Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

A hybrid MAC Scheme to improve the transmission performance in body sensor networks

Wireless body sensor networks (WBSNs) constitute a key technology for closing the loop between patients and healthcare providers, as WBSNs provide sensing ability, as well as mobility and portability, essential characteristics for wide acceptance of wireless healthcare technology. However, one important and difficult aspect of WBSNs is to provide data transmissions with quality of service, among other factors due to the antennas being small size and placed close to the body. Such transmissions cannot be fully provided without the assumption of a MAC protocol that solves the problems of the medium sharing. A vast number of MAC protocols conceived for wireless networks are based on random or scheduled schemes. This paper studies firstly the suitability of two MAC protocols, one using CSMA and the other TDMA, to transmit directly to the base station the signals collected continuously from multiple sensor nodes placed on the human body. Tests in a real scenario show that the beaconed TDMA MAC protocol presents an average packet loss ratio lower than CSMA. However, the average packet loss ratio is above 1.0 %. To improve this performance, which is of vital importance in areas such as e-health and ambient assisted living, a hybrid TDMA/CSMA scheme is proposed and tested in a real scenario with two WBSNs and four sensor nodes per WBSN. An average packet loss ratio lower than 0.2 % was obtained with the hybrid scheme. To achieve this significant improvement, the hybrid scheme uses a lightweight algorithm to control dynamically the start of the superframes. Scalability and traffic rate variation tests show that this strategy allows approximately ten WBSNs operating simultaneously without significant performance degradation.

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Estimating the colors of paintings

Observers can adjust the spectrum of illumination on paintings for optimal viewing experience. But can they adjust the colors of paintings for the best visual impression? In an experiment carried out on a calibrated color moni- tor images of four abstract paintings obtained from hyperspectral data were shown to observers that were unfamiliar with the paintings. The color volume of the images could be manipulated by rotating the volume around the axis through the average (a*, b*) point for each painting in CIELAB color space. The task of the observers was to adjust the angle of rotation to produce the best subjective impression from the paintings. It was found that the distribution of angles selected for data pooled across paintings and observers could be de- scribed by a Gaussian function centered at 10o, i.e. very close to the original colors of the paintings. This result suggest that painters are able to predict well what compositions of colors observers prefer.

Fendas de secagem em vigas de madeira: causas, efeitos na capacidade resistente e métodos de reparação

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil