurements of the branching ratios of top quark decays into leptons and jets using events with tt¯ (top antitop) pairs are also reported. Events were recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. The collected data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. The inclusive cross section measured using events with an isolated lepton and a τhad is σtt¯=183±9(stat.)±23(syst.)±3(lumi.)pb. The measured top quark branching ratios agree with the Standard Model predictions within the measurement uncertainties of a few percent.

Searches for Higgs boson pair production in the hh→bbττ,γγWW∗,γγbb,bbbb channels with the ATLAS detector

Searches for both resonant and non-resonant Higgs boson pair production are performed in the hh→bbττ,γγWW∗ final states using 20.3 fb−1 of pp collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No evidence of their production is observed and 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross sections are set. These results are then combined with the published results of the hh→γγbb,bbbb analyses. An upper limit of 0.69 (0.47) pb on the non-resonant Standard Model like hh production is observed (expected), corresponding to 70 (48) times of the SM gg→hh cross section. For production via narrow resonances, cross section limits of hh production from a heavy Higgs boson decay are set as a function of the heavy Higgs boson mass. The observed (expected) limits range from 2.1 (1.1) pb at 260 GeV to 0.011 (0.018) pb at 1000 GeV. These results are interpreted in the context of two simplified scenarios of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model.

Deep infiltrating endometriosis of the colon causing cyclic bleeding

[Description] Endometriosis, the presence of functional endometrial tissue outside the uterus, occurs in about 3–10% of women of reproductive age and is a cause of chronic pelvic pain and infertility for some.1 Bowel involvement may be present in about 5–10% of these women, mostly affecting the rectum and distal sigmoid (over 80% of cases), and, more infrequently, the appendix, ileum and caecum. The most common lesions involve only the serosa (endometriotic implants) but they can penetrate the muscular layers of the wall, in which case they are called deep infiltrating endometriosis. (...)