Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Análisis mecánico de albañilería arqueológica de adobe bajo cargas de compresión uniaxial: El caso de Huaca de la Luna

This article presents an experimental and numerical study for the mechanical characterization under uniaxial compressive loading of the adobe masonry of one of the most emblematic archaeological complex in Peru, 'Huaca de la Luna' (100-650AD). Compression tests of prisms were carried out with original material brought to the laboratory. For measuring local deformations in the tests, displacement transducers were used which were complemented by a digital image correlation system which allowed a better understanding of the failure mechanism. The tests were then numerically simulated by modelling the masonry as a continuum media. Several approaches were considered concerning the geometrical modelling, namely 2D and 3D simplified models, and 3D refined models based on a photogrammetric reconstruction. The results showed a good approximation between the numerical prediction and the experimental response in all cases. However, the 3D models with irregular geometries seem to reproduce better the cracking pattern observed in the tests.

Tube-jack and sonic testing for the evaluation of the state of stress in historical masonry

In the investigation and diagnosis of damages to historical masonry structures, the state of stress of the masonry is an important characteristic that must be determined with as much accuracy as possible. Flat-jack testing is a traditional method used to determine the state of stress in historical masonry structures. However, when irregular masonry is tested the method can cause damage to the masonry units and the accuracy of the method is reduced. An enhanced technique, called tube-jack testing, is being developed at the University of Minho to reduce the damage caused during testing and improve the accuracy when used on irregular masonry. This method uses multiple cylindrical jacks inserted in a line of holes drilled in the mortar joints of the masonry, avoiding damage to the masonry units. Concurrently with the development of tube-jack testing, the effect of stress state on sonic testing is being studied. Sonic testing is often used to determine locations of voids and damage in masonry. The focus of these studies was to determine if the state of stress is influencing the sonic test results. In this paper the results of tube-jack testing and sonic testing on masonry walls, built for the purpose of this study in the laboratory, loaded in compression is presented. The tube-jack testing is used to estimate the state of stress in the masonry and the sonic test results are evaluated based on the effect of the applied load on the wall. Future testing and study are suggested for continued development of these test methods.

Effect of chemical and plasma DBD treatments on pseudostem plantain fiber properties

Las fibras del seudotallo de plátano (FSP) fueron modificadas mediante epiclorhidrina (EP), anhídrido acético (AA), y su combinación (AA_EP), y con plasma a tres descargas de barrera dieléctrica (DBD) 1, 3 y 6 kW min m-2. Las FSP tratadas y sin tratar fueron caracterizadas mediante espectroscopia infrarroja por la transformada de Fourier (FT-IR), termogravimetría (TGA), microscopía electrónica de barrido (SEM) y pruebas mecánicas de tensión y de humectabilidad. Los espectros FT-IR, las micrografías SEM, y el análisis TGA indicaron pérdidas de lignina, hemicelulosa, impurezas y ceras. Estos efectos en conjunto con las reacciones de grupos OH y -C-C-, con los tratamientos químicos y de plasma respectivamente, incrementaron la hidrofobicidad de las FSP tratadas. Los tratamientos químicos produjeron reacciones de esterificación, eterificación y entrecruzamiento de los grupos OH libres en las FSP, lo que hizo que mostraran mayor rigidez que las expuestas al plasma. Las micrografías SEM mostraron que las FSP expuestas al plasma quedaron con superficie más irregular y rugosa que la de las FSP tratadas químicamente. La humectabilidad de las fibras, medida mediante pruebas de ángulo de contacto, se redujo como consecuencia de ambos tratamientos, característica importante para un relleno en los materiales compuestos.

Aquisição de verbos da língua portuguesa, no primeiro ciclo de escolaridade, por crianças bilingues luso-alemãs e crianças monolingues alemãs

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Linguagem (área de especialização em Linguística Aplicada).

Estudo do comportamento tribológico de materiais compósitos à base de titânio reforçado com partículas cerâmicas para aplicação em implantes articulares

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica

Incentivos, desempenho e remunerações: o caso português

Dissertação de mestrado em Economia Industrial e da Empresa

Estudo comparativo entre indicadores de desempenho da JCI e do Contrato Programa Cirurgia Segura

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia e Gestão da Qualidade

As Inteligências Múltiplas no processo de ensino-aprendizagem de ELE

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Inglês e Espanhol no 3º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e no Ensino Secundário