Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Evaluation of the bond performance in FRP-brick components re-bonded after initial delamination

The bond behavior between Fiber Reinforced Polymers (FRPs) and masonry substrates has been the subject of many studies during the last years. Recent accelerated aging tests have shown that bond degradation and FRP delamination are likely to occur in FRP-strengthened masonry components under hygrothermal conditions. While an investigation on the possible methods to improve the durability of these systems is necessary, the applicability of different bond repair methods should also be studied. This paper aims at investigating the debonding mechanisms after repairing delaminated FRP-strengthened masonry components. FRP-strengthened brick specimens, after being delaminated, are repaired with two different adhesives: a conventional epoxy resin and a highly flexible polymer. The latter is used as an innovative adhesive in structural applications. The bond behavior in the repaired specimens is investigated by performing single-lap shear bond tests. Digital image correlation (DIC) is used for deeper investigation of the surface deformation and strains development. The effectiveness of the repair methods is discussed and compared with the strengthened specimens.

Assessment of the mechanical performance of recycled unbound materials for pavement subbase layers

The cyclic load triaxial test is a laboratory test that allows studying the mechanical behaviour of unbound granular materials used in base/subbase layers of road pavements. The resilient modulus and permanent strains are required as inputs in structural pavement design. This paper presents some results obtained for recycled materials (crushed concrete aggregate and blended crushed waste aggregate), with a view to promoting their use in pavement structures. Results relating to a reference material (limestone) are also presented, for comparison. All the test results discussed in this paper were obtained in variable cyclic radial pressure (VCP) tests. The tests performed (VCP) aim to study the influence of water content on the resilient modulus of recycled materials, as well as on the resistance to permanent deformation. Using the experimental data as a basis, further modelling work was carried out to establish the stresses developing in base/capping layers in typical Belgian road pavements. These numerical results allow to propose some simplifications of the stress paths applied in the testing procedures and to establish a new test protocol that also considers compaction during construction works. The results of this research work provide an excellent set of findings for the mechanical characterization of unbound base materials through the cyclic triaxial test, and contribute to a better understanding and correct application of recycled materials under geotechnical engineering background

Evolution of the functional properties of titanium–silver thin films for biomedical applications: Influence of in-vacuum annealing

In this work, the thermal stability of TiAgx thin films, deposited by magnetron sputtering, was evaluated, envisaging their application in biomedical devices, namely as electrodes for biosignal acquisition. Based on the composition and microstructural characterization, a set of four representative TiAgx thin films was selected in order to infer whether they are thermally stable in terms of functional properties. In order to achieve this purpose, the structural and morphological evolution of the films with annealing temperature was correlated with their electrical, mechanical and thermal properties. Two distinct zones were identified and two samples from each zone were extensively analysed. In the first zone (zone I), Ti was the main component (Ti-rich zone) while in the second, zone II, the Ag content was more significant. The selected samples were annealed in vacuum at four different temperatures up to 500 oC. For the samples produced within zone I, small microstructural changes were observed due to the recrystallization of the Ti structure and grain size increment. Also, no significant changes were observed with annealing temperature regarding the f l ’ functional properties, being thermally stable up to 500 oC. For higher Ag contents (zone II) the energy supplied by thermal treatments was sufficient to activate the crystallization of Ti-Ag intermetallic phases. A strong increase of the grain size of these phases was also reported. The structural and morphological organization proved to be determinant for the physical responses of the TiAgx system. The hardness and Y g’s modulus were significantly improved with the formation of the intermetallic phases. The silver addition and annealing treatments also played an important role in the electrical conductivity of the films, which was once again improved by the formation of Ti-Ag phases. The thermal diffusivity of the films was practically unchanged with the heat-treatment. This set of results shows that this intermetallic-like thin film system has good thermal stability up to high temperatures (as high as 500 oC), which in case of the highest Ag content zone is particularly evident for electrical and mechanical properties, showing an important improvement. Hardness increases about three times, while resistivity values become half of those from the lowest Ag contents zone. These set of characteristics are consistent with the targeted applications, namely in terms of biomedical sensing devices.

[Recensão a] Basílio, Margarida (2013). Formação e classes de palavras no português do Brasil

[Excerto] Antes de mais, impõe-se este esclarecimento: estamos na presença da 1.ª reimpressão da 3.ª edição (a 1.ª é de 2004) do livro em epígrafe, e a razão de só agora o estar a recensear (sabia contudo da sua existência há já alguns anos) tem simplesmente a ver com o facto de não há muito me ter chegado às mãos e, sobretudo, de só muito recentemente ter tido a oportunidade de o ler como deve ser, isto é, reflexivamente. Trata-se de um pequeno grande texto de uma especialista na matéria (Margarida Basílio, professora titular da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro), que conheço há longos anos de outros, de que destacaria Teoria lexical (São Paulo: Ática, 1987) e Estruturas lexicais do português: uma abordagem gerativa (Petrópolis: Vozes, 1980). Pequeno, é claro, só no número de páginas: nem sequer chega às cem (noventa e cinco, contabilizadas já as duas com as referências bibliográficas). Grande, deveras, no que diz respeito à temática e de modo particular ao seu tratamento: uma descrição de pendor didático dos padrões gerais e dos principais processos de formação de palavras na variedade brasileira do português. (...)