Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Integration of geometric consistency contributory factors in three-leg junctions collision prediction models of Portuguese two-lane national highways

This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctionsâ area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.

Ensaio à rotura de protótipo de edifício em lajes de betão auto-compactável reforçado com fibras

O presente artigo descreve a investigação experimental realizada para avaliar as potencialidades da utilização de betão auto-compactável reforçado com fibras de aço (BACRFA) na construção de lajes fungiformes de edifícios de habitação e comércio, onde as fibras são o único reforço aplicado nas lajes. Para tal foi construído um protótipo deste tipo de edifícios, à escala 1:4, e ensaiado para condições de carga que permitissem avaliar o seu comportamento em serviço e em rotura. Estes ensaios foram complementados por um extenso programa experimental de caracterização do comportamento mecânico do BACRFA. Os ensaios de fluência no protótipo demonstraram a não ocorrência de fendas, bem como uma deformação dentro dos limites aceitáveis para este tipo de construção até uma sobrecarga de aproximadamente 40 kN/m2. No ensaio à rotura, o protótipo desenvolveu elevada capacidade de carga e rotura dúctil por flexão com formação de padrão difuso de fendas. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que o BACRFA desenvolvido demonstra potencial para ser utilizado no tipo de aplicação em causa com benefícios técnico e económicos.

Durabilidade do betão auto-compactável reforçado com fibras de aço

A durabilidade é um dos aspetos mais importantes que o betão deve garantir, devido à sua fundamental incidência na vida útil das estruturas. Devido ao número crescente de estruturas degradadas prematuramente, a durabilidade das estruturas de betão tem sido uma preocupação constante no meio técnico da construção. As estruturas de betão reforçado com fibras de aço (BRFA) estão sujeitas à penetração de cloretos e à ação da carbonatação que causam a corrosão das fibras de aço, o que pode influenciar negativamente o desempenho estrutural e a durabilidade do betão. A investigação da durabilidade do betão auto-compactável reforçado com fibras de aço (BACRFA) é ainda escassa, nomeadamente, os aspetos relacionados com a resistência à corrosão das fibras, suscitando a dúvida se a corrosão das fibras pode, ou não, provocar o destacamento do betão envolvente. Neste contexto, foi realizado um trabalho experimental com provetes de BACRFA e provetes de betão auto-compactável (BAC) sem fibras com o objetivo de avaliar os efeitos da corrosão das fibras de aço na durabilidade do BACRFA. Os resultados obtidos para os diferentes betões em estudo são apresentados e analisados.

Conceptual-physical bridging – From BPMN models to physical implementations on kettle

Developing and implementing data-oriented workflows for data migration processes are complex tasks involving several problems related to the integration of data coming from different schemas. Usually, they involve very specific requirements - every process is almost unique. Having a way to abstract their representation will help us to better understand and validate them with business users, which is a crucial step for requirements validation. In this demo we present an approach that provides a way to enrich incrementally conceptual models in order to support an automatic way for producing their correspondent physical implementation. In this demo we will show how B2K (Business to Kettle) system works transforming BPMN 2.0 conceptual models into Kettle data-integration executable processes, approaching the most relevant aspects related to model design and enrichment, model to system transformation, and system execution.

Automatic generation of ETL physical systems from BPMN conceptual models

ETL conceptual modeling is a very important activity in any data warehousing system project implementation. Owning a high-level system representation allowing for a clear identification of the main parts of a data warehousing system is clearly a great advantage, especially in early stages of design and development. However, the effort to model conceptually an ETL system rarely is properly rewarded. Translating ETL conceptual models directly into something that saves work and time on the concrete implementation of the system process it would be, in fact, a great help. In this paper we present and discuss a hybrid approach to this problem, combining the simplicity of interpretation and power of expression of BPMN on ETL systems conceptualization with the use of ETL patterns to produce automatically an ETL skeleton, a first prototype system, which has the ability to be executed in a commercial ETL tool like Kettle.

Implementation of integral viscoelastic constitutive models in OpenFOAM® computational library

This work reports the implementation and verification of a new so lver in OpenFOAM® open source computational library, able to cope with integral viscoelastic models based on the integral upper-convected Maxwell model. The code is verified through the comparison of its predictions with analytical solutions and numerical results obtained with the differential upper-convected Maxwell model

Lithium ion rechargeable batteries: State of the art and future needs of microscopic theoretical models and simulations

This review deals with the recent developments and present status of the theoretical models for the simulation of the performance of lithium ion batteries. Preceded by a description of the main materials used for each of the components of a battery -anode, cathode and separator- and how material characteristics affect battery performance, a description of the main theoretical models describing the operation and performance of a battery are presented. The influence of the most relevant parameters of the models, such as boundary conditions, geometry and material characteristics are discussed. Finally, suggestions for future work are proposed.

Influência da corrosão no comportamento ao arrancamento de fibras de aço no betão auto-compactável

Quando adicionadas ao betão, a possibilidade de corrosão das fibras de aço , devido à penetração de cloretos e ação da carbonatação, é um parâmetro de durabilidade no betão auto-compactável reforçado com fibras de aço (BACRFA) que requer especial atenção. No BACRFA fendilhado, a corrosão tende a ocorrer nas fibras de aço que atravessam as fissuras, o que pode afetar o seu comportamento à flexão. Deste modo, o estudo do comportamento interfacial fibra/matriz é importante para a compreensão dos efeitos da corrosão das fibras de aço no comportamento mecânico e na durabilidade das estruturas de BACRFA. Com o intuito de avaliar estes efeitos, no presente trabalho desenvolveu-se um ensaio experimental de arrancamento de fibras de aço em BAC fendilhado, sujeitas previamente à ação da corrosão por exposição a um ambiente agressivo de cloretos, sendo a corrosão avaliada por intermédio de técnicas eletroquímicas. Os ensaios eletroquímicos realizados revelaram que a probabilidade de corrosão das fibras de aço num ambiente com cloretos é superior a 90%. No mesmo ambiente, a susceptibilidade para a corros ão das fibras de aço que atravessam uma pseudo-fissura, aumenta com a abertura de fissura provocando um aumento da resistência ao arranque da fibra em BAC fissurado

Estudo de viabilidade e durabilidade de concreto auto-adensável em canteiro de obra. Caso da Arena Pernambuco

A pesquisa estudou a aplicação, resistência e durabilidade de concreto auto-adensável (CAA) numa grande obra, comparando-se seu desempenho com concreto convencional vibrado (CC) de características similares, aferindo-se sua viabilidade de custo. Os estudos foram na obra da Arena Pernambuco e incidiram nas betonagens efetuadas durante os meses de maio, junho e julho de 2012, para coleta de dados, acompanhamento dos ensaios rotineiros de controle do concreto e realização de ensaios de resistência e durabilidade específicos da pesquisa. A resistência à compressão do CAA foi em média 4,5% superior, e suas formas reforçadas para suportar maior pressão lateral do concreto. Os resultados de durabilidade foram favoráveis ao CAA, tendo custo dos materiais cerca de 13,5% superior ao CC.

Indicadores de durabilidade de concreto auto-adensável em ambiente quente e agressivo. Comparativo com concreto convencional

O concreto auto-adensável (CAA) necessita de ser mais estudado no que concerne à durabilidade em ambientes mais agressivos e de maior temperatura, comparativamente ao concreto convencional vibrado (CC). O presente trabalho objetiva apresentar os resultados de indicadores de durabilidade de CAA e CC de igual relação água/ligante e mesmos constituintes. A metodologia aplicou ensaios de resistência mecânica, resistividade elétrica, difusão de íons cloreto e carbonatação acelerada, dentre outros, bem como estudo de micro estrutura com ensaios de microscopia eletrônica de varredura e micro tomografia. Os ensaios se desenvolveram em laboratório de pesquisa e na obra da Arena Pernambuco. O CAA apresentou resistência à compressão 7,4% maior que o CC aos 28 dias; resistividade elétrica média 11,4% superior; difusão de íons cloreto com média de 63,3% do CC; frente de carbonatação com média de 45,8% do CC; porosidade com média de 55,6% do CC. Pelos resultados, ficou demonstrado que o CAA pode ser mais durável que o CC, contribuindo para elucidar os aspectos relacionados à sua durabilidade e consequente vida útil.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

A epistemologia do movimento da auto-organização (MAO)

Comunicação oral, não escrita, não submetida a publicação.

Exploring female mice interstrain differences relevant for models of depression

Depression is an extremely heterogeneous disorder. Diverse molecular mechanisms have been suggested to underlie its etiology. To understand the molecular mechanisms responsible for this complex disorder, researchers have been using animal models extensively, namely mice from various genetic backgrounds and harboring distinct genetic modifications. The use of numerous mouse models has contributed to enrich our knowledge on depression. However, accumulating data also revealed that the intrinsic characteristics of each mouse strain might influence the experimental outcomes, which may justify some conflicting evidence reported in the literature. To further understand the impact of the genetic background, we performed a multimodal comparative study encompassing the most relevant parameters commonly addressed in depression, in three of the most widely used mouse strains: Balb/c, C57BL/6, and CD-1. Moreover, female mice were selected for this study taken into account the higher prevalence of depression in women and the fewer animal studies using this gender. Our results show that Balb/c mice have a more pronounced anxious-like behavior than CD-1 and C57BL/6 mice, whereas C57BL/6 animals present the strongest depressive-like trait. Furthermore, C57BL/6 mice display the highest rate of proliferating cells and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (Bdnf) expression levels in the hippocampus, while hippocampal dentate granular neurons of Balb/c mice show smaller dendritic lengths and fewer ramifications. Of notice, the expression levels of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNos) predict 39.5% of the depressive-like behavior index, which suggests a key role of hippocampal iNOS in depression. Overall, this study reveals important interstrain differences in several behavioral dimensions and molecular and cellular parameters that should be considered when preparing and analyzing experiments addressing depression using mouse models. It further contributes to the literature by revealing the predictive value of hippocampal iNos expression levels in depressive-like behavior, irrespectively of the mouse strain.