Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

On the length of bank-firm relationships: an empirical application to a major French bank

NIPE - WP 01/ 2016

Summary of the ATLAS experiment's sensitivity to supersymmetry after LHC Run 1-interpreted in the phenomenological MSSM

A summary of the constraints from the ATLAS experiment on R-parity-conserving supersymmetry is presented. Results from 22 separate ATLAS searches are considered, each based on analysis of up to 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at centre-of-mass energies of s√=7 and 8 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider. The results are interpreted in the context of the 19-parameter phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model, in which the lightest supersymmetric particle is a neutralino, taking into account constraints from previous precision electroweak and flavour measurements as well as from dark matter related measurements. The results are presented in terms of constraints on supersymmetric particle masses and are compared to limits from simplified models. The impact of ATLAS searches on parameters such as the dark matter relic density, the couplings of the observed Higgs boson, and the degree of electroweak fine-tuning is also shown. Spectra for surviving supersymmetry model points with low fine-tunings are presented.

ATLAS Run 1 searches for direct pair production of third-generation squarks at the Large Hadron Collider

This paper reviews and extends searches for the direct pair production of the scalar supersymmetric partners of the top and bottom quarks in proton--proton collisions collected by the ATLAS collaboration during the LHC Run 1. Most of the analyses use 20 fb−1 of collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV, although in some case an additional 4.7 fb−1 of collision data at s√=7 TeV are used. New analyses are introduced to improve the sensitivity to specific regions of the model parameter space. Since no evidence of third-generation squarks is found, exclusion limits are derived by combining several analyses and are presented in both a simplified model framework, assuming simple decay chains, as well as within the context of more elaborate phenomenological supersymmetric models.