Estimating Bat and Bird Mortality Occurring at Wind Energy Turbines from Covariates and Carcass Searches Using Mixture Models

Environmental impacts of wind energy facilities increasingly cause concern, a central issue being bats and birds killed by rotor blades. Two approaches have been employed to assess collision rates: carcass searches and surveys of animals prone to collisions. Carcass searches can provide an estimate for the actual number of animals being killed but they offer little information on the relation between collision rates and, for example, weather parameters due to the time of death not being precisely known. In contrast, a density index of animals exposed to collision is sufficient to analyse the parameters influencing the collision rate. However, quantification of the collision rate from animal density indices (e.g. acoustic bat activity or bird migration traffic rates) remains difficult. We combine carcass search data with animal density indices in a mixture model to investigate collision rates. In a simulation study we show that the collision rates estimated by our model were at least as precise as conventional estimates based solely on carcass search data. Furthermore, if certain conditions are met, the model can be used to predict the collision rate from density indices alone, without data from carcass searches. This can reduce the time and effort required to estimate collision rates. We applied the model to bat carcass search data obtained at 30 wind turbines in 15 wind facilities in Germany. We used acoustic bat activity and wind speed as predictors for the collision rate. The model estimates correlated well with conventional estimators. Our model can be used to predict the average collision rate. It enables an analysis of the effect of parameters such as rotor diameter or turbine type on the collision rate. The model can also be used in turbine-specific curtailment algorithms that predict the collision rate and reduce this rate with a minimal loss of energy production.

An identification procedure of multi-input Wiener models for the distortion analysis of nonlinear circuits

In this contribution, a system identification procedure of a two-input Wiener model suitable for the analysis of the disturbance behavior of integrated nonlinear circuits is presented. The identified block model is comprised of two linear dynamic and one static nonlinear block, which are determined using an parameterized approach. In order to characterize the linear blocks, an correlation analysis using a white noise input in combination with a model reduction scheme is adopted. After having characterized the linear blocks, from the output spectrum under single tone excitation at each input a linear set of equations will be set up, whose solution gives the coefficients of the nonlinear block. By this data based black box approach, the distortion behavior of a nonlinear circuit under the influence of an interfering signal at an arbitrary input port can be determined. Such an interfering signal can be, for example, an electromagnetic interference signal which conductively couples into the port of consideration. © 2011 Author(s).