Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Perchlorate and chlorate reduction by the Crenarchaeon Aeropyrum pernix and two thermophilic Firmicutes

This study reports the ability of one hyperthermophile and two thermophilic microorganisms to grow anaerobically by the reduction of chlorate and perchlorate. Physiological, genomic and proteome analyses suggest that the Crenarchaeon Aeropyrum pernix reduces perchlorate with a periplasmic enzyme related to nitrate reductases, but that it lacks a functional chlorite-disproportionating enzyme (Cld) to complete the pathway. A. pernix, previously described as a strictly aerobic microorganism, seems to rely on the chemical reactivity of reduced sulfur compounds with chlorite, a mechanism previously reported for perchlorate-reducing Archaeoglobus fulgidus. The chemical oxidation of thiosulfate (in excessive amounts present in the medium) and the reduction of chlorite result in the release of sulfate and chloride, which are the products of a biotic-abiotic perchlorate reduction pathway in A. pernix. The apparent absence of Cld in two other perchlorate-reducing microorganisms, Carboxydothermus hydrogenoformans and Moorella glycerini strain NMP, and their dependence on sulfide for perchlorate reduction is consistent with observations made on A. fulgidus. Our findings suggest that microbial perchlorate reduction at high temperature differs notably from the physiology of perchlorate- and chlorate-reducing mesophiles and that it is characterized by the lack of a chlorite dismutase and is enabled by a combination of biotic and abiotic reactions.

Energy and carbon prices: a comparison of interactions in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and the Western Climate Initiative market

We provide a comparative analysis of how short-run variations in carbon and energy prices relate to each other in the emerging greenhouse gas market in California (Western Climate Initiative [WCI], and the European Union Emission Trading Scheme [EU ETS]). We characterize the relationship between carbon, gas, coal, electricity and gasoline prices and an indicator for economic activity, and present a first analysis of carbon prices in the WCI. We also provide a comparative analysis of the structures of the two markets. We estimate a vector autoregressive model and the impulse--response functions. Our main findings show a positive impact from a carbon shock toward electricity, in both markets, but larger in the WCI electricity price, indicating more efficiency. We propose that the widening of carbon market sectors, namely fuels transport and electricity imports, may contribute to this result. To conclude, the research shows significant and coherent relations between variables in WCI, which demonstrate some degree of success for a first year in operation. Reversely, the EU ETS should complete its intended market reform, to allow for more impact of the carbon price. Finally, in both markets, there is no evidence of carbon pricing depleting economic activity.

The Pope’s encyclical as a call for democratic social change

(Excerto) By addressing the ideologies and practices of the social dynamics entwined with climate change, the encyclical exposes the profoundly political character of global environmental change and its connection with economics and culture. The publication of the encyclical is action in the public space via language oriented to persuasion which, in Hannah Arendt’s terms, is the very essence of politics.