20 resultados para Bayesian risk prediction models


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The aim of this paper is to predict time series of SO2 concentrations emitted by coal-fired power stations in order to estimate in advance emission episodes and analyze the influence of some meteorological variables in the prediction. An emission episode is said to occur when the series of bi-hourly means of SO2 is greater than a specific level. For coal-fired power stations it is essential to predict emission epi- sodes sufficiently in advance so appropriate preventive measures can be taken. We proposed a meth- odology to predict SO2 emission episodes based on using an additive model and an algorithm for variable selection. The methodology was applied to the estimation of SO2 emissions registered in sampling lo- cations near a coal-fired power station located in Northern Spain. The results obtained indicate a good performance of the model considering only two terms of the time series and that the inclusion of the meteorological variables in the model is not significant.

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Stress exposure triggers cognitive and behavioral impairments that influence decision-making processes. Decisions under a context of uncertainty require complex reward-prediction processes that are known to be mediated by the mesocorticolimbic dopamine (DA) system in brain areas sensitive to the deleterious effects of chronic stress, in particular the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). Using a decision-making task, we show that chronic stress biases risk-based decision-making to safer behaviors. This decision-making pattern is associated with an increased activation of the lateral part of the OFC and with morphological changes in pyramidal neurons specifically recruited by this task. Additionally, stress exposure induces a hypodopaminergic status accompanied by increased mRNA levels of the dopamine receptor type 2 (Drd2) in the OFC; importantly, treatment with a D2/D3 agonist quinpirole reverts the shift to safer behaviors induced by stress on risky decision-making. These results suggest that the brain mechanisms related to risk-based decision-making are altered after chronic stress, but can be modulated by manipulation of dopaminergic transmission.

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Under the framework of constraint based modeling, genome-scale metabolic models (GSMMs) have been used for several tasks, such as metabolic engineering and phenotype prediction. More recently, their application in health related research has spanned drug discovery, biomarker identification and host-pathogen interactions, targeting diseases such as cancer, Alzheimer, obesity or diabetes. In the last years, the development of novel techniques for genome sequencing and other high-throughput methods, together with advances in Bioinformatics, allowed the reconstruction of GSMMs for human cells. Considering the diversity of cell types and tissues present in the human body, it is imperative to develop tissue-specific metabolic models. Methods to automatically generate these models, based on generic human metabolic models and a plethora of omics data, have been proposed. However, their results have not yet been adequately and critically evaluated and compared. This work presents a survey of the most important tissue or cell type specific metabolic model reconstruction methods, which use literature, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics data, together with a global template model. As a case study, we analyzed the consistency between several omics data sources and reconstructed distinct metabolic models of hepatocytes using different methods and data sources as inputs. The results show that omics data sources have a poor overlapping and, in some cases, are even contradictory. Additionally, the hepatocyte metabolic models generated are in many cases not able to perform metabolic functions known to be present in the liver tissue. We conclude that reliable methods for a priori omics data integration are required to support the reconstruction of complex models of human cells.

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"Series: Solid mechanics and its applications, vol. 226"

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"Published online before print November 20, 2015"