Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

An investigation of safety design practices of metal machines

BACKGROUND: Machinery safety issues are a challenge facing manufacturers who are supposed to create and provide products in a better and faster way. In spite of their construction and technological advance, they still contribute to many potential hazards for operators and those nearby. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to investigate safety aspects of metal machinery offered for sale on Internet market according to compliance with minimum and fundamental requirements. METHODS: The study was carried out with the application of a checklist prepared on the basis of Directive 2006/42/EC and Directive 2009/104/EC and regulations enforcing them into Polish law. RESULTS: On the basis of the study it was possible to reveal the safety aspects that were not met in practice. It appeared that in the case of minimum requirements the most relevant problems concerned information, signal and control elements, technology and machinery operations, whereas as far as fundamental aspects are concerned it was hard to assure safe work process. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of the fact that more and more legal acts binding in the Member Countries of the European Union are being introduced to alleviate the phenomenon, these regulations are often not fulfilled.

The role of Pep4p, the vacuolar yeast protease ortholog of human cathepsin D, in mitochondria-dependent apoptosis

Doctoral Thesis (PhD Programm on Molecular and Environmental Biology)

Structural analysis of the masonry envelope of Ica Cathedral, Peru

Dissertação de mestrado em Structural Analysis of Monuments and Historical Constructions

Assessment of innovative solutions for non-load bearing masonry enclosures

This paper presents some of the results of the research project “Masonry Enclosures” developed in the framework of the transnational access (TA) to LNEC’s triaxial shake table within the FP7 project SERIES.

Internship report of blog translation at the company Menina Design Group

Dissertação de mestrado em Tradução e Comunicação Multilingue