Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Measurements of Higgs boson production and couplings in the four-lepton channel in pp collisions at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The final ATLAS Run 1 measurements of Higgs boson production and couplings in the decay channel H→ZZ∗→ℓ+ℓ−ℓ′+ℓ′−, where ℓ,ℓ′=e or μ, are presented. These measurements were performed using pp collision data corresponding to integrated luminosities of 4.5 fb−1 and 20.3 fb−1 at center-of-mass energies of 7 TeV and 8 TeV, respectively, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The H→ZZ∗→4ℓ signal is observed with a significance of 8.1 standard deviations at 125.36 GeV, the combined ATLAS measurement of the Higgs boson mass from the H→γγ and H→ZZ∗→4ℓ channels. The production rate relative to the Standard Model expectation, the signal strength, is measured in four different production categories in the H→ZZ∗→4ℓ channel. The measured signal strength, at this mass, and with all categories combined, is 1.44 +0.40−0.33. The signal strength for Higgs boson production in gluon fusion or in association with tt¯ or bb¯ pairs is found to be 1.7 +0.5−0.4, while the signal strength for vector-boson fusion combined with WH/ZH associated production is found to be 0.3 +1.6−0.9.

Search for s-channel single top-quark production in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This Letter presents a search at the LHC for s-channel single top-quark production in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The analyzed data set was recorded by the ATLAS detector and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1. Selected events contain one charged lepton, large missing transverse momentum and exactly two b-tagged jets. A multivariate event classifier based on boosted decision trees is developed to discriminate s-channel single top-quark events from the main background contributions. The signal extraction is based on a binned maximum-likelihood fit of the output classifier distribution. The analysis leads to an upper limit on the s-channel single top-quark production cross-section of 14.6 pb at the 95% confidence level. The fit gives a cross-section of σs=5.0±4.3 pb, consistent with the Standard Model expectation.

Search for the Xb and other hidden-beauty states in the π+π-ϒ{hooked}(1S) channel at ATLAS

This Letter presents a search for a hidden-beauty counterpart of the X(3872) in the mass ranges 10.05--10.31 GeV and 10.40--11.00 GeV, in the channel Xb→π+π−Υ(1S)(→μ+μ−), using 16.2 fb−1 of s√=8 TeV pp collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. No evidence for new narrow states is found, and upper limits are set on the product of the Xb cross section and branching fraction, relative to those of the Υ(2S), at the 95% confidence level using the CLS approach. These limits range from 0.8% to 4.0%, depending on mass. For masses above 10.1 GeV, the expected upper limits from this analysis are the most restrictive to date. Searches for production of the Υ(13DJ), Υ(10860), and Υ(11020) states also reveal no significant signals.

Measurement of the top-quark mass in the fully hadronic decay channel from ATLAS data at s√=7 TeV

The mass of the top quark is measured in a data set corresponding to 4.6 fb−1 of proton--proton collisions with centre-of-mass energy s√=7 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events consistent with hadronic decays of top--antitop quark pairs with at least six jets in the final state are selected. The substantial background from multijet production is modelled with data-driven methods that utilise the number of identified b-quark jets and the transverse momentum of the sixth leading jet, which have minimal correlation. The top-quark mass is obtained from template fits to the ratio of three-jet to dijet mass. The three-jet mass is calculated from the three jets of a top-quark decay. Using these three jets the dijet mass is obtained from the two jets of the W boson decay. The top-quark mass obtained from this fit is thus less sensitive to the uncertainty in the energy measurement of the jets. A binned likelihood fit yields a top-quark mass of mt = 175.1 ± 1.4 (stat.) ± 1.2 (syst.) GeV.

Determination of spin and parity of the Higgs boson in the WW∗→eνμν decay channel with the ATLAS detector

Studies of the spin and parity quantum numbers of the Higgs boson in the WW∗→eνμν final state are presented, based on proton--proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV. The Standard Model spin-parity JCP=0++ hypothesis is compared with alternative hypotheses for both spin and CP. The case where the observed resonance is a mixture of the Standard-Model-like Higgs boson and CP-even (JCP=0++) or CP-odd (JCP=0+−) Higgs boson in scenarios beyond the Standard Model is also studied. The data are found to be consistent with the Standard Model prediction and limits are placed on alternative spin and CP hypotheses, including CP mixing in different scenarios.

On the length of bank-firm relationships: an empirical application to a major French bank

NIPE - WP 01/ 2016