Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Business intelligence in banking: A literature analysis from 2002 to 2013 using Text Mining and latent Dirichlet allocation

telligence applications for the banking industry. Searches were performed in relevant journals resulting in 219 articles published between 2002 and 2013. To analyze such a large number of manuscripts, text mining techniques were used in pursuit for relevant terms on both business intelligence and banking domains. Moreover, the latent Dirichlet allocation modeling was used in or- der to group articles in several relevant topics. The analysis was conducted using a dictionary of terms belonging to both banking and business intelli- gence domains. Such procedure allowed for the identification of relationships between terms and topics grouping articles, enabling to emerge hypotheses regarding research directions. To confirm such hypotheses, relevant articles were collected and scrutinized, allowing to validate the text mining proce- dure. The results show that credit in banking is clearly the main application trend, particularly predicting risk and thus supporting credit approval or de- nial. There is also a relevant interest in bankruptcy and fraud prediction. Customer retention seems to be associated, although weakly, with targeting, justifying bank offers to reduce churn. In addition, a large number of ar- ticles focused more on business intelligence techniques and its applications, using the banking industry just for evaluation, thus, not clearly acclaiming for benefits in the banking business. By identifying these current research topics, this study also highlights opportunities for future research.

Povoamento e paisagens no Vale Superior do Rio Terva, Boticas: projecto de investigação plurianual em arqueologia (PoPaTERVA 2013-2016): trabalhos arqueológicos no povoado das Batocas: relatório 2013-2014

O relatório que se apresenta respeita aos trabalhos arqueológicos desenvolvidos entre 2013 e 2014, inscritos no Projeto de Investigação Plurianual de Arqueologia (adiante PIPA) “Povoamento e Paisagens no Vale Superior do Rio Terva, Boticas – PoPaTERVA 2013-2016”, oportunamente aprovado pela Direção Geral do Património Cultural (DGPC: ofício n.º 2013/1 (169) CS: 875795 informação n.º 1704/DBC/2013). O projeto Povoamento e Paisagens no Vale Superior do Rio Terva, Boticas/ PoPaTERVA surge na sequência da conclusão do projeto de Conservação, Estudo, Valorização e Divulgação do Complexo Mineiro Antigo do Vale Superior do Rio Terva, Boticas, concebido em 2006 pela UAUM e executado entre 2010 e 2012 no âmbito de protocolo estabelecido com a Câmara Municipal de Boticas. Desta primeira ação de investigação resultou a classificação do Complexo Mineiro Antigo do Vale Superior do Rio Terva como Sítio de Interesse Público, promulgado pela Portaria n.º 386/2013 (DR, 2.º Série, n.º 115 de 18 de Junho de 2013 – ver Apêndice 7.1.2).

Povoamento e paisagens no Vale Superior do Rio Terva, Boticas: projecto de investigação plurianual em arqueologia (PoPaTERVA 2013-2016): trabalhos arqueológicos no Castro de Sapelos: relatório 2014

O presente relatório enquadra-se na execução do Projeto PoPaTERVA 2013-2016, um projeto PIPA aprovado pela DGPC em 2013 (oficio nº 06922, de 04-07-13. Ref. 2013/1 (169) CS 875795). Para o corrente ano de 2014 pretendemos dar continuidade às investigações decorrentes da implementação do projeto referido anteriormente, iniciando assim o estudo em pormenor do Castro de Sapelos. Os trabalhos arqueológicos foram iniciados a 1 de Julho e terminaram no mês de Dezembro, contaram com a participação de 4 jovens voluntários do programa municipal Boticas Mexe.

Produção científica da Universidade do Minho indexada na Web of Science e Scopus 2009-2013

Este relatório segue a metodologia utilizada no estudo da produção científica da Universidade do Minho do quinquénio 2008-2012. No estudo da produção de 2009-2013, para além da análise dos dados indexados na Web of Science, optou-se por acrescentar a análise dos dados indexados na Scopus, procedendo-se à comparação dos resultados entre ambas as bases de dados sempre que adequado e possível.

MOEA/VAN: Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm based on Vector Angle Neighborhood

Natural selection favors the survival and reproduction of organisms that are best adapted to their environment. Selection mechanism in evolutionary algorithms mimics this process, aiming to create environmental conditions in which artificial organisms could evolve solving the problem at hand. This paper proposes a new selection scheme for evolutionary multiobjective optimization. The similarity measure that defines the concept of the neighborhood is a key feature of the proposed selection. Contrary to commonly used approaches, usually defined on the basis of distances between either individuals or weight vectors, it is suggested to consider the similarity and neighborhood based on the angle between individuals in the objective space. The smaller the angle, the more similar individuals. This notion is exploited during the mating and environmental selections. The convergence is ensured by minimizing distances from individuals to a reference point, whereas the diversity is preserved by maximizing angles between neighboring individuals. Experimental results reveal a highly competitive performance and useful characteristics of the proposed selection. Its strong diversity preserving ability allows to produce a significantly better performance on some problems when compared with stat-of-the-art algorithms.

Clinical Epidemiology of Buruli ulcer from Benin (2005-2013): effect of time-delay to diagnosis on clinical forms and severe phenotypes

Buruli Ulcer (BU) is a neglected infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans that is responsible for severe necrotizing cutaneous lesions that may be associated with bone involvement. Clinical presentations of BU lesions are classically classified as papules, nodules, plaques and edematous infiltration, ulcer or osteomyelitis. Within these different clinical forms, lesions can be further classified as severe forms based on focality (multiple lesions), lesions' size (>15 cm diameter) or WHO Category (WHO Category 3 lesions). There are studies reporting an association between delay in seeking medical care and the development of ulcerative forms of BU or osteomyelitis, but the effect of time-delay on the emergence of lesions classified as severe has not been addressed. To address both issues, and in a cohort of laboratory-confirmed BU cases, 476 patients from a medical center in Allada, Benin, were studied. In this laboratory-confirmed cohort, we validated previous observations, demonstrating that time-delay is statistically related to the clinical form of BU. Indeed, for non-ulcerated forms (nodule, edema, and plaque) the median time-delay was 32.5 days (IQR 30.0-67.5), while for ulcerated forms it was 60 days (IQR 20.0-120.0) (p = 0.009), and for bone lesions, 365 days (IQR 228.0-548.0). On the other hand, we show here that time-delay is not associated with the more severe phenotypes of BU, such as multi-focal lesions (median 90 days; IQR 56-217.5; p = 0.09), larger lesions (diameter >15 cm) (median 60 days; IQR 30-120; p = 0.92) or category 3 WHO classification (median 60 days; IQR 30-150; p = 0.20), when compared with unifocal (median 60 days; IQR 30-90), small lesions (diameter =15 cm) (median 60 days; IQR 30-90), or WHO category 1+2 lesions (median 60 days; IQR 30-90), respectively. Our results demonstrate that after an initial period of progression towards ulceration or bone involvement, BU lesions become stable regarding size and focal/multi-focal progression. Therefore, in future studies on BU epidemiology, severe clinical forms should be systematically considered as distinct phenotypes of the same disease and thus subjected to specific risk factor investigation.

The role of liquid-based cytology and ancillary techniques in pleural and pericardic effusions: An institutional experience

BACKGROUND: Fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) of serous membrane effusions may fulfil a challenging role in the diagnostic analysis of both primary and metastatic disease. From this perspective, liquid-based cytology (LBC) represents a feasible and reliable method for empowering the performance of ancillary techniques (ie, immunocytochemistry and molecular testing) with high diagnostic accuracy. METHODS: In total, 3171 LBC pleural and pericardic effusions were appraised between January 2000 and December 2013. They were classified as negative for malignancy (NM), suspicious for malignancy (SM), or positive for malignancy (PM). RESULTS: The cytologic diagnoses included 2721 NM effusions (2505 pleural and 216 pericardic), 104 SM effusions (93 pleural and 11 pericardic), and 346 PM effusions (321 pleural and 25 pericardic). The malignant pleural series included 76 unknown malignancies (36 SM and 40 PM effusions), 174 metastatic lesions (85 SM and 89 PM effusions), 14 lymphomas (3 SM and 11 PM effusions), 16 mesotheliomas (5 SM and 11 SM effusions), and 3 myelomas (all SM effusions). The malignant pericardic category included 20 unknown malignancies (5 SM and 15 PM effusions), 15 metastatic lesions (1 SM and 14 PM effusions), and 1 lymphoma (1 PM effusion). There were 411 conclusive immunocytochemical analyses and 47 molecular analyses, and the authors documented 88% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 98% diagnostic accuracy, 98% negative predictive value, and 100% positive predictive value for FNAC. CONCLUSIONS: FNAC represents a primary diagnostic tool for effusions and a reliable approach with which to determine the correct follow-up. Furthermore, LBC is useful for ancillary techniques, such as immunocytochemistry and molecular analysis, with feasible diagnostic and predictive utility.

A Reorganização Administrativa do Território das Freguesias 2013 enquanto determinante de voto: estudo caso do Concelho de Braga e Guimarães

Dissertação de mestrado em Administração Pública

[Recensão a] Basílio, Margarida (2013). Formação e classes de palavras no português do Brasil

[Excerto] Antes de mais, impõe-se este esclarecimento: estamos na presença da 1.ª reimpressão da 3.ª edição (a 1.ª é de 2004) do livro em epígrafe, e a razão de só agora o estar a recensear (sabia contudo da sua existência há já alguns anos) tem simplesmente a ver com o facto de não há muito me ter chegado às mãos e, sobretudo, de só muito recentemente ter tido a oportunidade de o ler como deve ser, isto é, reflexivamente. Trata-se de um pequeno grande texto de uma especialista na matéria (Margarida Basílio, professora titular da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro), que conheço há longos anos de outros, de que destacaria Teoria lexical (São Paulo: Ática, 1987) e Estruturas lexicais do português: uma abordagem gerativa (Petrópolis: Vozes, 1980). Pequeno, é claro, só no número de páginas: nem sequer chega às cem (noventa e cinco, contabilizadas já as duas com as referências bibliográficas). Grande, deveras, no que diz respeito à temática e de modo particular ao seu tratamento: uma descrição de pendor didático dos padrões gerais e dos principais processos de formação de palavras na variedade brasileira do português. (...)

Historical analysis of the Brazilian cervical cancer screening program from 2006 to 2013: a time for reflection

BACKGROUND: The Cervical Cancer Database of the Brazilian National Health Service (SISCOLO) contains information regarding all cervical cytological tests and, if properly explored, can be used as a tool for monitoring and managing the cervical cancer screening program. The aim of this study was to perform a historical analysis of the cervical cancer screening program in Brazil from 2006 to 2013. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data necessary to calculate quality indicators were obtained from the SISCOLO, a Brazilian health system tool. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change. RESULTS: We observed important trends showing decreased rates of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) and an increased rate of rejected exams from 2009 to 2013. The index of positivity was maintained at levels below those indicated by international standards; very low frequencies of unsatisfactory cases were observed over the study period, which partially contradicts the low rate of positive cases. The number of positive cytological diagnoses was below that expected, considering that developed countries with low frequencies of cervical cancer detect more lesions annually. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of indicators from 2006 to 2013 suggests that actions must be taken to improve the effectiveness of cervical cancer control in Brazil.

Relatório de estágio na Fundação Bracara Augusta - Loja Europa Jovem, com ênfase no caso de estudo sobre os impactos sócio económicos do Programa Juventude em Ação 2007-2013 no Município de Braga

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Políticas Comunitárias e Cooperação Territorial

O impacto da gestão de fundo de maneio na rendibilidade das empresas durante a crise financeira: evidência europeia

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

Dispositivo de avaliação externa ao ensino superior: um estudo exploratório sobre acreditação à Universidade Nacional Timor Lorosa'e, 2008 – 2013

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciências da Educação (área de especialização em Avaliação)

Gender and media: where do we stand today?

Nowadays, the public discourses about gender equality are commonly accepted in Western society. In fact, we live in an era of “equality illusion” (Banyard, 2010) because the mainstream discourses incorporate gender in the agenda, conveying the message that feminist struggles are unnecessary today. At the same time, postfeminism (McRobbie, 2004) gains importance and demonstrates the intricacies of a neoliberal, highly individualist culture that subtly imprisons the freedoms that it is supposed to grant (Gill & Scharff, 2011). However, back in 1978, Gaye Tuchman used the expression “symbolic annihilation” to refer to how the media represented women. The author refers to a “symbolic annihilation” because sometimes it is so hidden and subtle that it becomes difficult to perceive – and to be fought. Much has improved since then; yet a lot remains the same. Over the past decades there have been marked changes in gender relations, in feminist activism, in the (media) communication industry and in society in general (Byerly, 2013; Carter, Steiner & McLaughlin, 2015; Gallagher, 2014; Gallego, 2013; Krijnen, Álvares & Van Bauwel, 2011; Krijnen & Van Bauwel, 2015; Lobo, Silveirinha, Subtil, & Torres, 2015; Ross, 2009; Silveirinha, 2001; Van Zoonen, 1994, 2010). Now, in a globalised and media saturated world, the gendered picture is, consequently, different. The contemporary grammar is marked by diverse and complex tensions (van Zoonen, 2010).