Parameter Identification in a Tuberculosis Model for Cameroon

A deterministic model of tuberculosis in Cameroon is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes lack of access to treatment and weak diagnosis capacity as well as both frequency-and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and the most sensitive ones are identified by means of a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities are seen to have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. The model predicts that a gradual increase of these parameters could significantly reduce the disease burden on the population within the next 15 years.

Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

High-temperature superconductivity in the two-dimensional t-J model: Gutzwiller wavefunction solution

A systematic diagrammatic expansion for Gutzwiller wavefunctions (DE-GWFs) proposed very recently is used for the description of the superconducting (SC) ground state in the two-dimensional square-lattice t-J model with the hopping electron amplitudes t (and t') between nearest (and next-nearest) neighbors. For the example of the SC state analysis we provide a detailed comparison of the method's results with those of other approaches. Namely, (i) the truncated DE-GWF method reproduces the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) results and (ii) in the lowest (zeroth) order of the expansion the method can reproduce the analytical results of the standard Gutzwiller approximation (GA), as well as of the recently proposed 'grand-canonical Gutzwiller approximation' (called either GCGA or SGA). We obtain important features of the SC state. First, the SC gap at the Fermi surface resembles a d(x2-y2) wave only for optimally and overdoped systems, being diminished in the antinodal regions for the underdoped case in a qualitative agreement with experiment. Corrections to the gap structure are shown to arise from the longer range of the real-space pairing. Second, the nodal Fermi velocity is almost constant as a function of doping and agrees semi-quantitatively with experimental results. Third, we compare the