Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

Effect of butadiene/styrene ratio, block structure and carbon nanotube content on the mechanical and electrical properties of thermoplastic elastomers after UV ageing

Thermoplastic elastomers based on a triblock copolymer styrene-butadiene-styrene (SBS) with different butadiene/styrene ratios, block structure and carbon nanotube (CNT) content were submitted to accelerated weathering in a Xenontest set up, in order to evaluate their stability to UV ageing. It was concluded that ageing mainly depends on butadiene/styrene ratio and block structure, with radial block structures exhibiting a faster ageing than linear block structures. Moreover, the presence of carbon nanotubes in the SBS copolymer slows down the ageing of the copolymer. The evaluation of the influence of ageing on the mechanical and electrical properties demonstrates that the mechanical degradation is higher for the C401 sample, which is the SBS sample with the largest butadiene content and a radial block structure. On the other hand, a copolymer derivate from SBS, the styrene-ethylene/butadiene-styrene (SEBS) sample, retains a maximum deformation of ~1000% after 80 h of accelerated ageing. The hydrophobicity of the samples decreases with increasing ageing time, the effect being larger for the samples with higher butadiene content. It is also verified that cytotoxicity increases with increasing UV ageing with the exception of SEBS, which remains not cytotoxic up to 80 h of accelerated ageing time, demonstrating its potential for applications involving exposition to environmental conditions.

Real-time monitoring of progression towards renal failure in primary care patients

First published online: December 16, 2014.

A FEM-based model to study the behaviour of corroded RC beams shear repaired by NSM CFRP rods technique

This paper presents the main features of finite element FE numerical model developed using the computer code FEMIX to predict the near-surface mounted NSM carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer CFRP rods shear repair contribution to corroded reinforced concrete RC beams. In the RC beams shear repaired with NSM technique, the Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves onto the concrete cover of the RC beam’s lateral faces and are bonded to the concrete with high epoxy adhesive. Experimental and 3D numerical modelling results are presented in this paper in terms of load-deflection curves, and failure modes for 4 short corroded beams: two corroded beams (A1CL3-B and A1CL3-SB) and two control beams (A1T-B and A1T-SB), the beams noted with B were let repaired in bending only with NSM CFRP rods while the ones noted with SB were repaired in both bending and shear with NSM technique. The corrosion of the tensile steel bars and its effect on the shear capacity of the RC beams was discussed. Results showed that the FE model was able to capture the main aspects of the experimental load-deflection curves of the RC beams, moreover it has presented the experimental failure modes and FE numerical modelling crack patterns and both gave similar results for non-shear repaired beams which failed in diagonal tension mode of failure and for shear-repaired beams which failed due to large flexural crack at the middle of the beams along with the concrete crushing, three dimensional crack patterns were produced for shear-repaired beams in order to investigate the splitting cracks occurred at the middle of the beams and near the support.

A FEM-based model to study the behaviour of corroded RC beams shear repaired by NSM CFRP rods technique

This paper presents the main features of finite element FE numerical model developed using the computer code FEMIX to predict the near-surface mounted NSM carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer CFRP rods shear repair contribution to corroded reinforced concrete RC beams. In the RC beams shear repaired with NSM technique, the Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves onto the concrete cover of the RC beam’s lateral faces and are bonded to the concrete with high epoxy adhesive. Experimental and 3D numerical modelling results are presented in this paper in terms of load-deflection curves, failure modes and slip information of the tensile steel bars for 4 short corroded beams: two corroded beams (A1CL3-B and A1CL3-SB) and two control beams (A1T-B and A1T-SB), the beams noted with B were let repaired in bending only with NSM CFRP rods while the ones noted with SB were repaired in both bending and shear with NSM technique. The corrosion of the tensile steel bars and its effect on the shear capacity of the RC beams was discussed. Results showed that the FE model was able to capture the main aspects of the experimental load-deflection curves of the RC beams, moreover it has presented the experimental failure modes and FE numerical modelling crack patterns and both gave similar results for non-shear repaired beams which failed in diagonal tension mode of failure and for shear-repaired beams which failed due to large flexural crack at the middle of the beams along with the concrete crushing, three dimensional crack patterns were produced for shear-repaired beams in order to investigate the splitting cracks occurred at the middle of the beams and near the support.

A model to simulate the moment-rotation and crack width of FRC members reinforced with longitudinal bars

The present work describes a model for the determination of the moment–rotation relationship of a cross section of fiber reinforced concrete (FRC) elements that also include longitudinal bars for the flexural reinforcement (R/FRC). Since a stress–crack width relationship (σ–w)(σ–w) is used to model the post-cracking behavior of a FRC, the σ–w directly obtained from tensile tests, or derived from inverse analysis applied to the results obtained in three-point notched beam bending tests, can be adopted in this approach. For a more realistic assessment of the crack opening, a bond stress versus slip relationship is assumed to simulate the bond between longitudinal bars and surrounding FRC. To simulate the compression behavior of the FRC, a shear friction model is adopted based on the physical interpretation of the post-peak compression softening behavior registered in experimental tests. By allowing the formation of a compressive FRC wedge delimited by shear band zones, the concept of concrete crushing failure mode in beams failing in bending is reinterpreted. By using the moment–rotation relationship, an algorithm was developed to determine the force–deflection response of statically determinate R/FRC elements. The model is described in detail and its good predictive performance is demonstrated by using available experimental data. Parametric studies were executed to evidence the influence of relevant parameters of the model on the serviceability and ultimate design conditions of R/FRC elements failing in bending.

Numerical Assessment of the out-of-plane response of a brick masonry structure without box behaviour

This paper presents the assessment of the out-of-plane response due to seismic loading of a masonry structure without rigid diaphragm. This structure corresponds to real scale brick masonry specimen with a main façade connected to two return walls. Two modelling approaches were defined for this evaluation. The first one consisted on macro modelling, whereas the second one on simplified micro modelling. As a first step of this study, static nonlinear analyses were conducted to the macro model aiming at evaluating the out-of-plane response and failure mechanism of the masonry structure. A sensibility analyses was performed in order to assess the mesh size and material model dependency. In addition, the macro models were subjected to dynamic nonlinear analyses with time integration in order to assess the collapse mechanism. Finally, these analyses were also applied to a simplified micro model of the masonry structure. Furthermore, these results were compared to experimental response from shaking table tests. It was observed that these numerical techniques simulate correctly the in-plane behaviour of masonry structures. However, the

Effect of environmental ageing on the numerical response of FRP-strengthened masonry walls

Recent durability studies have shown the susceptibility of bond in fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) strengthened masonry components to hygrothermal exposures. However, it is not clear how this local material degradation affects the global behavior of FRP-strengthened masonry structures. This study addresses this issue by numerically investigating the nonlinear behavior of FRP-masonry walls after aging in two different environmental conditions. A numerical modeling strategy is adopted and validated with existing experimental tests on FRP-strengthened masonry panels. The model, once validated, is used for modeling of four hypothetical FRP-strengthened masonry walls with different boundary conditions, strengthening schemes, and reinforcement ratios. The nonlinear behavior of the walls is then simulated before and after aging in two different environmental conditions. The degradation data are taken from previous accelerated aging tests. The changes in the failure mode and nonlinear response of the walls after aging are presented and discussed.

An integrated system for human action recognition from video using hidden Markov model

In this paper, we present an integrated system for real-time automatic detection of human actions from video. The proposed approach uses the boundary of humans as the main feature for recognizing actions. Background subtraction is performed using Gaussian mixture model. Then, features are extracted from silhouettes and Vector Quantization is used to map features into symbols (bag of words approach). Finally, actions are detected using the Hidden Markov Model. The proposed system was validated using a newly collected real- world dataset. The obtained results show that the system is capable of achieving robust human detection, in both indoor and outdoor environments. Moreover, promising classification results were achieved when detecting two basic human actions: walking and sitting.

Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

Organização e gestão da manutencão de ferramentas numa empresa de produção de peças metálicas

Dissertação de mestrado Engenharia e Gestão da Qualidade

Spontaneous healing of Mycobacterium ulcerans lesions in the guinea pig model

Buruli Ulcer (BU) is a necrotizing skin disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans infection. BU is characterized by a wide range of clinical forms, including non-ulcerative cutaneous lesions that can evolve into severe ulcers if left untreated. Nevertheless, spontaneous healing has been reported to occur, although knowledge on this process is scarce both in naturally infected humans and experimental models of infection. Animal models are useful since they mimic different spectrums of human BU disease and have the potential to elucidate the pathogenic/protective pathway(s) involved in disease/healing. In this time-lapsed study, we characterized the guinea pig, an animal model of resistance to M. ulcerans, focusing on the macroscopic, microbiological and histological evolution throughout the entire experimental infectious process. Subcutaneous infection of guinea pigs with a virulent strain of M. ulcerans led to early localized swelling, which evolved into small well defined ulcers. These macroscopic observations correlated with the presence of necrosis, acute inflammatory infiltrate and an abundant bacterial load. By the end of the infectious process when ulcerative lesions healed, M. ulcerans viability decreased and the subcutaneous tissue organization returned to its normal state after a process of continuous healing characterized by tissue granulation and reepethelialization. In conclusion, we show that the experimental M. ulcerans infection of the guinea pig mimics the process of spontaneous healing described in BU patients, displaying the potential to uncover correlates of protection against BU, which can ultimately contribute to the development of new prophylactic and therapeutic strategies.

Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.

Sucesso escolar e percursos vocacionais na adolescência: variáveis pessoais e contextuais

Tese de Doutoramento Ciências da Educação (Especialidade em Psicologia da Educação)

Three-dimensional technology facilitates surgical performance of novice laparoscopy surgeons: a quantitative assessment on a porcine kidney model

Objective To determine whether the use of 3-dimensional (3D) imaging translates into a better surgical performance of naïve urologic laparoscopic surgeons during pyeloplasty (PY) and partial nephrectomy (PN) procedures. Materials and Methods Eighteen surgeons without any previous laparoscopic experience were randomly assigned to perform PY and PN in a porcine model using initially 2-dimensional (2D) and 3D laparoscopy. A surgical performance score was rated by an "expert" tutor through a modified 5-item global rating scale contemplating operative field view, bimanual dexterity, efficiency, tissue handling, and autonomy. Overall surgical time, complications, subjective perception of participating surgeons, and inconveniences related to the 3D vision were recorded. Results No difference in terms if operative time was found between 2D or 3D laparoscopy for both the PY (P =.51) and the PN (P =.28) procedures. A better rate in terms of surgical performance score was noted by the tutors when the study participants were using 3D vs 2D, for both PY (3.6 [0.8] vs 3.0 [0.4]; P =.034) and PN (3.6 [0.51] vs 3.15 [0.63]; P =.001). No complications occurred in any of the procedures. Most (77.2%) of the participating na??ve laparoscopic surgeons had the perception that 3D laparoscopy was overall easier than 2D. Headache (18.1%), nausea (18.1%), and visual disturbance (18.1%) were the most common issues reported by the surgeons during 3D procedures. Conclusion Despite the absence of translation in a shorter operative time, the use of 3D technology seems to facilitate the surgical performance of naive surgeons during laparoscopic kidney procedures on a porcine model.