Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Carbonation front progress in mortars containing fly ash considering the presence of chloride ions

The incorporation of fly ash (FA) in cementitious matrices have been frequently used in order to make the matrix more resistant to the action of chlorides. On the other hand, it is known that Ca (OH)2 existing in the matrix is partially consumed by the pozzolanic reactions, which facilitates the advancement of carbonation. Given that the combined action between carbonation and chloride penetration is a fact little known, we speculate about the behaviour of the matrix in this context. This study investigates the influence of the presence of chlorides on the carbonation in mortars with FA. Samples with 0% and 40% replacement of cement CEM I 42.5 R for FA were molded with water/binder 0.56 and 0.52 respectively. After 90 days of curing the specimens were subjected to cycles of immersion/drying for 56 days. Half of the samples was subjected to the following cycle: two days in a solution containing NaCl (concentration equal to 3.5 %); 12 days in the carbonation chamber (4% of CO2). The other half was: two days in water; 12 days in the carbonation chamber. Then, the development of carbonation was evaluated. The results indicate that the presence of chlorides influences the carbonation. The specimens submitted to the exclusive action of CO2 showed a greater depth of carbonation compared to that presented by the specimens subjected to combined action. This may be related to changes in properties of the matrix which may lead to further refinement of the pores and related to the presence of the salt that can lead to partial filling of the pores and the increase in moisture content.

Carbon materials as new generation of new electron shuttles for the anaerobic degradation of environmental xenobiotics

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Química e Biológica

Desenvolvendo aprendizagens integradas

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Educação Pré-Escolar

A evolução das ideias dos alunos do 1º e 2º CEB sobre temas do meio físico com recurso a atividades do tipo laboratoriais

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino do 1.º e 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Poly(vinylidene fluoride-co-chlorotrifluoroethylene) (PVDF-CTFE) lithium-ion battery separator membranes prepared by phase inversion

Separator membranes based on poly(vinylidene fluoride-co-chlorotrifluoroethylene) (PVDF-CTFE) were prepared by solvent casting technique based on its phase diagram in N,Ndimethylformamide (DMF) solvent. The microstructure of the PVDF-CTFE separator membranes depends on the initial position (temperature and concentration) of the solution in the phase diagram of the PVDF-CTFE/DMF system. A porous microstructure is achieved for PVDF-CTFE membranes with solvent evaporation temperature up to 50 ºC for a polymer/solvent relative concentration of 20 wt%. The ionic conductivity of the separator depends on the degree of porosity and electrolyte uptake, the highest room temperature value being 1.5 mS.cm-1 for the sample with 20 wt% of polymer concentration and solvent evaporation temperature at 25 ºC saturated with 1 mol L-1 lithium bis (trifluoromethanesulfonyl) imide (LiTFSI) in propylene carbonate (PC). This PVDF-CTFE separator membrane in Li/C-LiFePO4 half-cell shows good cyclability and rate capability, showing a discharge value after 50 cycles of 92 mAh.g-1 at 2 C, which is still 55% of the theoretical value. PVDF-CTFE separators are thus excellent candidates for high-power and safety lithium-ion batteries applications.

Sustentabilidade no Design: uma abordagem aos resíduos limpos das indústrias do calçado

Dissertação de mestrado em Design e Marketing

Sistema de reposição e de gestão de inventários na rede de lojas de uma empresa de retalho de moda

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Se tu eliminares o conto de fadas da realidade eu sou contra ti: disse Kahn

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Arquitetura (área de especialização em Cultura Arquitetónica)

Multiphasic, multistructured and hierarchical strategies for cartilage regeneration

Cartilage tissue is a complex nonlinear, viscoelastic, anisotropic, and multiphasic material with a very low coefficient of friction, which allows to withstand millions of cycles of joint loading over decades of wear. Upon damage, cartilage tissue has a low self-reparative capacity due to the lack of neural connections, vascularization, and a latent pool of stem/chondroprogenitor cells. Therefore, the healing of articular cartilage defects remains a significant clinical challenge, affecting millions of people worldwide. A plethora of biomaterials have been proposed to fabricate devices for cartilage regeneration, assuming a wide range of forms and structures, such as sponges, hydrogels, capsules, fibers, and microparticles. In common, the fabricated devices were designed taking in consideration that to fully achieve the regeneration of functional cartilage it is mandatory a well-orchestrated interplay of biomechanical properties, unique hierarchical structures, extracellular matrix (ECM), and bioactive factors. In fact, the main challenge in cartilage tissue engineering is to design an engineered device able to mimic the highly organized zonal architecture of articular cartilage, specifically its spatiomechanical properties and ECM composition, while inducing chondrogenesis, either by the proliferation of chondrocytes or by stimulating the chondrogenic differentiation  of stem/chondro-progenitor cells. In this chapter we present the recent advances in the development of innovative and complex biomaterials that fulfill the required structural key elements for cartilage regeneration. In particular, multiphasic, multiscale, multilayered, and hierarchical strategies composed by single or multiple biomaterials combined in a welldefined structure will be addressed. Those strategies include biomimetic scaffolds mimicking the structure of articular cartilage or engineered scaffolds as models of research to fully understand the biological mechanisms that influence the regeneration of cartilage tissue.