On the length of bank-firm relationships: an empirical application to a major French bank

NIPE - WP 01/ 2016

Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Centrality and rapidity dependence of inclusive jet production in sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of the centrality and rapidity dependence of inclusive jet production in sNN−−−√=5.02 TeV proton--lead (p+Pb) collisions and the jet cross-section in s√=2.76 TeV proton--proton collisions are presented. These quantities are measured in datasets corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 27.8 nb−1 and 4.0 pb−1, respectively, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2013. The p+Pb collision centrality was characterised using the total transverse energy measured in the pseudorapidity interval −4.9<η<−3.2 in the direction of the lead beam. Results are presented for the double-differential per-collision yields as a function of jet rapidity and transverse momentum (pT) for minimum-bias and centrality-selected p+Pb collisions, and are compared to the jet rate from the geometric expectation. The total jet yield in minimum-bias events is slightly enhanced above the expectation in a pT-dependent manner but is consistent with the expectation within uncertainties. The ratios of jet spectra from different centrality selections show a strong modification of jet production at all pT at forward rapidities and for large pT at mid-rapidity, which manifests as a suppression of the jet yield in central events and an enhancement in peripheral events. These effects imply that the factorisation between hard and soft processes is violated at an unexpected level in proton--nucleus collisions. Furthermore, the modifications at forward rapidities are found to be a function of the total jet energy only, implying that the violations may have a simple dependence on the hard parton--parton kinematics.

On the temperature dependence of the absorption cross section for black holes in string theory

We study the low frequency absorption cross section of spherically symmetric nonextremal d-dimensional black holes. In the presence of α′ corrections, this quantity must have an explicit dependence on the Hawking temperature of the form 1/TH. This property of the low frequency absorption cross section is shared by the D1-D5 system from type IIB superstring theory already at the classical level, without α′ corrections. We apply our formula to the simplest example, the classical d-dimensional Reissner-Nordstr¨om solution, checking that the obtained formula for the cross section has a smooth extremal limit. We also apply it for a d-dimensional Tangherlini-like solution with α′3 corrections.