Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

Rate of Belowground Carbon Allocation Differs with Successional Habit of Two Afromontane Trees

Background: Anthropogenic disturbance of old-growth tropical forests increases the abundance of early successional tree species at the cost of late successional ones. Quantifying differences in terms of carbon allocation and the proportion of recently fixed carbon in soil CO2 efflux is crucial for addressing the carbon footprint of creeping degradation. Methodology: We compared the carbon allocation pattern of the late successional gymnosperm Podocarpus falcatus (Thunb.) Mirb. and the early successional (gap filling) angiosperm Croton macrostachyus Hochst. es Del. in an Ethiopian Afromontane forest by whole tree (CO2)-C-13 pulse labeling. Over a one-year period we monitored the temporal resolution of the label in the foliage, the phloem sap, the arbuscular mycorrhiza, and in soil-derived CO2. Further, we quantified the overall losses of assimilated C-13 with soil CO2 efflux. Principal Findings: C-13 in leaves of C. macrostachyus declined more rapidly with a larger size of a fast pool (64% vs. 50% of the assimilated carbon), having a shorter mean residence time (14 h vs. 55 h) as in leaves of P. falcatus. Phloem sap velocity was about 4 times higher for C. macrostachyus. Likewise, the label appeared earlier in the arbuscular mycorrhiza of C. macrostachyus and in the soil CO2 efflux as in case of P. falcatus (24 h vs. 72 h). Within one year soil CO2 efflux amounted to a loss of 32% of assimilated carbon for the gap filling tree and to 15% for the late successional one. Conclusions: Our results showed clear differences in carbon allocation patterns between tree species, although we caution that this experiment was unreplicated. A shift in tree species composition of tropical montane forests (e. g., by degradation) accelerates carbon allocation belowground and increases respiratory carbon losses by the autotrophic community. If ongoing disturbance keeps early successional species in dominance, the larger allocation to fast cycling compartments may deplete soil organic carbon in the long run.