Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Análise estratégica da internacionalização da APFF- Administração do Porto da Figueira da Foz

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Negócios Internacionais

Short-term corneal changes with gas-permeable contact lens wear in keratoconus subjects: a comparison of two fitting approaches

Purpose: To evaluate changes in anterior corneal topography and higher-order aberrations (HOA) after 14-days of rigid gas-permeable (RGP) contact lens (CL) wear in keratoconus subjects comparing two different fitting approaches. Methods: Thirty-one keratoconus subjects (50 eyes) without previous history of CL wear were recruited for the study. Subjects were randomly fitted to either an apical-touch or three-pointtouch fitting approach. The lens’ back optic zone radius (BOZR) was 0.4 mm and 0.1 mm flatter than the first definite apical clearance lens, respectively. Differences between the baseline and post-CL wear for steepest, flattest and average corneal power (ACP) readings, central corneal astigmatism (CCA), maximum tangential curvature (KTag), anterior corneal surface asphericity, anterior corneal surface HOA and thinnest corneal thickness measured with Pentacam were compared. Results: A statistically significant flattening was found over time on the flattest and steepest simulated keratometry and ACP in apical-touch group (all p < 0.01). A statistically significant reduction in KTag was found in both groups after contact lens wear (all p < 0.05). Significant reduction was found over time in CCA (p = 0.001) and anterior corneal asphericity in both groups (p < 0.001). Thickness at the thinnest corneal point increased significantly after CL wear (p < 0.0001). Coma-like and total HOA root mean square (RMS) error were significantly reduced following CL wearing in both fitting approaches (all p < 0.05). Conclusion: Short-term rigid gas-permeable CL wear flattens the anterior cornea, increases the thinnest corneal thickness and reduces anterior surface HOA in keratoconus subjects. Apicaltouch was associated with greater corneal flattening in comparison to three-point-touch lens wear.

Seismic behavior of concrete block masonry buildings

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil

Our place in history: young feminists at the margins

Feminisms in Portugal, as elsewhere, have been shaped historically. From the revolutions of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, which ended monarchy and established a republican system, women have taken a stand. In the late 1970s, after 48 years of dictatorship during which feminist issues were effectively silenced, feminist groups began to appear in Portugal. It was then, in 1976, that UMAR (Unia˜o de Mulheres Alternativa e Resposta [‘Union of Women for Alternatives and Answers’]) began its fight against discrimination and violence against women.

The brewing yeast

The concept of brewing science is very recent when compared with the history of beer. It began with the microscopic observations of Louis Pasteur and evolved through the last century with improvements in engineering, microbiology, and instrumental analysis. However, the most profound insight into brewing processes only emerged in the past decades through the advances in molecular biology and genetic engineering. These techniques allowed scientists to not only affirm their experiences and past findings, but also to clarify a vast number of links between cellular structures and their role within the metabolic pathways in yeast. This chapter is therefore dedicated to the behavior of the brewing yeast during fermentation. The discussion puts together the recent findings in the core carbon and nitrogen metabolism of the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and their fermentation performance.

A cumulative risk model of child physical maltreatment potential: findings from a community-based study

"Published online before print November 20, 2015"

Childhood history of abuse and child abuse potential: the role of parent’s gender and timing of childhood abuse

It has been suggested that being physically abused leads to someone becoming a perpetrator of abuse which could be associated to parents' gender, timing of the physical abuse and specific socio-demographic variables. This study aims to investigate the role the parents' gender, timing of childhood abuse and socio-demographic variables on the relationship between parents' history of childhood physical abuse and current risk for children. The sample consisted of 920 parents (414 fathers, 506 mothers) from the Portuguese National Representative Study of Psychosocial Context of Child Abuse and Neglect who completed the Childhood History Questionnaire and the Child Abuse Potential Inventory. The results showed that fathers had lower current potential risk of becoming physical abuse perpetrators with their children than mothers although they did not differed in their physical victimization history. Moreover, the risk was higher in parents (both genders) with continuous history of victimization than in parents without victimization. Prediction models showed that for fathers and mothers separately similar socio-demographic variables (family income, number of children at home, employment status and marital status) predicted the potential risk of becoming physical abuses perpetrators. Nevertheless, the timing of victimization was different for fathers (before 13 years old) and mothers (after 13 years old). Then our study targets specific variables (timing of physical abuse, parents' gender and specific socio-demographic variables), which may enable professionals to select groups of parents at greater need of participating in abuse prevention programs.