Estimating Bat and Bird Mortality Occurring at Wind Energy Turbines from Covariates and Carcass Searches Using Mixture Models

Environmental impacts of wind energy facilities increasingly cause concern, a central issue being bats and birds killed by rotor blades. Two approaches have been employed to assess collision rates: carcass searches and surveys of animals prone to collisions. Carcass searches can provide an estimate for the actual number of animals being killed but they offer little information on the relation between collision rates and, for example, weather parameters due to the time of death not being precisely known. In contrast, a density index of animals exposed to collision is sufficient to analyse the parameters influencing the collision rate. However, quantification of the collision rate from animal density indices (e.g. acoustic bat activity or bird migration traffic rates) remains difficult. We combine carcass search data with animal density indices in a mixture model to investigate collision rates. In a simulation study we show that the collision rates estimated by our model were at least as precise as conventional estimates based solely on carcass search data. Furthermore, if certain conditions are met, the model can be used to predict the collision rate from density indices alone, without data from carcass searches. This can reduce the time and effort required to estimate collision rates. We applied the model to bat carcass search data obtained at 30 wind turbines in 15 wind facilities in Germany. We used acoustic bat activity and wind speed as predictors for the collision rate. The model estimates correlated well with conventional estimators. Our model can be used to predict the average collision rate. It enables an analysis of the effect of parameters such as rotor diameter or turbine type on the collision rate. The model can also be used in turbine-specific curtailment algorithms that predict the collision rate and reduce this rate with a minimal loss of energy production.

Effect of Geometric Uncertainties on the Aerodynamic Characteristic of Offshore Wind Turbine Blades

Offshore wind turbines operate in a complex unsteady flow environment which causes unsteady aerodynamic loads. The unsteady flow environment is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. In addition, geometry variations and material imperfections also cause uncertainties in the design process. Probabilistic design methods consider these uncertainties in order to reach acceptable reliability and safety levels for offshore wind turbines. Variations of the rotor blade geometry influence the aerodynamic loads which also affect the reliability of other wind turbine components. Therefore, the present paper is dealing with geometric uncertainties of the rotor blades. These can arise from manufacturing tolerances and operational wear of the blades. First, the effect of geometry variations of wind turbine airfoils on the lift and drag coefficients are investigated using a Latin hypercube sampling. Then, the resulting effects on the performance and the blade loads of an offshore wind turbine are analyzed. The variations of the airfoil geometry lead to a significant scatter of the lift and drag coefficients which also affects the damage-equivalent flapwise bending moments. In contrast to that, the effects on the power and the annual energy production are almost negligible with regard to the assumptions made.